January 1, 2018
Summary: Skies were relatively clear last night with occasional periods of high clouds. Temperatures plummeted into the upper 20s to the lower 30s in many locations with the exception of parts of Kern County which are in the mid to upper 30s. Upper level high pressure will keep its grip over California through Tuesday. There is a large cloud mass off the central and southern California coast which will move overhead from the southwest late today through Tuesday. This will lead to milder overnight lows.
The persistent high will finally break down Tuesday night and Wednesday with even the possibility of light showers, especially from Fresno County northward, late Wednesday and Thursday. Models continue to indicate the more dynamic part of the storm will move inland through northern California with just light amounts of precipitation for central California. This is a subtropical low, so snow levels will be very high.
For now, it appears Friday and Friday night will be dry, but another subtropical low will move on shore late Friday night and Saturday, this time possibly over central California. On paper, this would have a better chance for a more significant rain event. Dry weather will return again Sunday and Monday.
Medium range outlooks continue to indicate the storm door will be left wide open next week. There will be a possibility of precipitation perhaps about midweek next week, but that far out a lot of amendments will need to be made to the forecast.
Forecast: Mostly clear with some high clouds today. Variable mainly mid and high level clouds tonight through Tuesday night. increasing cloudiness Wednesday with a chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north. The chance of showers will continue Wednesday night and Thursday. Partly cloudy Friday and Friday night. mostly cloudy Saturday through Sunday with a chance of showers. Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 65/34/64/38/65 | Reedley 64/34/65/37/65 | Dinuba 64/32/64/36/64 | |
| Porterville 66/32/64/36/66 | Lindsay 65/32/64/36/65 | Delano 66/34/66/38/69 | |
| Bakersfield 67/40/66/42/68 | Arvin 67/35/66/39/69 | Taft 66/44/66/46/68 | |
| Lamont 67/33/66/38/68 | Pixley 65/33/64/37/65 | Tulare 64/32/64/36/64 | |
| Woodlake 65/33/64/37/65 | Hanford 66/34/64/37/66 | Orosi 65/32/65/37/66 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Chance of showers 51/68 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 47/65 |
Saturday
Chance of rain 47/63 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 38/61 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 37/61 |
Two Week Outlook: January 8 through January 14: This model is showing a more favorable pattern for wet weather returning to central California as the blocking high has vanished. Currently, it appears Pacific storms will be of a mild nature so temperatures are likely to remain above seasonal average.
January: Overall during January this season, temperatures should range somewhat above average. This model also shows equal chances of near average precipitation over the northern half of the state but below average precip over the southern half of California. We remain between these two It forecasts, so hopefully precipitation will be near seasonal levels.
January, February, March: This model is not hopeful for above average precipitation, or even average precipitation. Overall, upper level high pressure is projected to be the most dominant feature for the next three months, resulting in average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Tuesday and quite possibly through the day Wednesday. A subtropical low will move from southwest to northwest into northern California Wednesday night and Thursday. The chance of light showers is relatively high from Fresno County north but drops off sharply south of that line. For now, it appears Thursday night and Friday will be dry however, another subtropical low may approach the southern California coast Saturday. It remains to be seen whether the trajectory of this system will result in any precipitation, but adding a chance of showers to the forecast for Saturday into Sunday is warranted.
Models for next week are all over the place, but they each show a trough of low pressure along the west coast which is favorable for Pacific storms to move into California. The timing and the strength of these systems is unknown at this time, but at least a more favorable weather pattern will arrive Wednesday and remain there for several days.
Frost: Last night was mostly clear with occasional periods of high clouds. Temperatures again fell sharply during the night after a day of mid to upper 60s yesterday. As of 6:00am, many locations were in the low 30s with a spattering of upper 20s.
Tonight, we will be dealing with a whole different set of circumstances. Satellite imagery this morning shows a large mass of subtropical cloudiness off the southern and central California coast. This will begin to stream overhead tonight and at times through Tuesday. Most locations should be above freezing tonight. I’m going to forecast the typical cold spots in the lower 30s in case the cloud cover turns out to be too thin or that there are periods of mostly clear weather. Doubtful, but possible.
Plenty of cloud cover should prevail Wednesday through Thursday with even a chance of showers. This will be a subtropical air mass which should drag dew points up significantly as a moist air mass finally settles into the valley. That, in combination with cloud cover, will keep temperatures above freezing for the remainder of the week.
It will turn somewhat cooler Sunday through Tuesday of next week, but for now it appears above freezing conditions will continue.
While the eastern 2/3 of the country shivers in the bitter cold, temperatures over central California will be very mild for this time of year.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
AF |
Woodlake
AF |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
AF |
Tea Pot Dome
AF |
| Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
AF |
Madera
AF |
| Belridge
AF |
Delano
AF |
North Bakersfield
AF |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
AF |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
32 |
Venice Hill
AF |
Rosedale
AF |
Jasmine
AF |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
32 |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
AF |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
AF |
| Kite Road South
AF |
Kite Road North
AF |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Mid 30s to the lower 40s.
Humidity, Visalia, 45%/100% Bakersfield, 35%/80%
Actual Humidity December 30, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 95%/40%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 40%, Bakersfield: Today 70% tomorrow 40%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days December 30, 2017: Stratford .37, Parlier .31, Blackwell, .43 Lindcove .32, Arvin .41, Orange Cove .36, Porterville .32, Delano .NA., Madera Two .32. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 48, Parlier 49, Blackwell 51, Lindcove, 53, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 47, Porterville 49, Delano NA, Madera Two 50
Mean Temperatures for December. Month So Far: 46.4 +1.8
Record Temperatures: 69/23. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 854, -254 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: .41 season. or -2.99. Month to Date: .04
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: .07, or -1.85, Month to Date: .04
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 487, Parlier, 515, Arvin, 459, Shafter, 578, Stratford, 522, Madera two, 676, Alpaugh, NA, Lindcove, 502, Porterville, 664. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:12 am Sunset: 4:54 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:41
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 67 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 66 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 68 / 36 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 66 / 35 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 69 / 41 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 68 / 36 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 69 / 40 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 71 / 37 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1555 / 68 / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.96 20 6.16 130 4.73 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.03 25 5.03 123 4.08 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.11 32 4.23 121 3.51 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.41 11 4.07 109 3.73 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.41 12 4.56 131 3.47 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.41 13 2.87 92 3.13 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.07 4 3.03 155 1.96 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 10 0.36 22 1.62 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.78 20 4.00 102 3.91 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.27 7 3.68 101 3.66 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.12 3 4.80 119 4.05 13.95
Next Report: Monday, January 1/PM