December 27, 2017
Summary: The weather pattern for the remainder of the week will be stagnant as strong upper level high pressure continues to create a warm inversion above the valley floor. Temperatures at about 4,000 feet are actually in the low 50s. the freezing level is at 12,100 feet. In the meantime, on the valley floor temperatures range from isolated pockets of mid 20s to lower 30s, mainly in Kern County.
The trend of mild afternoons and cold nights will continue as a layer of very dry air will remain trapped on the valley floor. This will result in hazy conditions as absolutely no mixing is occurring. Models for the first of the year are still at war with one another. One shows a low pressure system moving in from the west. If this happens, there would be a decent chance of rain. Another one is just as adamant in keeping a ridge just off shore which would not allow the storm to move inland. Considering the trend of the past month, we’ll go with a dry forecast and determine down the road which model wins the war.
Forecast: Other than occasional high, thin clouds and a few patches of fog during the late night and early morning, it will be mostly clear through Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night through Tuesday. Mostly clear Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 64/30/63/29/65 | Reedley 63/29/62/29/65 | Dinuba 62/28/63/28/64 | |
| Porterville 64/28/62/29/65 | Lindsay 63/28/62/29/66 | Delano 64/30/62/30/66 | |
| Bakersfield 65/36/64/37/66 | Arvin 66/33/63/33/66 | Taft 65/39/63/39/66 | |
| Lamont 65/29/63/29/67 | Pixley 64/29/64/30/65 | Tulare 63/28/63/29/64 | |
| Woodlake 64/29/62/29/64 | Hanford 64/29/64/29/65 | Orosi 63/28/63/29/64 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 32/66 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 31/64 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 34/65 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 35/65 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 34/66 |
Two Week Outlook: January 2 through January 8: This model indicates a ridge of upper level high pressure will be off shore and over the western states with daytime temperatures reaching above average values. Overnight lows may still chill to below average. The chance of precipitation during this period appears quite low.
January: Overall during January this season, temperatures should range somewhat above average. This model also shows equal chances of near average precipitation over the northern half of the state but below average precip over the southern half of California. We remain between these two It forecasts, so hopefully precipitation will be near seasonal levels.
January, February, March: This model is not hopeful for above average precipitation, or even average precipitation. Overall, upper level high pressure is projected to be the most dominant feature for the next three months, resulting in average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.
Rain: Expect dry weather through at least Sunday. For Monday and Tuesday, there remains some uncertainty as one model shows a blocking ridge just off shore while another shows a low pressure system moving through for a chance of rain. For now, we’ll go with a dry forecast and see if models can finally get their act together for either dry or potentially wet weather to begin the new year.
Frost: As of 6:00am, most locations were in the upper 20s to the lower 30s. The coldest I could find was 27 at Navelencia.
Here we go again with mild afternoons, possibly into the upper 60s Friday. However, we’re still dealing with a very dry air mass trapped on the valley floor under a strong high which has created a strong warm air inversion, trapping a lot of haze on the valley floor. With strong radiational cooling again tonight, the coldest locations will drop to 26 to 27 degrees with most locations in the upper 20s to lower 30s. I see no reason to really change the forecast for the remainder of the week with a continuation of strong radiational cooling each night. Highs will continue to be well into the 60s during the day with overnight lows in the cold spots in the upper 20s to the mid 30s.
There is conflict on models for the first and second of January. One points to wet weather with another showing the same dry ridge over California. If we do finally get some decent cloud cover, temperatures could actually be above freezing to start the new year, but for now we’ll continue with upper 20s to mid 30s until we can somehow get an exchange of air masses.
The inversion tonight will again be strong with temperatures 5 to 8 degrees warmer at 34 feet at most locations.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
28 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
27 |
McFarland
27 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
25 |
| Root Creek
28 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
32 |
Lamont
28 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
32 |
Maricopa
29 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
28 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid 30s to near 40. Low to mid 30s
Humidity, Visalia, 45%/100% Bakersfield, 35%/75%
Actual Humidity December 25, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 96%/48%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 90% tomorrow 90%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 90%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days December 25, 2017: Stratford .34, Parlier .31, Blackwell, .37 Lindcove .30, Arvin .38, Orange Cove .36, Porterville .28, Delano .NA., Madera Two .38. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 48, Parlier 48, Blackwell 51, Lindcove, 52, Arvin, 49, Orange Cove 47, Porterville 48, Delano NA, Madera Two 50
Mean Temperatures for December. Month So Far: 46.1 +1.4
Record Temperatures: 70/21. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 770, -233 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: .41 season. or -2.65. Month to Date: .04
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: .07, or -1.66, Month to Date: .04
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 419, Parlier, 447, Arvin, 396, Shafter, 508, Stratford, 455, Madera two, 598, Alpaugh, NA, Lindcove, 498, Porterville, 593. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:10 am Sunset: 4:49 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:38
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 65 / 39 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 63 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 64 / 39 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 65 / 39 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 65 / 41 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 63 / 40 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1553 / 65 / 40 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 66 / 37 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 62 / 42 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 65 / 40 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.96 22 6.07 140 4.34 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.03 28 4.97 134 3.71 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.11 35 4.19 133 3.16 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.41 12 3.97 118 3.37 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.41 13 4.47 143 3.13 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.41 15 2.52 94 2.69 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.07 4 2.12 120 1.77 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 11 0.36 25 1.44 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.78 22 4.00 112 3.56 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.27 8 3.68 113 3.26 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.12 3 4.77 131 3.63 13.9
Next Report: Wednesday, December 27/pm