January 6, 2018
Summary: There are still widely scattered light showers over mainly southern Fresno County and Tulare County at this hour. They will come to an end this evening as a weak ridge of upper level high pressure fills in behind the exiting storm. Dry weather will continue tonight through Sunday night then the best opportunity of the rainfall season will present itself Monday through Tuesday night. there are two main centers of low pressure we’ll be doing business with. The first has a ton of subtropical moisture feeding in from the southwest over the Pacific Ocean. That system will begin to spread rain over the entire area Monday, especially during the afternoon. Models are also showing significant differences in pressure between the off shore low and higher pressure over the Great Basin. This will generate strong, gusty winds in many areas, mainly Monday afternoon through early Tuesday. It’s possible we may see a moderate high wind event in the extreme south valley where winds could exceed 50 MPH. gusts to 35 to 40 MPH are possible along the west side.
Storm number two will knock on the door Tuesday, bringing with it much colder air. Its origins are in the Gulf of Alaska so snow levels which initially will start out at 9,000 feet will drop to near 5000 feet by Tuesday evening. This system has plenty of dynamics to it. That, combined with a strong jet stream aloft, could set off a few thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, even some small hail cannot be ruled out.
The precipitation will turn to showers Tuesday night and all the action should be over by sunrise Wednesday with the exception of the mountain areas which will see some left over showers.
Upper level high pressure will begin to build in from the west Wednesday night and will completely take over Friday. long range models continue to indicate this high will be persistent with dry weather for all of next week and possibly well into the following week.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy tonight. Partly cloudy Sunday. Increasing clouds Sunday night. rain will overspread the valley Monday, especially during the afternoon. Rain Monday night and early Tuesday, turning to widespread showers and the possibility of a few thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through the early evening hours. Showers Tuesday night, ending by sunrise. Mostly to partly cloudy Wednesday. Becoming mostly clear Thursday with the exception of Kern County and possibly southeastern Tulare county where clouds may linger through Thursday morning. Mostly clear Thursday afternoon through Saturday with increasing amounts of night and morning valley fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 48/62/51/62 | Reedley 51/63/50/63 | Dinuba 50/61/49/62 | |
| Porterville 50/64/51/63 | Lindsay 50/64/50/63 | Delano 52/64/51/63 | |
| Bakersfield 53/65/52/65 | Arvin 51/65/53/64 | Taft 54/65/53/65 | |
| Lamont 52/65/51/65 | Pixley 51/64/52/62 | Tulare 50/63/52/62 | |
| Woodlake 51/63/52/63 | Hanford 53/62/51/62 | Orosi 51/63/53/62 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH tonight through Sunday. Winds will then be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH Sunday night, increasing out of the south or southeast at 15 to 25 MPH with stronger gusts. Gusts exceeding 50 MPH are possible in the extreme south valley. Winds will decrease and become out of the northwest Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night at generally 10 to 20 MPH. winds Wednesday and Thursday will be generally light.
Rain: Dry weather will return tonight and last through Sunday night. the action will really begin to crank up beginning Monday. The first of two strong low pressure systems will arrive Monday, especially during the afternoon, and continue into early Tuesday, locally heavy at times. The rain will turn showery Tuesday afternoon with thunderstorms and small hail being possible. Showers will taper off by midnight Tuesday night with dry weather returning Wednesday and continuing thereafter for at least the next seven to ten days.
Rainfall amounts for Monday through Tuesday night north of Kern County may top an inch in some locations, especially in Madera and Fresno Counties. Lesser amounts can be expected on the west side with perhaps one-half inch totals not out of the question. Kern County will likely receive between a quarter and a half an inch.
Frost Information: Above freezing conditions will continue through Wednesday night. as the atmosphere calms down Thursday and Friday, low to mid 30s are possible, but not guaranteed. By the weekend, most locations will be in the mid 30s to the lower 40s with above freezing conditions continuing for what appears to be all of next week.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Next Report: Sunday morning, January 7