December 16, 2017
Summary: Strong winds and blowing dust are affecting primarily the far western side of the San Joaquin Valley. At last report, Kettleman had wind gusts of 43 MPH and Panoche Road was reporting gusts to 48 MPH. Winds on the east side are generally light from Fresno southward and will remain so as the winds slowly subside on the west side tonight.
The trough of low pressure that moved through early this morning has now moved through southern California and is forming a low center over northwest Mexico. In the meantime, surface high pressure is building over the Great Basin and upper level high pressure is taking shape off shore. This will create another strong off shore flow later tonight and Sunday. The air mass now moving in is colder. Temperatures on the valley floor this afternoon are 3 to 7 degrees cooler than yesterday. In the mountains, temperatures are anywhere from 20 to 35 degrees colder as much colder air is moving in above the valley floor. This will create somewhat of a teaser for overnight low temperatures tonight with more confidence Monday through Tuesday mornings. More on this in the frost discussion below.
It’s still difficult to nail down potential cold weather for the 22 through the 26. Some models are showing Arctic air moving in mainly into the interior west and points eastward while others show it moving in farther west. In that case, cold air would invade Cali with the potential for low to mid 20s. So for now, one possibility is for generally mid to upper 20s with the other possibility being low to mid 20s. I wish I could be more defined on this, but for now this is the way it’ll have to be.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Tuesday night. partly cloudy Wednesday and Wednesday night. mostly clear Thursday through Saturday.
Short Term:
Madera 28/59/26/62 | Reedley 27/58/26/61 | Dinuba 27/58/26/63 | |
Porterville 27/60/26/64 | Lindsay 26/60/25/63 | Delano 28/60/27/64 | |
Bakersfield 31/60/29/65 | Arvin 27/61/26/65 | Taft 38/61/30/65 | |
Lamont 29/60/28/65 | Pixley 27/59/26/64 | Tulare 26/58/25/63 | |
Woodlake 27/59/26/63 | Hanford 27/60/26/63 | Orosi 27/59/26/63 |
Winds: Strong, gusty northwest winds are currently buffeting the west side, especially along the Interstate 5 corridor. At Panoche Road in extreme western Fresno County, gusts have approached 50 MPH where down the road at Kettleman, gusts to 43 MPH have been reported. Winds on the east side are generally light from Fresno County southward. The strong winds on the west side will begin to diminish this evening, becoming light by dawn. Winds Sunday through Tuesday will generally be in the 5 to 10 MPH range with periods of near calm conditions. The next period of elevated winds is due Wednesday.
Rain: Expect dry weather for at least the next seven to ten days.
Frost Information: it is much cooler this afternoon as readings are anywhere from 3 to 7 degrees lower than 24 hours ago. Colder air is certainly moving in above the valley floor. Dew points from Madera southward are still in the mid to upper 30s even the lower 40s in some locations. However, from Merced County northward, dew points are down into the mid 20s as they also are along the west side of the valley. This drier air will begin to invade the remainder of the valley overnight, so the air will become drier as the night wears on. Forecasting lows tonight will be a difficult task as mixing may occur tonight, in which case readings would be milder than forecast. However, I can’t count on that as locations where the winds become calm could easily drop into the mid 20s.
The inversion tonight will be weak with temperatures at 34 feet 2 to 5 degrees warmer.
Temperatures for Monday and Tuesday mornings could drop to between 23 to 25 in the coldest unprotected low spots out there and 25 to 28 elsewhere.
Wednesday morning is a bit of a toss up as we may see increased cloud cover sometime late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. For now, it looks like even colder air will be moving in for the potential of a hard freeze as early as Thursday morning, but Friday and Saturday appear to be the nights to be watched as temps could dip to 22 to 25 in those low spots and 25 to 29 elsewhere.
As far as the period from the 22 to the 26 goes, there’s two possible scenarios. In either case, upper level high pressure will build far to the north along the west coast as a low develops over northwest Mexico. This is a perfect recipe for a strong off shore wind event and would also bring the winds aloft out of the northeast, pumping modified Arctic air into the region for some possible low to mid 20s. Scenario 2 moves the Arctic air further east, keeping the air mass east of the Sierra Nevada, in which case temperatures would be manageable and not much different from what we’re currently experiencing.
Lows Tonight:
Terra Bella
26 |
Porterville
27 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Woodlake
27 |
Strathmore
27 |
McFarland
26 |
Ducor
27 |
Tea Pot Dome
27 |
Lindsay
25 |
Exeter
25 |
Famoso
28 |
Madera
28 |
Belridge
33 |
Delano
28 |
North Bakersfield
28 |
Orosi
25 |
Orange Cove
26 |
Lindcove
25 |
Lindcove hillside
31 |
Sanger River Bottom
23 |
Root Creek
25 |
Venice Hill
26 |
Rosedale
28 |
Jasmine
28 |
Arvin
27 |
Lamont
28 |
Plainview
26 |
Mettler
29 |
Edison
28 |
Maricopa
30 |
Holland Creek
30 |
Tivy Valley
27 |
Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
27 |
Next Report: Sunday morning/December 17