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Forecast

December 31, 2017/report

Summary: Considerable high cloudiness streamed over the valley during the night from the west/southwest.  This allowed the radiational cooling process to slow and above freezing temperatures were noted for a change.  Strong upper level high pressure is nevertheless maintaining itself well as these clouds stream over the top of the high from the mid Pacific.

 

Models indicate there will be a fairly wide gap in the cloud cover tonight which may allow temperatures at least in some locations to fall to freezing or just below.  A cap remains  over the valley floor, continuing to keep the warm air inversion in place.  As a result, the particulate matter in the lower 1000 feet of the atmosphere is trapped on the valley floor for very hazy conditions which will continue through Tuesday.

 

A mild Pacific storm will approach the coast Wednesday.  It still appears the bulk of the energy from this system will move into northern California, but a chance of showers still exists for the valley, especially from Fresno County north. High snow levels can be expected due to the sub tropical nature of this system.

 

Beyond Wednesday, models are in a state of flux.  The bottom line, though, is the strong ridge of high pressure will be gone so there will at least be a chance of rain Wednesday through Thursday of this week.

 

Models for the medium range are also inconsistent, but still show at least a chance of rain next week.

 

Forecast: a mix of high clouds and sunshine today.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy tonight and New Year’s Day.  Variable cloudiness at times New Year’s night through Tuesday night.  mostly cloudy Wednesday through Thursday night with a chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno northward.  Variable cloudiness Friday through Sunday with a chance of showers.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 65/31/64/36/64 Reedley 66/31/64/35/64 Dinuba 65/30/64/36/64
Porterville 67/30/64/35/65 Lindsay 66/30/64/34/65 Delano 66/32/65/36/65
Bakersfield 70/38/67/41/67 Arvin 70/35/65/37/67 Taft 69/43/65/44/67
Lamont 68/31/64/37/66 Pixley 66/30/65/36/65 Tulare 65/39/64/39/64
Woodlake 66/30/64/35/65 Hanford 66/31/64/35/65 Orosi 66/30/64/35/64

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Wednesday

Chance of showers

45/66

Thursday

Chance of showers

50/68

Friday

Partly cloudy

51/65

Saturday

Chance of showers

50/65

Sunday

Chance of showers

48/62

 

Two Week Outlook:  January 5 through January 11:  This model is showing a more favorable pattern for wet weather returning to central California as the blocking high has vanished.  Currently, it appears Pacific storms will be of a mild nature so temperatures are likely to remain above seasonal average.

 

January:  Overall during January this season, temperatures should range somewhat above average.  This model also shows equal chances of near average precipitation over the northern half of the state but below average precip over the southern half of California.  We remain between these two It forecasts, so hopefully precipitation will be near seasonal levels.

 

January, February, March:  This model is not hopeful for above average precipitation, or even average precipitation.  Overall, upper level high pressure is projected to be the most dominant feature for the next three months, resulting in average temperatures.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Wednesday.

 

Rain:  Expect dry weather through at least Tuesday night.  a low pressure system of subtropical nature will approach mainly the northern California coast Wednesday, spreading showers over northern California and possibly central California, mainly from Fresno County northward.  Significant precipitation is not expected as the main dynamics will be to our north.

 

Models for Thursday through Sunday of this week are all over the place, but with the strong upper high removed, the potential for showers on any given day is there, depending on the timing and strength of any given system that approaches from the west of southwest.  If we do get the benefits of precipitation, snow levels will be high with generally a southwesterly flow prevailing.

 

Frost:  The high cloud cover overnight did the job, keeping conditions above freezing.  The coldest I  could find was Navelencia which was 33 degrees.

 

Somewhat of a tricky forecast for tonight as satellite imagery and model information suggest a wide area of clearing skies.  This would allow for another radiational cooling event with coldest locations potentially dipping into the upper 20s.  Most flatland locations would be in the low to mid 30s.  hillsides will remain above freezing.  It is possible enough cloud cover could prevail, keeping most locations above freezing, but for this forecast, I’ll go with the generally clear skies scenario.

 

This may be the last night of potentially below freezing conditions as I do anticipate more and more cloud cover to play a larger role.  The flow aloft is also becoming out of the southwest, which is warm and moist.  This could allow dew points to creep up.

 

Abundant cloud cover with even a chance of showers will create the conditions for well above freezing temperatures Wednesday through Sunday, and quite possibly well into next week.

 

This footnote, the bitterly cold air mass east of the Rockies will create freezing rain and snow all the way to the Gulf Coast.  For now, it appears central Florida may see temperatures in the upper 20s to the mid 30s, but it does not appear a damaging freeze is imminent there.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

30

Porterville

31

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

30

Strathmore

29

Mcfarland

29

Ducor

31

Tea Pot Dome

30

Lindsay

29

Exeter

29

Famoso

32

Madera

31

Belridge

30

Delano

31

North Bakersfield

32

Orosi

29

Orange Cove

30

Lindcove

20

Lindcove Hillside

AF

Sanger River Bottom

27

Root Creek

29

Venice Hill

30

Rosedale

32

Jasmine

31

Arvin

AF

Lamont

30

Plainview

30

Mettler

AF

Edison

AF

Maricopa

31

Holland Creek

AF

Tivy Valley

31

Kite Road South

33

Kite Road North

29

AF=Above Freezing                

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Mid 30s to the lower 40s.

Humidity, Visalia, 45%/100%  Bakersfield, 35%/70%

Actual Humidity December 29, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 97%/38%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 40%, Bakersfield: Today 70% tomorrow 50%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days December 29, 2017: Stratford .37, Parlier .32, Blackwell, .41 Lindcove .31, Arvin .36, Orange Cove .36, Porterville .31, Delano .NA., Madera Two .32.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 48, Parlier 49, Blackwell 50, Lindcove, 52, Arvin, 49, Orange Cove 47, Porterville 49, Delano NA, Madera Two 50

 

Mean Temperatures for December. Month So Far: 46.4 +1.8

Record Temperatures: 67/24. Average Temperatures: 53/35

Heating Degree Days this Season: 836, -251 Courtesy of the NWS

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since October 1, 2017  Fresno: .41 season. or -2.92.  Month to Date: .04

Since October 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  .07, or -1.81,  Month to Date: .04

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 473, Parlier, 500, Arvin, 447, Shafter, 564, Stratford, 508, Madera two, 660, Alpaugh, NA, Lindcove, 488, Porterville, 650.  Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 7:11 am  Sunset: 4:53 pm. Hours of Daylight:  9:41

 

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  62 /  32 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  62 /  34 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  63 /  30 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  61 /  29 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  69 /  38 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  61 /  31 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1552 /  66 /  34 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  65 /  31 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1554 /  65 /  43 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                                                       Season     %        Last y.   %           Ave.       Annual Ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.96    21    6.07   131     4.65    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    1.03    26    4.97   124     4.01    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    1.11    32    4.19   122     3.44    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.41    11    3.97   108     3.67    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.41    12    4.47   131     3.40    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.41    13    2.52    83     3.04    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.07     4    2.56   133     1.92     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.16    10    0.36    23     1.58     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.78    20    4.00   104     3.84    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.27     8    3.68   103     3.58    12.78

 

Next Report: Sunday, December 31/pm