January 24, 2018
Summary: A considerable amount of fog formed overnight north of Kern County, mainly towards the center and western side of the San Joaquin Valley. Satellite imagery is rather interesting. The fog is moving slowly northwestward as a weak southeasterly flow is moving up the valley towards a cold front which is now headed into northern California. Rain has spread as far south as Ukiah along the coast and Redding inland. This is a fast moving system, but considering the parent low is so far to the north, the front will lose its dynamics as it moves down the valley tonight with only light amounts of precipitation expected. The front will already be moving into the Sierra Nevada by sunrise with a chance of showers Thursday morning in the marginally unstable but colder air mass moving in from the northwest.
As per usual, upslope clouds will develop along the west facing slopes of the Sierra and the valley facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains. This will maintain cloud cover over portions of the east side and in Kern County through Friday morning.
Upper level high pressure will begin to move eastward into California Friday night, nudging the next storm northward into the Pacific Northwest. With time, the high will only grow stronger and will create our typical warm air inversion by late in the weekend. This will set the stage for widespread fog and low clouds which could persist through the day, especially towards the center of the valley north of Kern County.
Temperature forecasting will be difficult next week due to the fog and low clouds, but the bottom line is that after this storm, we can expect a long dry spell encompassing the remainder of January and, if models are correct, possibly through the first week of February, as well.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness later today. Periods of light rain tonight and early Thursday. A chance of showers early Thursday morning, becoming partly to mostly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Clearing Friday afternoon then mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night through Saturday night with increasing amounts of night and morning fog. Mostly clear Sunday through Wednesday with extensive fog and low clouds, possibly lasting through the day in some areas.
Short Term:
| Madera 60/44/58/33/58 | Reedley 61/45/57/34/58 | Dinuba 59/43/57/33/57 | |
| Porterville 63/44/57/33/59 | Lindsay 63/43/58/32/59 | Delano 64/45/59/34/58 | |
| Bakersfield 66/46/59/38/60 | Arvin 67/44/60/34/60 | Taft 67/47/58/38/60 | |
| Lamont 66/44/58/34/59 | Pixley 64/43/57/33/58 | Tulare 61/45/57/33/58 | |
| Woodlake 62/45/58/33/58 | Hanford 62/45/57/33/58 | Orosi 62/44/57/32/58 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 32/58 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM 33/58 |
Monday
AM fog/PM 35/60 |
Tuesday
AM fog/PM 37/61 |
Wednesday
AM fog/PM 38/60 |
Two Week Outlook: January 31 through February 5: This model now indicates a blocking ridge of upper level high pressure will be over and off the west coast. This pattern would drive the storm track well north. Temperatures would rise to marginally above average values, assuming the fog doesn’t take over, with very little chance of precipitation.
February: This model doesn’t really grasp at any particular pattern through the month. In fact, central California, if you believe this model, should have temperatures close to seasonal values with near average precipitation, as well.
February, March, April: This model goes all the way through April and it is calling for a ridge of upper level high pressure off the southern California coast to be the most dominant, but not the only, feature during the spring months. If this model has any credence at all, temperatures should be marginally above average with below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast today and through tonight to around midnight at 5 to 15 MPH. Winds Thursday morning will switch and become out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts. Winds will be out of the northwest Thursday night at 5 to 10 MPH with winds of generally less than 10 MPH Friday through Saturday with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Rain is spreading over northern California at this hour along what is currently a strong cold front. Unfortunately, the upper air support needed to create a significant rain event over the valley simply will not be there as the front moves rapidly through our region later tonight and early Thursday. Most if not all the precipitation should end by midday Thursday with dry weather from Thursday night through the end of January. Medium range models do not appear favorable for precipitation for the first week of February.
Rainfall amounts from the incoming system may measure up to a quarter of an inch or so in Madera and Fresno Counties, perhaps a tenth or two in Kings and Tulare Counties, and less than a tenth over the valley portion of Kern County.
Frost: As of 6:00am, most locations were again in the low 30s. it’s possible a cold low lying location could chill into the upper 20s. all locations tonight will be above freezing as advancing cloud cover and precipitation move through later tonight and Thursday morning. The air mass moving in from the west/northwest behind the front is colder, but I don’t believe it’s quite as cold as the air mass we experienced a few days ago. Where it clears and winds become calm on Friday morning could see low 30s with a slight chance of upper 20s in river bottom and like locations. The potential for lower 30s is certainly there for Saturday and Sunday mornings. Beyond that, the valley will be capped with a warm air inversion which will be favorable for extensive night and morning fog. Some locations may not see the sun even during the afternoon. This type of pattern is conducive for above freezing conditions as the low clouds insulate the valley, so we’ll go with that forecast at this time but we’ll certainly keep an eye on things in case the fog is less dense and widespread as anticipated. At any rate, no cold air masses are showing up at this time on model projections going out through the first week of February.
Lows Tonight: All locations will be above freezing.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Mid 40s to the lower 50s.
Humidity: Visalia, 51%/100% Bakersfield, 40%.90%
Actual Humidity January 22, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 98%/39%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 50% tomorrow 10%, Bakersfield: Today 60% tomorrow 0%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days January 22, 2018: Stratford .26, Parlier .NA, Blackwell, .NA Lindcove .NA, Arvin .24, Orange Cove .32, Porterville .21, Delano NA., Madera Two 27. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 53, Blackwell 55, Lindcove 58, Arvin 57, Orange Cove 50, Porterville 53, Delano NA, Madera Two 52
7.2
Record Temperatures: 72/25. Average Temperatures: 56/36
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1155, -423 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for January so far, 51.7 +7.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.36 season. or -3.67. Month to Date: .95
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.03, or -1.74, Month to Date: .96
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 597, Parlier, 615, Arvin, 589, Shafter, 686, Stratford, 626, Madera two, 1015, Lindcove, 741, Porterville, 972. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:06 am Sunset: 5:16 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:07
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 57 / 48 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 60 / 47 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 60 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 59 / 49 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 60 / 38 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1500 / 48 / 37 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1559 / 59 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 62 / 34 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1559 / 57 / 41 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 53 / 45 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.73 55 12.49 186 6.73 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.41 57 10.55 176 5.99 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.17 38 9.84 172 5.71 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.43 25 9.24 159 5.80 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.36 27 10.06 197 5.10 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.72 35 6.24 127 4.90 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.03 37 5.79 206 2.81 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 8 5.59 226 2.47 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 2.24 39 9.86 170 5.81 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.20 39 10.59 186 5.70 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.97 33 10.58 175 6.06 13.95
Next Report: Wednesday afternoon, January 24