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Forecast

December 16, 2017/report

December 16, 2017

Summary: A dry cold front moved down the valley during the early morning hours with cloud cover and gusty winds from Merced County northward.  Those winds are working their way down the west side of the valley.  The cloud cover combined with mixing of the atmosphere allowed temperatures to finally be above freezing at all locations.  A return to mid to upper 20s tonight as a result of clear skies and radiational cooling.  We could see even colder times Monday and Tuesday mornings.

 

Another dry trough of low pressure and its associated cold front will move through central California Wednesday.  Beginning Thursday morning, temperatures could possibly be a tad colder than already experienced with low 20s possible in the river bottom and like, unprotected areas.

 

Longer term, models keep flip flopping for the period of the 22 through the 26.  This morning’s runs, on at least some models, are showing a high jutting northward along the west coast into western Canada with a low developing over northwest Mexico.  This would create a north/northeast flow down the west coast pumping cold air into at least the interior west and possibly California.  The risk of potentially very cold nights is still there, but by no means guaranteed, mainly from the 23 on.  We’ll see what models have to say this afternoon and will keep you updated.  Models will eventually become more uniform as we approach this time frame, giving us a better handle on how to project the situation.  For now, though, the possibility of a hard freeze is very speculative, and will simply depend on the weather’s players.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Tuesday night.  partly cloudy Wednesday and Wednesday night.  mostly clear Thursday through Saturday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 58/28/59/26/62 Reedley 59/27/59/26/63 Dinuba 58/27/59/26/63
Porterville 60/28/59/27/64 Lindsay 60/26/59/26/64 Delano 59/29/59/27/63
Bakersfield 59/32/60/30/65 Arvin 61/28/60/27/65 Taft 61/34/60/31/65
Lamont 59/29/60/28/65 Pixley 58/28/60/27/65 Tulare 58/26/59/25/65
Woodlake 59/27/60/26/65 Hanford 60/27/60/26/63 Orosi 59/27/60/26/63

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Mostly clear

27/62

Wednesday

Partly cloudy

33/64

Thursday

Mostly clear

28/55

Friday

Mostly clear

26/59

Saturday

Mostly clear

28/63

 

Two Week Outlook:  December 22 through December 28: This model is showing colder than average temperatures through the entire period as a colder air mass could potentially invade the area.  It does not look encouraging for rainfall as upper level high pressure will remain along the west coast.

 

December:  This model is indicating a better than even chance of above average temperatures for central and southern California all the way to the southeast with near to below average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest.  As far as precipitation is concerned, this model does show better than average precip over Washington and Oregon and near average rainfall over central and northern California.

 

December, January, February:  If this model is to be believed, winter this year will experience somewhat above average temperatures from California, stretching eastward and southward.  Below average temperatures would prevail from the northern Rockies through the Plains states.  As far as California is concerned, precipitation would be near to marginally below average with temperatures marginally above average, but take all this with a grain of salt.

 

Winds:  Along the west side, winds will be out of the northwest through this evening at 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH possible.  Elsewhere, south of Madera County winds will generally be in the 5 to 15 MPH range, becoming light overnight with periods of near calm conditions.  Winds Sunday through Tuesday will generally be in the 5 to 10 MPH range with periods of near calm conditions.  Elevated winds are possible beginning Wednesday.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

 

Frost:  At last, temperatures last night were above freezing with widespread mid to upper 30s and even a few low 40s.  that will come to a grinding halt once again tonight as a shot of cold dry air is moving down the valley from the north behind the cold front, which is now moving into southern California.  Coldest locations tonight will range from 24 to 27 with most flat terrain regions in the 26 to 30 degree range and hillsides generally being in the low to mid 30s.

 

The inversion tonight will be much weaker with temperatures at 34 feet anywhere from 2 to 5 degrees warmer, especially during the early morning hours.

 

Monday through Tuesday mornings could be a tad colder as the atmosphere settles down with potential lows in the 23 to 25 degree range in unprotected low spots.  Another dry trough of low pressure will drive through Wednesday, hopefully bringing some cloud cover with it.  Models vary on this, but even colder air could arrive Wednesday with lows possibly down into the 22 to 25 degree range Thursday through Saturday mornings with most locations at 25 to 28.

 

Models are very unclear on this at this time, but consider this at least a possibility as a strong northeast flow develops aloft along with a strong off shore flow.

 

We are still looking at a few days before Christmas and the possible ramifications of a weather pattern.  Models this morning are again mixed on the potential, but are leaning towards a big high ridging northward into western Canada and a north to northeast flow aloft.  Models this morning place a low pressure system over northern Mexico which would aid in generating a strong off shore flow.  This could drop temperatures into the low to mid 20s, but I’m still very much taking a wait and see attitude as some models show the coldest air going into the Rockies and points eastward.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

26

Porterville

27

Ivanhoe

27

Woodlake

28

Strathmore

27

McFarland

26

Ducor

27

Tea Pot Dome

27

Lindsay

26

Exeter

25

Famoso

28

Madera

27

Belridge

27

Delano

28

North Bakersfield

28

Orosi

26

Orange Cove

27

Lindcove

25

Lindcove Hillside

31

Sanger River Bottom

24

Root Creek

25

Venice Hill

27

Rosedale

28

Jasmine

27

Arvin

27

Lamont

29

Plainview

27

Mettler

30

Edison

28

Maricopa

28

Holland Creek

29

Tivy Valley

26

Kite Road South

29

Kite Road North

27

 

AF=Above Freezing

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s.  Bakersfield, low to mid 30s.

Relative Humidity Forecast:  Hanford, 40%/95%  Bakersfield, 35%/70%

Actual Humidity December 14, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 96%/34%

+%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 100%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days December 14, 2017: Stratford .42, Parlier .36, Blackwell, .50 Lindcove .42, Arvin .48, Orange Cove .43, Porterville .36, Delano .NA., Madera Two .36.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 49, Parlier 49, Blackwell 53, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove 49, Porterville 50, Delano NA, Madera Two 51

 

Mean Temperatures for December. Month So Far: 47.1 +1.8

Record Temperatures: 76/25. Average Temperatures: 55/35

Heating Degree Days this Season: 551, -228 Courtesy of the NWS

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since December 14, 2017  Fresno: .37 season. or -1.99.  Month to Date: T

Since December 14, 2017,  Bakersfield:  .03, or -1.31,  Month to Date: ..00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 281, Parlier, 299, Arvin, 238, Shafter, 337, Stratford, 301, Madera two, 445, Alpaugh, 283, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 271, Porterville, 421.  Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 7:05 am  Sunset: 4:44 pm. Hours of Daylight:  9:38

 

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  63 /  30 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  62 /  35 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  64 /  30 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  63 /   M / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  68 /  35 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  62 /  30 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1550 /  69 /  32 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  67 /  29 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1556 /  69 /  44 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /   M /  34 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                                                       Season     %        Last y.   %           Ave.       Annual Ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.91    26    5.45   157     3.48    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.98    34    4.10   141     2.91    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    1.03    41    3.68   146     2.52    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.32    12    3.46   130     2.66    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.37    15    3.88   161     2.41    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.37    19    1.86    96     1.94    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.03     2    0.78    57     1.38     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.16    14    0.09     8     1.12     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.75    27    3.74   133     2.82    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.25    10    3.40   139     2.45    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.09     3    3.71   132     2.81    13.95

 

Next Report: Saturday, December 16/pm