January 17, 2018
Summary: Satellite imagery this morning indicates the entire valley is again socked in by fog and/or low clouds. The fog has also crept into the lower foothill regions. Bakersfield is reporting a visibility of ¼ mile, Fresno 1/8 of a mile, while Porterville, Visalia, and Hanford are reporting a low overcast based at 400 feet. I don’t anticipate much clearing this afternoon as high clouds will again move in above the fog layer, reducing the sun’s chance of burning off the pea soup. We should begin to see the inversion break by late Thursday as a low pressure system and its associated cold front move into the western U.S.
Models this morning are really not very impressive as far as precipitation amounts goes, but they do indicate measurable rain should occur all the way down the valley. After the cold front moves through late Thursday night or early Friday, a colder and more unstable air mass will follow for a chance of scattered showers into the pre-dawn hours Saturday. Snow levels by late Friday afternoon should lower to about 3,000 feet or so.
The air mass behind the front is much colder with temperatures dropping into the 30s Saturday and Sunday mornings and possibly Monday morning. More on this in the frost discussion below.
We are also tracking a second Pacific storm which models the past few days have been teasing us with regarding strength and the southern limit of the precipitation shield. This morning, models show the low moving inland a bit further north which would reduce the chance of rain Monday night and Tuesday, especially in the south valley. We’ll continue to monitor this situation, as well, as no doubt models will likely flip back and forth as we approach this time frame.
Models are also showing a possible third system out there, but for now it appears it will just affect northern California Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
Forecast: Fog and/or low clouds through at least midday Thursday with a chance of partial afternoon clearing. Increasing higher clouds Thursday afternoon. Mostly cloudy Thursday night with an increasing chance of rain, especially after midnight. Periods of rain for a time Friday morning with scattered showers possible Friday afternoon into early Saturday. Mostly to partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday afternoon and night. increasing clouds Monday leading to a small chance of showers Monday night and Tuesday, especially from Fresno County north. Becoming partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday with areas of night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 56/46/62/49/58 | Reedley 58/48/60/49/58 | Dinuba 57/48/59/50/58 | |
| Porterville 59/48/61/49/60 | Lindsay 59/48/61/48/60 | Delano 58/49/62/50/60 | |
| Bakersfield 59/49/63/50/60 | Arvin 63/44/67/49/61 | Taft 62/50/67/51/60 | |
| Lamont 59/50/64/51/59 | Pixley 57/48/63/50/58 | Tulare 57/47/61/49/59 | |
| Woodlake 59/47/63/48/59 | Hanford 57/49/62/49/58 | Orosi 59/47/62/48/58 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly cloudy 37/55 |
Sunday
AM fog/partly cloudy 34/56 |
Monday
AM fog /increasing clouds 34/61 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 39/59 |
Wednesday
AM fog/partly cloudy 37/62 |
Two Week Outlook: January 24 through January 30: This model is not quite as gung ho on the chance of precipitation for this time frame. In fact, it calls for a 50/50 chance either way. This model also indicates we’ll be dealing with marginally below average temperatures.
January: Overall during January this season, temperatures should range somewhat above average. This model also shows equal chances of near average precipitation over the northern half of the state but below average precip over the southern half of California. We remain between these two It forecasts, so hopefully precipitation will be near seasonal levels.
January, February, March: This model is not hopeful for above average precipitation, or even average precipitation. Overall, upper level high pressure is projected to be the most dominant feature for the next three months, resulting in average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be less than 10 MPH through Thursday morning with periods of near calm conditions. Winds will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH Thursday afternoon and night with locally stronger gusts from Fresno County north. Winds Friday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, especially along the west side, diminishing Friday night with generally light winds Saturday.
Rain: I am just not convinced that a significant precipitation event is on the way for central California with the possible exception of the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. The dynamics of the southern portion of this storm are really not too impressive, but still, light showers should arrive possibly as early as late Thursday afternoon with an increasing chance of showers Thursday night and Friday morning. The northwesterly flow behind the front is much colder and somewhat unstable so it’s possible showers may linger into the early morning hours Saturday.
Rainfall amounts from Fresno County northward should range between a tenth and a quarter of an inch with a tenth or two in Kings and Tulare Counties and less than a tenth in Kern County.
Dry weather will return Saturday and will continue through at least part of the day Monday. The next system, on paper anyway, is tracking further north than previous models were projecting. As you might expect, this will reduce the chance of precipitation for the valley, especially south of Fresno County.
Yet a third system is projected to form and move into northern California about Wednesday or Thursday of next week. This far out, it appears to be a northern California affair.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing through Friday morning. It’s possible a few frost pockets could dip into the lower 30s Saturday morning if the skies happen to open up. There is somewhat of a greater risk of low to mid 30s with a small possibility of upper 20s in the low spots Sunday and Monday mornings.
I do anticipate there will be plenty of upslope clouds on hand Saturday morning, in which case most, if not all, locations will be above freezing. Less cloud cover with an increasing amount of fog and low clouds looks likely Sunday and Monday mornings with the possibility of higher clouds moving in Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Conditions for Wednesday and beyond area quite speculative, but there is nothing on projections at this time to suggest anything more than lower 30s in coldest locations.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.. Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity, Visalia, 70%/100% Bakersfield, 65%/100%
Actual Humidity January 15, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 99%/61%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 20% tomorrow 0%, Bakersfield: Today 20% tomorrow 20%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days January 15, 2018: Stratford .20, Parlier .19, Blackwell, .28 Lindcove .22, Arvin .27, Orange Cove .24, Porterville .17, Delano .NA., Madera Two 16. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 55, Blackwell 57, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 56, Delano NA, Madera Two 55
7.2
Record Temperatures: 71/20. Average Temperatures: 55/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1031, -410 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for January so far, 53.8 +9.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.23 season. or -3.33. Month to Date: .82
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: .88, or -1.64, Month to Date: .82
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 539, Parlier, 582, Arvin, 509, Shafter, 641, Stratford, 581, Madera two, 889, Alpaugh, NA, Lindcove, 605, Porterville, 824. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:10 am Sunset: 5:09 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:58
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 56 / 46 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 55 / 46 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 52 / 46 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 55 / 45 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 61 / 49 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 52 / 45 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 61 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 54 / 44 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1554 / 61 / 46 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 60 / 45 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON T 3.52 57 10.14 165 6.13 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.25 60 8.31 154 5.40 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.99 39 8.42 163 5.16 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.31 25 7.06 133 5.30 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.23 27 8.42 181 4.64 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.68 37 5.04 111 4.54 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.88 34 4.65 182 2.56 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 9 4.06 179 2.27 5.18
SALINAS T 2.13 41 7.60 145 5.23 12.83
PASO ROBLES M 2.16 42 7.66 150 5.10 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.95 36 8.29 152 5.45 13.95
Next Report: Wednesday afternoon/January 17