January 4, 2018
Summary: The last band of light showers is currently moving through the valley. This band is only 40 miles wide and it is flanked north/northeast to south/southwest through Santa Barbara County, western Tulare County and the Sierras of Fresno County. This band is taking its own sweet time to completely move into the Sierra Nevada, so we’ll call for a chance of showers for a time this morning with clearing skies this afternoon.
The next Pacific low pressure system is still well out over the middle of the ocean. It will quickly move towards the southern Oregon/northern California coast Friday and Saturday. The southern and weaker part of this system will move through during this time frame with only a small chance of showers, mainly from Fresno County northward but there will be a small chance further south.
A weak ridge of high pressure will build in Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Models continue to diverge on the timing and strength of weather systems that will move into California. The chance of showers will begin to increase again late Monday with a much greater risk of rain Wednesday and Thursday. If this low takes on all the characteristics that I see on paper, not only could we see a significant rain event, but also some strong, gusty winds just about everywhere.
Beyond Wednesday, models show a dry period through at least the next weekend and possibly into the following week.
Forecast: A chance of showers for a time this morning. Becoming partly cloudy this afternoon. Partly cloudy tonight through Friday. mostly cloudy Friday night and Saturday with a chance of showers. Partly cloudy Saturday night through Sunday night. increasing cloudiness Monday leading to a slight chance of showers. The risk of showers will increase Monday night and Tuesday. Rain likely late Wednesday through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 70/39/68/38/64 | Reedley 71/40/68/41/64 | Dinuba 70/38/68/39/65 | |
| Porterville 72/40/68/38/64 | Lindsay 72/38/68/37/65 | Delano 73/41/71/41/66 | |
| Bakersfield 73/50/71/48/67 | Arvin 73/41/71/39/67 | Taft 74/50/72/48/67 | |
| Lamont 72/40/71/39/68 | Pixley 72/39/68/39/64 | Tulare 70/39/68/38/63 | |
| Woodlake 72/39/68/38/64 | Hanford 72/39/68/38/65 | Orosi 72/39/68/37/64 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Partly cloudy 46/66 |
Monday
Slight chance of showers 52/69 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 52/67 |
Wednesday
Rain likely 50/62 |
Thursday
Rain likely 40/61 |
Two Week Outlook: January 11 through January 15: This model is showing a more favorable pattern for wet weather returning to central California as the blocking high has vanished. Currently, it appears Pacific storms will be of a mild nature so temperatures are likely to remain above seasonal average.
January: Overall during January this season, temperatures should range somewhat above average. This model also shows equal chances of near average precipitation over the northern half of the state but below average precip over the southern half of California. We remain between these two It forecasts, so hopefully precipitation will be near seasonal levels.
January, February, March: This model is not hopeful for above average precipitation, or even average precipitation. Overall, upper level high pressure is projected to be the most dominant feature for the next three months, resulting in average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday.
Rain: Currently, there is roughly a 40 miles across band of showers moving across the south valley. There are light showers in Tulare County and western Kern County, but just light amounts of precipitation are occurring. A couple of rainfall examples is: Fresno .04, Blackwell .15, Hanford .21, Visalia .10, with no measurable rain in southern Tulare county or Kern County.
The light showers will continue for a time this morning in the south valley then will end later this morning with dry weather from this afternoon through Friday. another weak, subtropical low will move into the coast of southern Oregon and northern California Friday night and Saturday. The weaker sector of the low will drag through central Cali with only a small chance of showers as once again the main dynamics will be to the north.
Models are all over the place for next week. By and large, there will be a chance of showers Monday and Tuesday. Some models are suggesting a strong low will move into northern California Wednesday and Thursday. This system could potentially drop significant amounts of rain over the valley floor with heavy amounts in the mountains. It appears strong, gusty, south to southeast winds will crank up which could create strong rain shadows along the west side and in Kern County, but for now this isn’t a given.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing here, but that is not the case in Florida. They are expecting mid to upper 20s tonight with coldest down to 24 to 25. In the northern portion of Florida, low to mid 20s will be widespread with the possibility of snow flurries. It appears they will begin to moderate as early as tomorrow with that process continuing over the weekend.
Lows Tonight: All locations will be above freezing.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid 40s to the low 50s. Mid to upper 40s
Humidity, Visalia, 55%/100% Bakersfield, 50%/85%
Actual Humidity January 2, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 93%/48%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 40% tomorrow 60%, Bakersfield: Today 50% tomorrow 60%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days January 2, 2018: Stratford .39, Parlier .31, Blackwell, .44 Lindcove .34, Arvin .43, Orange Cove .38, Porterville .32, Delano .NA., Madera Two .32. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 49, Parlier 50, Blackwell 52, Lindcove, 53, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 48, Porterville 50, Delano NA, Madera Two 50
Mean Temperatures for January. Month So Far: 49.3 +5.2
Record Temperatures: 72/23. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 898, -276 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: .41 season. or -3.21. Month to Date: .00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: .07, or -1.97, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 517, Parlier, 552, Arvin, 488, Shafter, 616, Stratford, 559, Madera two, 720, Alpaugh, NA, Lindcove, 538, Porterville, 703. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:12 am Sunset: 4:56 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:43
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 63 / 38 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 66 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 65 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 63 / 36 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 72 / 42 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 65 / 40 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1559 / 66 / 40 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 69 / 35 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1554 / 71 / 45 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 56 / 40 / 0.06 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.96 20 6.24 127 4.90 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.03 24 5.08 120 4.23 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.11 30 4.23 113 3.74 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.41 10 4.07 102 3.98 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.41 11 4.56 126 3.62 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.41 12 2.87 86 3.33 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.07 3 3.03 149 2.04 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 9 0.36 21 1.71 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.78 19 4.03 99 4.07 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.27 7 3.68 96 3.83 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.12 3 4.80 114 4.22 13.95
Next Report: Thursday, January 4/pm