January 15, 2018
Summary: Skies have cleared over southern Tulare County and much of Kern County this afternoon where temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 60s. From roughly Visalia northward, fog and low clouds have been persistent. Current temperatures there are only in the low to mid 50s. a weak weather system will move into northern California tonight and will just brush central California late tonight and Tuesday morning. There is a chance of light showers from Fresno County northward with only a slight chance further south. It should, though, ultimately break up the inversion, giving us a break from the fog and low clouds for a couple of days.
A weak ridge of upper level high pressure will fill in behind Tuesday’s system and govern our weather Tuesday night through Thursday. There will be areas of morning fog and low clouds but we should see at least some sunshine during the afternoons. The high will break down Thursday night, allowing a stronger low pressure system to sweep southeastward into northern and central California Friday and possibly lasting into the first half of the day Saturday. As we’ve been discussing, this is a much colder system and it may lower snow levels down to 2,000 to 3,000 feet along the Sierra Nevada and 3,000 to 4,000 feet over the Kern County mountains. The potential remains unclear as to how much precipitation may be involved. Some models this afternoon are tracking the system a bit further north, reducing the chance of a good precipitation event. However, other models continue to show strong dynamics Friday through Saturday for reasonably decent precipitation.
Colder weather will swing in from the north behind this system for colder nights. More is discussed in the frost section below.
Saturday afternoon through Sunday night will be dry as a weak ridge builds in from the west. The trend continues this afternoon for another cold system moving into central California around Monday or Tuesday of next week.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness tonight. A chance of light showers from Fresno County northward late tonight and Tuesday morning with only a slight chance of showers further south. Partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon through Thursday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness Thursday night with periods of rain Friday into Saturday morning. Becoming mostly to partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday night with areas of morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night with a chance of rain Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 45/62/46/62 | Reedley 46/63/47/63 | Dinuba 45/62/45/62 | |
| Porterville 44/64/47/63 | Lindsay 44/63/46/63 | Delano 47/64/48/64 | |
| Bakersfield 47/65/46/66 | Arvin 46/66/47/66 | Taft 49/65/50/66 | |
| Lamont 45/65/47/65 | Pixley 45/63/47/63 | Tulare 44/62/45/63 | |
| Woodlake 46/63/47/63 | Hanford 44/63/46/63 | Orosi 44/62/46/63 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday. Winds will be out of the southeast Thursday night at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly from Fresno northward. Winds later Friday will be out of the northwest at 15 to 25 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: Late tonight and Tuesday morning, a fast moving and weak weather system will move through northern California and just clip central California. There is a chance of light showers from Fresno County northward with only a slight chance down into Kings and Tulare Counties. Dry weather will return Tuesday afternoon and will continue through at least Thursday and probably Thursday night. our next event will be in the form of a low pressure system moving southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska and into California Friday through Saturday morning. Models continue to differ on both the timing and intensity of this system, but suffice to say periods of rain will begin Friday and will possibly last well into Saturday morning. Snow levels will drop like a rock, initially at 8,000 feet then lowering to 2,000 to 3,000 feet behind the cold front. Dry weather will return Saturday afternoon through at least Sunday night. models are inconclusive on the next system which could arrive as early as Monday or as late as Tuesday. For now, we’ll go with a reasonable chance of rain early next week.
Frost Information: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night through Friday morning. As we’ve been discussing, a much colder air mass will swing in behind a cold front which will move through sometime late Friday or early Saturday. Even though the air mass is much colder, I do not consider this a major threat at all. Low to mid 30s are possible as early as Saturday morning, however my feeling is the Friday/Friday night storm may not be over until sometime Saturday morning, in which case all locations would continue to be above freezing. There’s a better chance of low to mid 30s and a small chance of upper 20s Sunday morning. Temperatures will depend on dew points, winds, etc. Clouds may actually begin to increase sometime Sunday night ahead of a new system which may move inland through central California Monday or Tuesday. So, there’s only a small opportunity between storm systems which will also act in our favor. Longer term, I don’t see anything that would result in a worrisome situation.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Next Report: Tuesday morning, January 16