Summary: Considerable high cloudiness streamed over the valley during the night from the west/southwest. This allowed the radiational cooling process to slow and above freezing temperatures were noted for a change. Strong upper level high pressure is nevertheless maintaining itself well as these clouds stream over the top of the high from the mid Pacific.
Models indicate there will be a fairly wide gap in the cloud cover tonight which may allow temperatures at least in some locations to fall to freezing or just below. A cap remains over the valley floor, continuing to keep the warm air inversion in place. As a result, the particulate matter in the lower 1000 feet of the atmosphere is trapped on the valley floor for very hazy conditions which will continue through Tuesday.
A mild Pacific storm will approach the coast Wednesday. It still appears the bulk of the energy from this system will move into northern California, but a chance of showers still exists for the valley, especially from Fresno County north. High snow levels can be expected due to the sub tropical nature of this system.
Beyond Wednesday, models are in a state of flux. The bottom line, though, is the strong ridge of high pressure will be gone so there will at least be a chance of rain Wednesday through Thursday of this week.
Models for the medium range are also inconsistent, but still show at least a chance of rain next week.
Forecast: a mix of high clouds and sunshine today. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy tonight and New Year’s Day. Variable cloudiness at times New Year’s night through Tuesday night. mostly cloudy Wednesday through Thursday night with a chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno northward. Variable cloudiness Friday through Sunday with a chance of showers.
Short Term:
| Madera 65/31/64/36/64 | Reedley 66/31/64/35/64 | Dinuba 65/30/64/36/64 | |
| Porterville 67/30/64/35/65 | Lindsay 66/30/64/34/65 | Delano 66/32/65/36/65 | |
| Bakersfield 70/38/67/41/67 | Arvin 70/35/65/37/67 | Taft 69/43/65/44/67 | |
| Lamont 68/31/64/37/66 | Pixley 66/30/65/36/65 | Tulare 65/39/64/39/64 | |
| Woodlake 66/30/64/35/65 | Hanford 66/31/64/35/65 | Orosi 66/30/64/35/64 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Chance of showers 45/66 |
Thursday
Chance of showers 50/68 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 51/65 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 50/65 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 48/62 |
Two Week Outlook: January 5 through January 11: This model is showing a more favorable pattern for wet weather returning to central California as the blocking high has vanished. Currently, it appears Pacific storms will be of a mild nature so temperatures are likely to remain above seasonal average.
January: Overall during January this season, temperatures should range somewhat above average. This model also shows equal chances of near average precipitation over the northern half of the state but below average precip over the southern half of California. We remain between these two It forecasts, so hopefully precipitation will be near seasonal levels.
January, February, March: This model is not hopeful for above average precipitation, or even average precipitation. Overall, upper level high pressure is projected to be the most dominant feature for the next three months, resulting in average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Wednesday.
Rain: Expect dry weather through at least Tuesday night. a low pressure system of subtropical nature will approach mainly the northern California coast Wednesday, spreading showers over northern California and possibly central California, mainly from Fresno County northward. Significant precipitation is not expected as the main dynamics will be to our north.
Models for Thursday through Sunday of this week are all over the place, but with the strong upper high removed, the potential for showers on any given day is there, depending on the timing and strength of any given system that approaches from the west of southwest. If we do get the benefits of precipitation, snow levels will be high with generally a southwesterly flow prevailing.
Frost: The high cloud cover overnight did the job, keeping conditions above freezing. The coldest I could find was Navelencia which was 33 degrees.
Somewhat of a tricky forecast for tonight as satellite imagery and model information suggest a wide area of clearing skies. This would allow for another radiational cooling event with coldest locations potentially dipping into the upper 20s. Most flatland locations would be in the low to mid 30s. hillsides will remain above freezing. It is possible enough cloud cover could prevail, keeping most locations above freezing, but for this forecast, I’ll go with the generally clear skies scenario.
This may be the last night of potentially below freezing conditions as I do anticipate more and more cloud cover to play a larger role. The flow aloft is also becoming out of the southwest, which is warm and moist. This could allow dew points to creep up.
Abundant cloud cover with even a chance of showers will create the conditions for well above freezing temperatures Wednesday through Sunday, and quite possibly well into next week.
This footnote, the bitterly cold air mass east of the Rockies will create freezing rain and snow all the way to the Gulf Coast. For now, it appears central Florida may see temperatures in the upper 20s to the mid 30s, but it does not appear a damaging freeze is imminent there.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
29 |
Mcfarland
29 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
31 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
20 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
31 |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
30 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
31 |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Mid 30s to the lower 40s.
Humidity, Visalia, 45%/100% Bakersfield, 35%/70%
Actual Humidity December 29, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 97%/38%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 40%, Bakersfield: Today 70% tomorrow 50%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days December 29, 2017: Stratford .37, Parlier .32, Blackwell, .41 Lindcove .31, Arvin .36, Orange Cove .36, Porterville .31, Delano .NA., Madera Two .32. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 48, Parlier 49, Blackwell 50, Lindcove, 52, Arvin, 49, Orange Cove 47, Porterville 49, Delano NA, Madera Two 50
Mean Temperatures for December. Month So Far: 46.4 +1.8
Record Temperatures: 67/24. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 836, -251 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: .41 season. or -2.92. Month to Date: .04
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: .07, or -1.81, Month to Date: .04
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 473, Parlier, 500, Arvin, 447, Shafter, 564, Stratford, 508, Madera two, 660, Alpaugh, NA, Lindcove, 488, Porterville, 650. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:11 am Sunset: 4:53 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:41
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 62 / 32 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 62 / 34 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 63 / 30 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 61 / 29 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 69 / 38 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 61 / 31 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1552 / 66 / 34 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 65 / 31 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1554 / 65 / 43 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.96 21 6.07 131 4.65 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.03 26 4.97 124 4.01 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.11 32 4.19 122 3.44 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.41 11 3.97 108 3.67 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.41 12 4.47 131 3.40 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.41 13 2.52 83 3.04 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.07 4 2.56 133 1.92 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 10 0.36 23 1.58 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.78 20 4.00 104 3.84 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.27 8 3.68 103 3.58 12.78
Next Report: Sunday, December 31/pm