December 28, 2017
Summary: Upper level high pressure remains centered a few hundred miles west of the California coast. The western one-third of the U.S. is on the eastern flank of the high, meaning there will be no precipitation at least through the first few days of January. The main storm track continues to ride up over the top of the high before moving inland through Washington and southern British Columbia. Models indicate the high will shift eastward and center river over California Friday through at least the first or second of January. This will keep conditions hazy with mild afternoons and subfreezing nights right through the New Year with possibly a shallow patch of fog during the late night or early morning hours.
Models are in conflict for the period beginning Wednesday of next week. One model shows a weakening system moving through for a chance of rain but others show the high sticking around, blocking the storm from moving inland. Considering the consistent blocking pattern we’ve been under, we’ll continue to go with a dry forecast through Thursday of next week or when…or if…models become more consistent.
Forecast: Mostly clear and hazy with occasional high clouds through Sunday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 62/30/64/30/65 | Reedley 63/28/64/29/65 | Dinuba 62/28/64/29/64 | |
| Porterville 63/29/65/29/66 | Lindsay 63/29/64/29/66 | Delano 64/30/66/30/67 | |
| Bakersfield 64/37/67/37/67 | Arvin 64/34/67/34/68 | Taft 64/39/67/39/67 | |
| Lamont 64/29/67/29/67 | Pixley 65/29/66/30/67 | Tulare 62/28/64/29/65 | |
| Woodlake 63/29/64/29/65 | Hanford 63/30/64/30/66 | Orosi 63/28/64/28/65 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Partly cloudy 31/66 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 34/65 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 36/66 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 37/67 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 37/67 |
Two Week Outlook: January 2 through January 8: This model indicates a ridge of upper level high pressure will be off shore and over the western states with daytime temperatures reaching above average values. Overnight lows may still chill to below average. The chance of precipitation during this period appears quite low.
January: Overall during January this season, temperatures should range somewhat above average. This model also shows equal chances of near average precipitation over the northern half of the state but below average precip over the southern half of California. We remain between these two It forecasts, so hopefully precipitation will be near seasonal levels.
January, February, March: This model is not hopeful for above average precipitation, or even average precipitation. Overall, upper level high pressure is projected to be the most dominant feature for the next three months, resulting in average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday.
Rain: Expect dry weather for at least the next week to ten days.
Frost: Temperatures this morning are in the upper 20s and lower 30s on a widespread basis with the exception of parts of Kern County which are in the low to mid 30s. upper level high pressure off shore will extend inland Friday through Monday, resulting in mild, hazy conditions with mostly clear skies and just occasional high clouds. This will continue to allow for strong radiational cooling each night with colder locations generally in the 27 to 28 degree range and most other locations between 27 and 33. Hillsides will be above freezing.
The inversion tonight will continue to be strong with temperatures at 34 feet anywhere from 5 to 8 degrees warmer at most locations.
Beginning late Sunday or Monday, low pressure will try, but ultimately fail, to move inland through California. I’m hoping for enough cloud cover over the valley to allow temperatures to move up above freezing at most locations. There’s no guarantee at this time due to the strong and persistent upper high. One model is suggesting the possibility of rain next week, but the rest are saying that won’t happen. For now, I’ll just assume we’ll continue the trend of lots of upper 20s to lower 30s through the holiday weekend, possibly modifying by Tuesday, but we’ll see.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
28 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
28 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
31 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
34 |
Lamont
30 |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
29 |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
34 |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid 30s to near 40. Mid to upper 30s.
Humidity, Visalia, 55%/100% Bakersfield, 40%/80%
Actual Humidity December 26, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 92%/30%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 80%, Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 90%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days December 26, 2017: Stratford .34, Parlier .30, Blackwell, .35 Lindcove .29, Arvin .36, Orange Cove .35, Porterville .27, Delano .NA., Madera Two .29. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 48, Parlier 48, Blackwell 50, Lindcove, 52, Arvin, 49, Orange Cove 46, Porterville 48, Delano NA, Madera Two 50
Mean Temperatures for December. Month So Far: 46.3 +1.6
Record Temperatures: 72/23. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 785, -239 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: .41 season. or -2.72. Month to Date: .04
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: .07, or -1.70, Month to Date: .04
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 431, Parlier, 461, Arvin, 408, Shafter, 522, Stratford, 468, Madera two, 615, Alpaugh, NA, Lindcove, 443, Porterville, 607. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:11 am Sunset: 4:50 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:38
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 61 / 31 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 61 / 35 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 64 / 31 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 64 / 30 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 62 / 37 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 62 / 33 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1557 / 62 / 37 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 62 / 32 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1557 / 59 / 43 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 61 / 37 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.96 22 6.07 137 4.42 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.03 27 4.97 131 3.78 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.11 34 4.19 130 3.23 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.41 12 3.97 115 3.45 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.41 13 4.47 140 3.19 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.41 15 2.52 91 2.78 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.07 4 2.12 117 1.81 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 11 0.36 24 1.47 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.78 21 4.00 110 3.63 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.27 8 3.68 110 3.34 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.12 3 4.77 128 3.72 13.95
Next Report: Thursday, December 28/pm