January 9, 2018
Summary: The center of circulation around a deep low is just to the west of Santa Maria at this hour and is moving east/southeast. The counter clockwise circulation around the low is moving precipitation from southeast to northwest across the valley. Rain is widespread at this hour with the heaviest precipitation over parts of Kern and Kings Counties. Heavier precipitation is now moving into southeastern Tulare County. The low will move towards the east/southeast and will be over southern Kern County later this morning. During the afternoon, the rain will break off into showers and, with a pool of cold unstable air near the center of the storm, thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly in the south valley.
The backside of this storm will move southeastward into the valley later this evening, so precipitation should be pretty much over by midnight. A northwest flow will develop behind the low which could maintain light showers over the north facing slopes of the Kern County mountains, the Tulare County foothills.
Expect mostly to partly cloudy skies Wednesday, especially in the south valley where moisture banks up against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains. Skies will finally begin to clear Wednesday afternoon with the exception of Kern County and eastern Tulare County where residual cloud cover may last through Thursday morning.
Upper level high pressure will begin to build just off shore Wednesday night and Thursday then move inland Friday for the beginning of a warm air inversion over the valley. This will set the stage for fog and low clouds beginning Friday and lasting through next week. Temperatures this weekend and beyond will be determined by the coverage of the fog. For now, after this storm moves eastward, no precipitation is expected under persistent high pressure.
Forecast: Rain through mid morning. Becoming more showery during the late morning and afternoon hours. Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly south of a Hanford/Visalia line. Showers possible up until midnight with all precipitation ending by the early morning hours. Mostly to partly cloudy Wednesday through Thursday morning. Mostly clear Thursday through Tuesday with increasing amounts of night and morning fog, possibly lasting through the day in some areas.
Short Term:
| Madera 60/47/60/43/61 | Reedley 61/47/59/40/60 | Dinuba 60/45/61/39/60 | |
| Porterville 62/47/61/40/61 | Lindsay 61/45/61/39/61 | Delano 62/47/60/43/61 | |
| Bakersfield 63/48/59/45/62 | Arvin 63/45/59/45/62 | Taft 63/50/60/48/62 | |
| Lamont 63/48/59/44/61 | Pixley 62/47/60/42/62 | Tulare 60/45/60/40/61 | |
| Woodlake 62/46/60/39/61 | Hanford 62/48/60/43/61 | Orosi 61/48/60/41/61 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
AM fog/PM sun 43/61 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 43/58 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 42/55 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 45/56 |
Tuesday
AM fog/PM sun 45/56 |
Two Week Outlook: January 15 through January 21: This model indicates well above average temperatures will continue. It also indicates that there is a better than even chance of rain for northern and possibly central California.
January: Overall during January this season, temperatures should range somewhat above average. This model also shows equal chances of near average precipitation over the northern half of the state but below average precip over the southern half of California. We remain between these two It forecasts, so hopefully precipitation will be near seasonal levels.
January, February, March: This model is not hopeful for above average precipitation, or even average precipitation. Overall, upper level high pressure is projected to be the most dominant feature for the next three months, resulting in average temperatures.
Winds: Now that the center of the low is moving on shore, winds will begin to die off. The wind is screaming over the Tehachapi Mountains as Grapevine Peak is reporting a gust of 70 MPH at this hour. Later today, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH, diminishing this evening. By the early morning hours, winds will be generally less than 10 MPH, continuing Wednesday. Winds Wednesday night through Friday will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Rain, ranging from light to heavy, covers the entire valley this morning. The heaviest precipitation is in Kern and Tulare Counites. Interestingly, the precipitation is moving from southeast to northwest, wrapping around the northeast quadrant of this storm. Later this morning and during the afternoon, rain will become showery with a chance of thunderstorms, especially in the south valley. By midnight or so, the precipitation will end with dry conditions lasting for the remainder of the week and perhaps through next week, as well.
Rainfall amounts so far in the Sierra Nevada have ranged from 1 to 3 ½ inches. On the valley floor, generally from a quarter to three quarters of an inch with more rain tallying up. We’ll have more rainfall totals during the afternoon report.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing for the next seven to ten days and possibly longer.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Low to mid 50s
Humidity, Visalia, 80%/95% Bakersfield, 80%/95%
Actual Humidity January 7, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 99%/55%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 10% tomorrow 50%, Bakersfield: Today 10% tomorrow 30%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days January 7, 2018: Stratford .29, Parlier .27, Blackwell, .35 Lindcove .31, Arvin .39, Orange Cove .34, Porterville .26, Delano .NA., Madera Two 25. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 53, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 55, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 50, Porterville 53, Delano NA, Madera Two 52
7.2
Record Temperatures: 72/22. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 939, -340 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for January so far, 54.5+10.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: .48 season. or -3.49. Month to Date: .07
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: .07, or -2.15, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 525, Parlier, 560, Arvin, 497, Shafter, 627, Stratford, 568, Madera two, 767, Alpaugh, NA, Lindcove, 546, Porterville, 722. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:12 am Sunset: 5:01 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:48
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 61 / 52 / 0.20 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 61 / 54 / 0.30 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 62 / 53 / 0.28 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 60 / 53 / 0.20 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 67 / 57 / 0.05 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 62 / 53 / 0.21 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1526 / 63 / 54 / 0.12 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 62 / 53 / 0.10 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 58M / 51 / 0.73 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.97 2.39 44 8.73 162 5.39 14.06
MODESTO 0.49 2.04 43 7.12 151 4.70 13.11
MERCED M 1.49 34 7.07 162 4.36 12.50
MADERA 0.20 0.80 17 5.47 119 4.59 12.02
FRESNO 0.30 0.78 19 6.93 172 4.04 11.50
HANFORD 0.28 1.09 28 4.25 109 3.90 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.06 0.13 6 3.73 165 2.26 6.47
BISHOP T 0.16 8 2.77 142 1.95 5.18
SALINAS 0.49 1.60 35 6.84 151 4.54 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.34 0.72 17 6.44 148 4.34 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.13 0.56 12 7.45 158 4.72 13.95
Next Report: Tuesday, January 9/pm