December 28, 2017
Summary: Through New Year’s Eve, strong upper level high pressure currently off shore will park directly over California Friday through Sunday, actually causing the high to strengthen. This will drive daytime highs anywhere from 10 to 15 degrees above average. The same old process will occur with mild days and subfreezing overnight lows in colder locations.
There is a bit of a trend developing on some models which indicates what may be a fairly strong low pressure system finally breaking down the high Tuesday night and Wednesday. Rain is by no means guaranteed at this time, but at least a small chance of rain seems to exist during that time frame. At the very least, we will enjoy increased cloud cover which will allow overnight lows to remain above freezing and also possibly raise dew points up to more acceptable levels.
Even models for Thursday and Friday are indicating there’s at least a slight chance of rain as a trough of low pressure replaces the long term high pressure system which has dominated our pattern through the entire month of December.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds and a few shallow patches of fog during the nights and mornings, it will be mostly clear through Sunday. Partly cloudy Monday through Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night with a chance of rain late Tuesday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 30/64/31/65 | Reedley 29/65/30/65 | Dinuba 29/64/29/65 | |
| Porterville 29/65/30/66 | Lindsay 28/65/29/66 | Delano 31/65/31/66 | |
| Bakersfield 37/66/38/67 | Arvin 34/66/35/67 | Taft 40/66/41/67 | |
| Lamont 29/66/30/67 | Pixley 29/65/30/66 | Tulare 28/63/29/65 | |
| Woodlake 29/64/30/65 | Hanford 30/64/31/65 | Orosi 29/65/30/66 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Sunday with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry weather at least through Tuesday. For the second day in a row, some of the forecast models are indicating a low pressure system will finally break through the high about the middle of next week. Models range from possibly significant precipitation to just light showers to no precipitation at all. However, there are stronger indications this afternoon of a breakdown in the high, so I believe it’s appropriate to add a chance of showers from late Tuesday night through Thursday.
Frost Information: Upper 20s and lower 30s were widespread last night north of Kern County and generally in the low to mid 30s in portions of Kern County. I anticipate similar conditions tonight as generally clear skies will allow another night of strong radiational cooling. Dew points are roughly the same as they have been, so there’s no reason to believe that this trend won’t continue.
There are some high, thin clouds rotating over the top of the high with some of these clouds moving from northwest to southeast into central California. Like previous nights, these clouds will be too thin to really make much difference. There is the possibility that subtropical clouds could move into the southern half of the state during the second half of the weekend. However, most models indicate these clouds will simply remain to the south.
The inversion tonight will again be strong with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 5 to 8 degrees warmer. Beginning Monday, we should start to observe more cloud cover as the high slowly weakens. Models are also indicating an increase in clouds Tuesday leading to the possibility of rain later Tuesday night through Thursday. Obviously, this would keep conditions above freezing and would raise dew points on the valley floor for a period of days with above freezing conditions.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
28 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
31 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
28 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
31 |
Jasmine
30 |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
29 |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
29 |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
AF |
Kite Road North
30s |
Next Report: Friday, December 29