January 13, 2018
Summary: Infrared satellite imagery designed to pickup the cloud cover in the lowest layer of the atmosphere tells quite a story this morning. There is fog or low clouds stretching from the base of the Tehachapi Mountains northward through the entire San Joaquin Valley and most of the Sacramento Valley. When I see it this entrenched, it leads me to believe there will be very little clearing this afternoon and possibly through Monday afternoon. Temperatures will be ruled by how much clearing occurs. The best chance of clearing will be near the foothills. Currently, Porterville and Bakersfield are reporting ¼ mile visibility while Hanford has a low overcast based at 400 feet and 200 feet at Fresno.
In the broader picture, strong upper level high pressure covers the eastern Pacific Ocean and the west coast with a ridge northward into Oregon. The high will drive temperatures into the low 70s in the foothills and along the coast while capping the valley with fog and low clouds. The high will begin to drop off over its northern flank Monday night and Tuesday. A low pressure system will move through northern and central California Tuesday and Tuesday night. light showers will spread down the valley, mainly north of Kern County, with weak high pressure temporarily filling in Wednesday and Thursday. Another possibly stronger and much colder system will drive southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska for a better chance of rain Thursday and Friday with lowering snow levels on the back side of the system.
Forecast: Fog and/or low clouds through Monday with a chance of partial afternoon clearing. Increasing cloudiness by late Monday night leading to a chance of showers Tuesday and Tuesday night, mainly north of Kern County. Partly cloudy Wednesday and Thursday with morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Thursday night with a chance of rain late Thursday night through Friday night. Partly cloudy Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 57/49/56/50/58 | Reedley 58/50/57/50/58 | Dinuba 57/48/57/49/58 | |
| Porterville 59/49/58/51/58 | Lindsay 59/50/58/51/58 | Delano 58/51/58/51/57 | |
| Bakersfield 60/52/59/52/60 | Arvin 61/48/59/50/60 | Taft 62/54/60/54/59 | |
| Lamont 59/51/59/52/59 | Pixley 59/51/58/51/58 | Tulare 57/49/58/50/58 | |
| Woodlake 59/50/58/50/59 | Hanford 58/50/58/51/59 | Orosi 59/51/58/51/59 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Light showers likely 51/63 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 48/63 |
Thursday
Increasing clouds 49/65 |
Friday
Showers likely 41/58 |
Saturday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 35/57 |
Two Week Outlook: January 18 through January 24: This model shows the storm track potentially moving into California from the Gulf of Alaska. At this point, it looks like temperatures will be below average with a reasonable chance of rain.
January: Overall during January this season, temperatures should range somewhat above average. This model also shows equal chances of near average precipitation over the northern half of the state but below average precip over the southern half of California. We remain between these two It forecasts, so hopefully precipitation will be near seasonal levels.
January, February, March: This model is not hopeful for above average precipitation, or even average precipitation. Overall, upper level high pressure is projected to be the most dominant feature for the next three months, resulting in average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Monday night. a weak low pressure system will move through Tuesday through Tuesday night with a better than even chance of light showers, mainly north of Kern County. Dry weather will return Wednesday through most of Thursday then the chance of rain will begin to increase later Thursday night, lasting through possibly Friday night. this is a colder type system so we should see snow down to 3,000 to 4,000 feet.
Frost: All locations will be well above freezing each night through at least Friday of next week. We’re still looking at the potential of a colder air mass swinging in behind a Gulf of Alaska type storm. Currently, this does not look like a critical situation at all, so we’ll just leave it at that for now as we’re still about a week out.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Humidity, Visalia, 80%/100% Bakersfield, 75%/100%
Actual Humidity January 11, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 97%/60%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 0% tomorrow 0%, Bakersfield: Today 20% tomorrow 20%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days January 11, 2018: Stratford .25, Parlier .25, Blackwell, .31 Lindcove .31, Arvin .30, Orange Cove .28, Porterville .22, Delano .NA., Madera Two 19. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 56, Blackwell 57, Lindcove, 57, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 56, Delano NA, Madera Two 55
7.2
Record Temperatures: 67/20. Average Temperatures: 54/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 976, -385 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for January so far, 54.8 +10.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.23 season. or -3.03. Month to Date: .48
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: .88, or -1.49, Month to Date: .82
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 532, Parlier, 568, Arvin, 497, Shafter, 627, Stratford, 568, Madera two, 811, Alpaugh, NA, Lindcove, 548, Porterville, 747. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:11 am Sunset: 5:04 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:52
Yesterday’s Weather:
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 58 / 43 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 61 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 60 / 40 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 62 / 47 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 60 / 42 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 59 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 61 / 49 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1552 / 62 / 47 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 55 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.52 61 10.14 176 5.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.25 64 8.31 165 5.05 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.99 42 8.42 176 4.79 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.31 26 7.06 142 4.98 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.23 28 8.42 194 4.34 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.68 40 5.04 119 4.24 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.88 37 4.52 188 2.40 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 9 3.96 188 2.11 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 2.13 44 7.60 155 4.89 12.83
PASO ROBLES M 2.16 46 7.66 162 4.72 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.95 38 8.29 163 5.08 13.95
Next Report: Saturday, January 13/pm