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Forecast

January 5, 2018/pm report

January 5, 2018

Summary: Skies are mostly clear over the valley this afternoon.  This is driving temperatures well into the mid to upper 60s.  a few locations may hit the 70 degree mark by the time all is said and done.  A southerly flow aloft combined with a subtropical low currently located roughly 400 miles to the west/southwest of Los Angeles.  The low will track northeastward with the strongest dynamics over northern California.  Models this afternoon are more bullish on our chance for showers late tonight through Saturday.  Some indicate that even Kern County will have a reasonable chance of showers, mainly during the day Saturday.

 

A short lived upper level high will move in from the west Saturday night through Sunday.  The pattern will then become quite interesting as a compilation of three different systems initially drive a moist west/southwest flow aloft by late Sunday night.  a significant trough of low pressure will dig southeastward Monday out of the Gulf of Alaska, resulting in a strong cold front moving down the valley Tuesday with possibly significant precipitation on the valley floor.  Heavy amounts of rain and snow would be likely along the Sierra Nevada.  Snow levels will actually lower to about 5,000 feet by Tuesday afternoon, hopefully resulting in at least two feet of snow over the higher elevations.

 

Gusty south to southeast winds will increase Sunday night through Monday night then will be out of the northwest after the cold front moves through.

 

The chance of rain will begin to taper off Wednesday morning as the trough moves eastward into the Great Basin.  Models lately have been quite consistent in showing a ridge of high pressure building along the west coast beginning Thursday.  This will last through at least the following weekend and quite possibly into the following week.

 

Forecast: Increasing cloudiness tonight leading to a chance of showers during the early morning hours with light showers becoming likely Saturday.  Partly cloudy Saturday night through Sunday.  Increasing cloudiness Sunday night with rain becoming likely Monday, especially during the afternoon.  Periods of rain Monday night through Tuesday night, possibly locally heavy at times.  A chance of showers Wednesday morning.  Becoming partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.  becoming mostly clear Thursday with the possible exception of Kern County and possibly eastern Tulare County.  Mostly clear Thursday night through Friday with areas of night and morning fog.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 52/63/53/63 Reedley 52/63/52/63 Dinuba 50/62/52/62
Porterville  50/63/51/63 Lindsay 51/63/52/63 Delano 53/64/52/63
Bakersfield 53/65/52/64 Arvin 52/65/52/64 Taft 54/65/53/63
Lamont 51/65/52/64 Pixley 51/63/52/63 Tulare 50/62/51/63
Woodlake 49/63/51/62 Hanford 51/63/52/62 Orosi 50/62/51/63s

 

Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH tonight with periods of near calm conditions.  Winds Saturday will be out of the south to southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts.  Winds will decrease to around 5 to 10 MPH Sunday then begin to pick up out of the southeast at 15 to 20 MPH Monday with stronger gusts possible along the west side.

 

Rain: Models this afternoon are a bit brighter for the possibility of showers late tonight and Saturday.  The subtropical low is tracking northeastward with most of the energy moving into northern California.  However, models do show the southern portion of the low pumping up, giving a better chance of mainly light showers for later tonight and Saturday.  Most locations will record generally less than .20 with perhaps a few hundredths in Kern County.

 

There will be a brief gap in the active weather Saturday night into Sunday evening.  Three different low pressure systems will then affect central California Monday through Tuesday night.  the first has plenty of warm, subtropical air moving in from the southwest while a trough of low pressure digs southward from the Gulf of Alaska, moving through the region Tuesday and Tuesday night.  In fact, a strong cold front will move down the valley sometime Tuesday afternoon, issuing in a colder air mass which should actually cause the snow level to dip to about 5,000 feet or so.

 

Rainfall amounts from Monday through early Wednesday could tally up to an inch or so, mainly along the east side north of Kern County.  Initially, there will be rain shadows along the west side and in Kern County.  That will change however once the cold front moves through.  There will be a chance of showers for a time Wednesday morning, but all the action should be over by Wednesday afternoon with dry weather Thursday through next weekend, and quite possibly well into the following week.

 

Frost Information: Expect above freezing conditions for the next week to ten days.

 

Lows Tonight:

All locations will be above freezing tonight.

 

Next Report: Saturday morning, January 6