January 5, 2018
Summary: A new low pressure system several hundred miles off the southern California coast is working its way northeastward and will move into northern California late tonight and Saturday. Central California will again be on the southern flank of this low, so just a chance of light showers is expected, mainly north of Kern County. A weak ridge of high pressure will build in from the west Saturday night and Sunday for dry weather. the real action will begin Monday and will potentially last through Wednesday morning. A compilation of low pressure will begin to approach the coast Sunday night. subtropical moisture will be feeding into this system from the southwest while a cold front moves out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California at the same time. This scenario is rather complex, but it appears significant precipitation and gusty winds will begin Monday and will last through Wednesday morning.
The precipitation should end by Wednesday afternoon with upper level high pressure beginning to build along the west coast Thursday through next weekend. If models hold, it will build well into the first half of the following week.
Forecast: Partly cloudy today. Increasing cloudiness tonight with a chance of light showers late tonight through Saturday. Becoming partly cloudy Saturday night and Sunday. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night with rain becoming likely Monday and on and off through Wednesday morning, possibly heavy at times. Mostly clear Wednesday afternoon through Friday with areas of night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 67/49/64/46/62 | Reedley 66/49/63/48/62 | Dinuba 66/48/63/46/62 | |
| Porterville 68/49/64/47/63 | Lindsay 67/46/63/48/63 | Delano 68/47/64/50/65 | |
| Bakersfield 70/48/65/49/64 | Arvin 69/46/65/48/65 | Taft 69/50/65/51/64 | |
| Lamont 69/44/64/48/65 | Pixley 67/49/63/48/62 | Tulare 66/47/64/48/63 | |
| Woodlake 68/44/63/48/63 | Hanford 68/43/63/49/62 | Orosi 66/45/63/47/62 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Rain likely 52/63 |
Tuesday
Rain likely 53/63 |
Wednesday
AM showers possible 41/56 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 37/61 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 38/63 |
Two Week Outlook: January 12 through January 16: This model is showing a more favorable pattern for wet weather returning to central California as the blocking high has vanished. Currently, it appears Pacific storms will be of a mild nature so temperatures are likely to remain above seasonal average.
January: Overall during January this season, temperatures should range somewhat above average. This model also shows equal chances of near average precipitation over the northern half of the state but below average precip over the southern half of California. We remain between these two It forecasts, so hopefully precipitation will be near seasonal levels.
January, February, March: This model is not hopeful for above average precipitation, or even average precipitation. Overall, upper level high pressure is projected to be the most dominant feature for the next three months, resulting in average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Monday.
Rain: There is a chance of light showers late tonight and Saturday as a subtropical system moves northeastward into northern California. Conditions will be dry Saturday night through Sunday night then rain will become likely later Monday as a complex weather system moves through California. Precipitation could potentially be significant along the east side north of Kern County. Rain shadows will develop but will end later Tuesday as a strong cold front moves down the valley. With this in mind, a significant storm will pound central California from Monday through possibly Wednesday morning. As much as an inch of precipitation is possible during this period from Tulare county northward.
High pressure will begin to build Wednesday and will dominate the pattern through next weekend and possibly through the following week for a return to dry weather.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing for the next seven to ten days and possibly longer.
Lows Tonight: All locations will be above freezing.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid 40s to the low 50s. Mid to upper 40s
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the mid 50s. Mid to upper 40s
Humidity, Visalia, 55%/100% Bakersfield, 50%/85%
Actual Humidity January 3, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 95%/38%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 50% tomorrow 20%, Bakersfield: Today 60% tomorrow 30%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days January 3, 2018: Stratford .35, Parlier .31, Blackwell, .41 Lindcove .33, Arvin .42, Orange Cove .36, Porterville .31, Delano .NA., Madera Two .29. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 49, Parlier 50, Blackwell 52, Lindcove, 53, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 47, Porterville 50, Delano NA, Madera Two 50
Mean Temperatures for January. Month So Far: 49.3 +5.2
Record Temperatures: 72/23. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 898, -276 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: .41 season. or -3.21. Month to Date: .00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: .07, or -1.97, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 525, Parlier, 560, Arvin, 496, Shafter, 627, Stratford, 568, Madera two, 729, Alpaugh, NA, Lindcove, 546, Porterville, 712. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:12 am Sunset: 4:56 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:43
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 69 / 45 / 0.24 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 69 / 49 / 0.14 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 67 / 50 / 0.07 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 63 / 48 / 0.39 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 66 / 47 / 0.12 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 69 / 48 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 62 / 46 / 0.14 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1553 / 69 / 49 / 0.02 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 69 / 46 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1554 / 68 / 54 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 70 / 42 / M /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.09 1.16 23 7.30 144 5.06 14.06
MODESTO 0.28 1.33 30 5.61 128 4.39 13.11
MERCED 0.23 1.35 34 4.92 125 3.95 12.50
MADERA 0.14 0.55 13 4.61 110 4.19 12.02
FRESNO 0.07 0.48 13 5.20 138 3.76 11.50
HANFORD 0.39 0.80 23 3.16 90 3.53 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.07 3 3.12 148 2.11 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 9 1.31 73 1.79 5.18
SALINAS T 1.07 25 5.70 135 4.22 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.09 0.37 9 4.33 108 4.00 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.30 0.43 10 5.28 121 4.38 13.95
Next Report: Friday, January 5/pm