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Forecast

January 23, 2018/pm report

January 23, 2018

Summary:  Low cloud cover which blanketed much of northern Tulare county and points northward is still surprisingly hanging in there, but is dissipating from south to north.  Weak upper level high pressure will hang around through tonight for clear skies, although no doubt some patchy fog will form Wednesday morning.  Later Wednesday, clouds will begin to increase ahead of the next weather system, and what will be the last weather system for a while.  The parent low with this storm is already moving inland through British Columbia with a cold front moving through western Washington and Oregon then southwestward over the Pacific.  The fact that the frontal system is so far detached from the main low pressure system will aid in the weakening process as it begins to lose its upper air support on its way down the valley later Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

 

A chance of showers will continue Thursday afternoon and evening in the cold, marginally unstable air behind the front.  A relatively strong northwest flow behind this system will no doubt cause upslope clouds to form against the Sierra Nevada foothills and the valley facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains.  The air mass behind the system is cold but fairly typical of the season.  Temperatures Thursday and Friday will fall back into the mid to upper 50s with a chance of local frost Friday morning and a slightly higher risk Saturday and Sunday, which is discussed below.

 

An upper ridge will build off shore and extend inland through California into the interior west while the next system moves into Washington and Oregon Friday and Saturday.  Forecast models show the high continuing to dominate our pattern through the end of the month.  In fact, the two week model which goes out through the first week of February is indicating a high risk of dry weather and above average temperatures.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear tonight with areas of fog Wednesday morning.  Increasing cloudiness on Wednesday with generally light showers spreading down the valley Wednesday night and Thursday morning.  A chance of showers Thursday afternoon and evening.  Becoming partly cloudy later Thursday night and Friday morning with the possible exception of Kern County which may remain mostly cloudy.  Mostly clear Friday afternoon and night.  mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday and Saturday night.  Becoming mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday afternoon then mostly clear Monday through Tuesday with increasing amounts of night and morning fog.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 31/62/44/57 Reedley 31/61/43/58 Dinuba 31/60/43/57
Porterville 32/62/44/59 Lindsay 30/62/43/58 Delano 33/63/45/58
Bakersfield 36/67/46/58 Arvin 32/67/44/58 Taft 42/66/46/58
Lamont 32/64/44/58 Pixley 32/62/43/58 Tulare 31/61/43/57
Woodlake 31/61/44/59 Hanford 32/62/45/59 Orosi 30/62/44/58

 

Winds: Winds will be less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Wednesday morning.  Winds will then be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH later Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.  by mid to late morning Thursday, winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, diminishing to around 5 to 10 MPH Thursday night with generally light winds Friday and Saturday.

 

Rain: This afternoon’s models continue to trend downward in the expectation for precipitation.  The chance for light showers will begin Wednesday night and last through Thursday morning with a chance of scattered showers Thursday afternoon and evening.  Dry weather will return later Thursday night and more than likely will continue through the end of the month.  In fact, the two week model shows a high chance of dry weather encompassing the first week of February as we continue to lose more and more ground in snow pack and rain totals.  Rainfall amounts from the incoming system will likely range from a tenth to a quarter of an inch in Fresno and Madera Counties, perhaps a tenth or two in Kings and Tulare Counties and less than a tenth of an inch over the valley portion of Kern County.

 

Frost Information:  The low cloud deck that blanketed portions of the valley this morning is rapidly dissipating this afternoon.  This will leave relatively clear skies for tonight although it is possible some high clouds may mix into the picture during the early morning hours.  Still, I look for temperatures to be similar to those of this morning with many locations sinking into the lower 30s with even a river bottom or two out there briefly brushing into the upper 20s.  all locations will be above freezing Thursday morning due to cloud cover and light precipitation.

 

Upslope clouds will no doubt form along the Sierra Nevada foothills and the valley facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains Thursday night and Friday morning.  The west side will clear out later Thursday night.  the eastern and southern flanks of the valley may have to wait until midday or after Friday for substantial clearing as a dry northwest flow moves a relatively cold air mass into central California.  In locations Friday morning where it does clear and winds die off, low 30s are possible with a slight possibility of upper 20s.  As high pressure begins to create a warm air inversion Saturday and Sunday, low to mid 30s are likely with perhaps an upper 20 or two out there in low spot.

 

Fog and/or low clouds will be on the increase, especially during the second half of the weekend and well into next week.  It’s possible fog and low clouds could take over, moderating temperatures through much of next week.

 

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

31

Porterville

33

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

31

Strathmore

30

McFarland

30

Ducor

32

Tea Pot Dome

31

Lindsay

30

Exeter

30

Famoso

33

Madera

32

Belridge

31

Delano

33

North Bakersfield

32

Orosi

30

Orange Cove

31

Lindcove

30

Lindcove Hillside

AF

Sanger River Bottom

28

Root Creek

30

Venice Hill

31

Rosedale

32

Jasmine

31

Arvin

31

Lamont

31

Plainview

30

Mettler

34

Edison

32

Maricopa

31

Holland Creek

33

Tivy Valley

30

Kite Road South

33

Kite Road North

30

AF=Above Freezing

 

Next report:

Wednesday, January 24