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Forecast

January 3, 2018/pm report

January 3, 2018

Summary: Doppler  radar this afternoon is showing a great amount of shower activity along the coast, generally from Santa Barbara County northward with even a few showers in southern California.  This precipitation is spreading into Kings county and western Fresno County and will overtake eastern Fresno and Tulare Counties shortly.  The portion of this low will weakly move through the southern San Joaquin Valley this evening.  We should see another wave move onshore Friday morning as the main low pressure system moves into northern California.

 

Dry weather will return Thursday afternoon and night, but another subtropical low will move inland to our north Friday night and Saturday for a chance of more light showers.  Models vary considerably on the pattern for next week as they are backing off on the previously mentioned Monday/Tuesday event.  But some of these models show a possibly intense storm off the northern California coast about Wednesday night or Thursday.

 

Beyond Thursday, the storm door will open for further systems to move in.  however, the two week model is showing a blocking ridge of high pressure beginning to build along the west coast which would again shut the door.  With a moist southwesterly flow aloft, temperatures will be exceedingly warm for this time of year.

 

Forecast: The chance of showers will continue this evening then a dry period will take place later tonight.  There will be a chance of showers again Thursday morning, becoming partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday morning.  Increasing clouds again later Friday with a chance of showers later Friday through Saturday morning.  Partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday night.  only a slight chance of showers exists for Monday and Tuesday.  Expect an increasing chance of rain late Wednesday and Thursday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 43/69/40/67 Reedley 41/68/43/66 Dinuba 41/67/46/66
Porterville 43/70/44/68 Lindsay 44/70/43/67 Delano 44/70/44/67
Bakersfield 45/71/45/68 Arvin 43/71/44/68 Taft 47/71/46/68
Lamont 43/70/43/67 Pixley 42/70/44/66 Tulare 42/69/44/66
Woodlake 42/69/44/67 Hanford 42/70/44/68 Orosi 42/69/43/67

 

Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Saturday with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain: Light showers are spreading into the western portion of the valley as of the time of this writing with some light showers even occurring in Kern County.  The back side of this band of precipitation is just now moving on shore and will move into the valley this evening.  Another band of precipitation will be possible Thursday morning as the main area of the subtropical low pressure system moves into northern California.  Thursday afternoon through Friday morning will be dry.

 

Rainfall amounts from Fresno County northward should tally about a tenth of an inch with amounts tapering off further south, so obviously this is not a major event.

 

Friday night and Saturday, another subtropical low will move inland to our north, mainly into northern California and Oregon.  We will just get the scraps from this system as the southern boundary of the trough moves through.

 

Next week’s forecast is very low confidence as models are all over the place.  Generally, there’s an expectation of dry weather from Monday through early Wednesday then a major Pacific storm will move into northern California late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

 

The two week model just out is showing a ridge trying to build over and along the west coast.  That, of course, would renew a dry pattern.

 

Frost Information: Expect above freezing conditions for the next week to ten days.

 

Lows Tonight:

All locations will be above freezing tonight.

 

Next Report: Thursday morning, January 4