January 3, 2018
Summary: Upper level high pressure is finally giving way to a new weather pattern. The first in a possible series of Pacific storms will affect central California late this afternoon through Thursday morning. Models are not impressive on this subtropical system as the main low will move northeastward into northern California tonight and the Pacific Northwest Saturday. The bottom side of this system will drag through with a chance of light showers from mainly Fresno County northward. It appears much of the south valley could remain dry or just tally up a few hundredths.
Dry weather will return Thursday afternoon through Friday then another low pressure system of subtropical origins will move inland to our north again Friday and Friday night. this system also does not pose a significant precipitation event. The main dynamics of this storm will move into northern California and Oregon.
We have a better chance of a more significant precipitation event early next week and possibly another system will arrive about Wednesday night or Thursday. Confidence is low on this as model solutions vary widely on timing and strength.
The extended forecast calls for above average precipitation along with above average temperatures.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy today. A small chance of showers late this afternoon through Thursday morning, mainly from Fresno County northward. Partly cloudy Thursday afternoon into Friday. a chance of showers will again exist Friday afternoon through Friday night then partly cloudy skies will prevail later Saturday through Sunday. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night with a chance of showers Monday through Tuesday. A small chance of showers Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 66/40/68/43/66 | Reedley 66/40/68/43/68 | Dinuba 66/41/69/44/67 | |
| Porterville 67/42/70/44/66 | Lindsay 67/39/70/43/67 | Delano 68/42/70/45/67 | |
| Bakersfield 70/44/70/46/68 | Arvin 70/43/70/46/68 | Taft 69/47/70/48/68 | |
| Lamont 69/42/70/45/68 | Pixley 68/42/70/45/67 | Tulare 66/41/70/44/67 | |
| Woodlake 67/41/69/44/66 | Hanford 67/42/70/44/67 | Orosi 67/40/68/44/66 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Chance of showers 52/63 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 46/63 |
Monday
Chance of showers 46/65 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 46/68 |
Wednesday
Slight chance of showers 47/65 |
Two Week Outlook: January 10 through January 16: This model is showing a more favorable pattern for wet weather returning to central California as the blocking high has vanished. Currently, it appears Pacific storms will be of a mild nature so temperatures are likely to remain above seasonal average.
January: Overall during January this season, temperatures should range somewhat above average. This model also shows equal chances of near average precipitation over the northern half of the state but below average precip over the southern half of California. We remain between these two It forecasts, so hopefully precipitation will be near seasonal levels.
January, February, March: This model is not hopeful for above average precipitation, or even average precipitation. Overall, upper level high pressure is projected to be the most dominant feature for the next three months, resulting in average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.
Rain: There will be a limited chance of light showers late this afternoon through Thursday morning. Most locations, if they do receive precipitation, will no doubt record .10 or less. Parts of the south valley may very well remain dry with this system.
The next chance of rain will be later Friday and Friday night. unfortunately, this system also will move inland well to our north with the southern portion of the system giving a rather small chance of showers. We’ll go with dry weather for later Saturday through Sunday.
The next chance of rain will arrive Monday through Tuesday. It again appears fairly weak, so only light amounts are expected where it does happen to rain.
Models diverge significantly for Wednesday on. It’s possible we could see a more significant precipitation event about Wednesday night or Thursday. Beyond that, the storm door will remain open so there will be additional chances of rain later down the road.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing and will remain above freezing for at least the next seven days and quite possibly longer.
Lows Tonight: All locations will be above freezing.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Mid to upper 30s
Humidity, Visalia, 40%/100% Bakersfield, 30%/75%
Actual Humidity January 1, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 89%/46%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 10% tomorrow 20%, Bakersfield: Today 10% tomorrow 30%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days January 1, 2018: Stratford .41, Parlier .33, Blackwell, .46 Lindcove .36, Arvin .45, Orange Cove .41, Porterville .34, Delano .NA., Madera Two .36. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 49, Parlier 50, Blackwell 52, Lindcove, 53, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 48, Porterville 50, Delano NA, Madera Two 50
Mean Temperatures for January. Month So Far: 48.5 +4.5
Record Temperatures: 70/20. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 883, -270 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: .41 season. or -3.14. Month to Date: .00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: .07, or -1.93, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 506, Parlier, 540, Arvin, 479, Shafter, 603, Stratford, 545, Madera two, 706, Alpaugh, NA, Lindcove, 528, Porterville, 691. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:12 am Sunset: 4:55 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:42
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 59 / 41 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 59 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 62 / 38 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 61 / 37 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 63 / 44 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 61 / 39 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1552 / 66 / 42 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 65 / 39 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1555 / 61 / 41 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 59 / 45 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.96 20 6.24 127 4.90 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.03 24 5.08 120 4.23 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.11 30 4.23 113 3.74 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.41 10 4.07 102 3.98 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.41 11 4.56 126 3.62 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.41 12 2.87 86 3.33 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.07 3 3.03 149 2.04 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 9 0.36 21 1.71 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.78 19 4.03 99 4.07 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.27 7 3.68 96 3.83 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.12 3 4.80 114 4.22 13.95
Next Report: Wednesday, January 3/pm