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Forecast

January 7, 2018/report

January 7, 2018

Summary: The cloud cover overnight was thin enough to actually form some ground fog in some areas.  Fresno and Porterville were each reporting a visibility of ¼ of a mile.  Clouds will begin to increase tonight ahead of a very complex weather scenario.  There are two very strong low pressure systems which will join up just off shore, creating strong dynamics and significant wind in many areas.

 

The first phase will be subtropical in nature as a low still several hundred miles off the southern California  coast tracks northeastward.  In the meantime, a cold trough of low pressure is digging southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska.  The combination of this one-two punch will result in possibly heavy rain, however I temper that a big as strong southerly to southeasterly winds hit Kern County and the west side of the valley.  More on that in the wind discussion below.

 

A cold front will move through the vvalley late Monday night or early Tuesday.  The precipitation will become more showery later Tuesday in the cold and unstable air mass following the front.  Locally heavy showers and the possibility of thunderstorms exist for Tuesday afternoon and evening.  Showers will continue for a time Tuesday night but should be over early Wednesday morning.

 

A ridge of upper level high pressure will then build in from the west, sending us back to a prolonged period of dry weather.  this time, it does appear we will see quite a bit of fog beginning Thursday morning, but especially from Friday morning on.

 

Forecast: Variable mid and high level clouds today mixed with filtered sunlight.  Increasing cloudiness tonight with a chance of showers Monday morning.  Rain likely later Monday afternoon through early Tuesday, locally heavy at times.  The rain will turn to showers later Tuesday morning through Tuesday night.  localized thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by small hail and locally strong gusty winds.  Showers will taper off late Tuesday night with partly cloudy skies Wednesday with the exception of Kern County and possibly parts of Tulare county which will remain cloudy.  Mostly cloudy in Kern County Thursday night and Friday morning, becoming mostly clear Friday afternoon through Sunday with areas of morning fog.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 64/52/61/52/61 Reedley 63/53/62/51/60 Dinuba 63/51/62/52/59
Porterville 65/54/61/52/62 Lindsay 64/53/61/53/60 Delano 65/54/65/54/62
Bakersfield 66/55/71/53/62 Arvin 67/54/72/54/63 Taft 67/56/69/54/62
Lamont 66/55/70/53/63 Pixley 65/53/65/53/61 Tulare 62/52/61/52/606
Woodlake 64/53/61/52/60 Hanford 63/53/62/52/59 Orosi 63/52/63/52/60

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Wednesday

Partly cloudy

43/59

Thursday

Mostly clear

40/60

Friday

AM fog/PM sun

38/61

Saturday

AM fog/PM sun

37/64

Sunday

AM fog/PM sun

39/65

 

Two Week Outlook:  January 13 through January 19:  This model indicates well above average temperatures will continue.  It also indicates that there is a better than even chance of rain for northern and possibly central California.

 

January:  Overall during January this season, temperatures should range somewhat above average.  This model also shows equal chances of near average precipitation over the northern half of the state but below average precip over the southern half of California.  We remain between these two It forecasts, so hopefully precipitation will be near seasonal levels.

 

January, February, March:  This model is not hopeful for above average precipitation, or even average precipitation.  Overall, upper level high pressure is projected to be the most dominant feature for the next three months, resulting in average temperatures.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH today through most of the night tonight.  Monday will be pretty wild as strong differences in pressure tighten up between the interior west and a strong surface low off the northern California coast.  Winds Monday night and  early Tuesday will be out of the south to southeast at 15 to 30 MPH with stronger gusts and somewhat lighter winds on the east side north of Kern County.  Kern County will have to be watched closely Monday afternoon and night as models do show a strong wind event for much of the county, especially near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains.  Winds there could gust in excess of 60 MPH, especially in places like the bottom of the Grapevine.  Even as far north as Bakersfield, winds may gust to around 45 MPH.

 

Once the front goes through, winds will decrease rapidly and become out of the northwest at 15 to 25 MPH Tuesday afternoon and night.  Winds Wednesday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH, diminishing Wednesday night.

 

Rain: We have a major winter storm event at hand as two storms merge into one.  Subtropical  moisture from the southern low will arrive Monday, particularly during the afternoon, continuing through Tuesday.  Rain will be locally heavy at times.  By Tuesday afternoon, the rain will break off into showers and scattered thunderstorms cannot be ruled out with localized heavy rain and hail.  Showers will continue Tuesday night then diminish before sunrise with dry weather returning Wednesday.

 

Rainfall amounts n these blockbuster winter storms are always difficult to nail down as strong rain shadows develop along the west side and especially in Kern County.  I have seen these rain shadows actually spread into the eastern side of the valley from Fresno County southward.

 

On the east side of the valley from Monday through Tuesday night, upwards of an inch could be recorded with possible half inch totals along the west side.  A quarter to a third of an inch is likely in Kern County due to the rain shadow effect.

 

Longer term, dry weather will commence Wednesday afternoon with dry weather for the remainder of the week and possibly well into next week.

 

Frost:  All locations will be above freezing for the next seven to ten days and possibly longer.

 

Lows Tonight:  All locations will be above freezing.             

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s

Mid 50s to low to mid 20s late Monday afternoon through early Tuesday.

Humidity, Visalia, 70%/100%  Bakersfield, 50%/75%

Actual Humidity January 5, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 97%/66%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 10% tomorrow 0%, Bakersfield: Today 10% tomorrow 0%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days January 5, 2018: Stratford .33, Parlier .29, Blackwell, .40 Lindcove .33, Arvin .43, Orange Cove .36, Porterville .29, Delano .NA., Madera Two .30.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 51, Blackwell 53, Lindcove, 53, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove 48, Porterville 51, Delano NA, Madera Two 51

7.2

Record Temperatures: 71/17. Average Temperatures: 53/35

Heating Degree Days this Season: 925, -312 Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for January so far, 9.1+9.2

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since October 1, 2017  Fresno: .48 season. or -3.35.  Month to Date: .07

Since October 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  .07, or -2.08,  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 525, Parlier, 560, Arvin, 497, Shafter, 627, Stratford, 568, Madera two, 731, Alpaugh, NA, Lindcove, 546, Porterville, 713.  Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 7:12 am  Sunset: 4:59 pm. Hours of Daylight:  9:46

 

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  59 /  51 / 0.14 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  61 /  55 / 0.05 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  63 /  56 /    T /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  63 /  57 / 0.01 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  61 /  56 /    T /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  70 /  58 /    T /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  63 /  56 / 0.01 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1554 /  63 /  55 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  66 /  54 /    T /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH0800 /  64 /   M / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /   M /   M /    M /

 

Rainfall:                                                       Season     %        Last y.   %           Ave.       Annual Ave.

BISHOP                        0.00    0.16     9    1.32    71     1.87     5.18

SALINAS                       0.04    1.11    25    5.70   130     4.38    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.01    0.38     9    4.33   104     4.17    12.78

SANTA MARIA                      T    0.43     9    5.39   118     4.55    13.955

MADERA                        0.00    0.55    13    4.61   107     4.29    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.48    13    5.20   136     3.83    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.80    22    3.16    87     3.62    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.07     3    3.29   153     2.15     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.16     9    1.32    72     1.84     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    1.07    25    5.70   133     4.30    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.37     9    4.33   106     4.08    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.43    10    5.36   120     4.47    13.95

 

Next Report: Sunday, January 7/pm