January 23, 2018
Summary: Low clouds developed over much of the valley during the night, but have taken on a rather odd configuration. Hanford and Fresno are each reporting overcast skies, Hanford at 3,400 feet and Fresno at just 800 feet. In the meantime, much of the southeast sector of the valley was clear as a weak off shore flow nudged the cloud deck a bit further north. Temperatures reflected this as many locations in Fresno and Madera Counties were in the upper 30s to as high as the mid 40s while Tulare and Kern Counties had temperatures at most locations as of 6:00am in the low to mid 30s.
A weak upper ridge is now moving in from the west and it will dominate our weather through Wednesday morning. The low clouds over portions of the valley will only slowly dissipate this afternoon. By Wednesday afternoon, clouds will be increasing ahead of an unfortunately weakening cold front. As has been the case so often this winter, models have really backed off on the potential for anything significant. The northern half of the valley may pick up upwards of a quarter of an inch, tapering off sharply to the south valley where only a tenth or two is now expected. Much of Kern County will be lucky to pick up a tenth of an inch.
The air mass behind the front which should move through sometime early Thursday morning is a typically cold one as the origins are from the Gulf of Alaska. There will be plenty of upslope clouds along the eastern and southern flanks of the valley through at least the first half of the day Friday, possibly lasting into early Saturday morning. The west side will clear out. A stronger and, what appears to be consistent, upper high will build off the California coast and extend inland into the interior west, eventually building a ridge into the Pacific Northwest. This, of course, is a dry pattern and will extend through the end of the month. This means, like December, January’s rain totals will be pitiful.
Forecast: Low overcast north of Kern County and southeastern Tulare County this morning, mostly clear elsewhere. Becoming mostly clear everywhere later this afternoon into early Wednesday with patchy morning fog Wednesday morning. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday afternoon with showers spreading down the valley Wednesday night, continuing for a time Thursday morning. A chance of light showers Thursday afternoon and evening. Becoming mostly to partly cloudy Thursday night with clearing skies Friday along the west side and persistent cloudiness along the east side and especially in Kern County. Clearing Friday afternoon with mostly clear skies Friday night through Tuesday with increasing amounts of night and morning fog and low clouds, possibly persisting through the day in some areas by early next week.
Short Term:
| Madera 58/32/62/45/58 | Reedley 59/32/61/43/59 | Dinuba 58/31/62/42/58 | |
| Porterville 61/32/62/44/59 | Lindsay 60/31/62/42/58 | Delano 61/33/64/44/58 | |
| Bakersfield 62/37/65/45/59 | Arvin 62/33/65/43/59 | Taft 62/39/65/44/58 | |
| Lamont 61/33/65/43/59 | Pixley 61/32/62/42/59 | Tulare 59/31/61/42/57 | |
| Woodlake 60/32/62/43/58 | Hanford 59/32/62/44/59 | Orosi 60/31/62/43/58 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Partly cloudy 34/58 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 33/59 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 32/59 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 35/62 |
Tuesday
AM fog/PM sun 36/62 |
Two Week Outlook: January 29 through February 3: This model now indicates a blocking ridge of upper level high pressure will be over and off the west coast. This pattern would drive the storm track well north. Temperatures would rise to marginally above average values, assuming the fog doesn’t take over, with very little chance of precipitation.
February: This model doesn’t really grasp at any particular pattern through the month. In fact, central California, if you believe this model, should have temperatures close to seasonal values with near average precipitation, as well.
February, March, April: This model goes all the way through April and it is calling for a ridge of upper level high pressure off the southern California coast to be the most dominant, but not the only, feature during the spring months. If this model has any credence at all, temperatures should be marginally above average with below average precipitation.
Winds: winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Wednesday morning. Winds Wednesday afternoon will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH. winds will switch and be out of the northwest Thursday at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly along the west side. Winds will decrease to 5 to 15 MPH Thursday night with generally light winds Friday.
Rain: Our weather will remain dry throughout most, if not all, of Wednesday. Mainly light showers will spread down the valley Wednesday night through Thursday morning with a chance of showers Thursday afternoon and evening. As has been the case so often this winter, models are backing off on rainfall estimates for central California leading up to the event. The quarter to one half projections of a few days ago are now down to a quarter inch or less in Madera and Fresno Counties with perhaps a tenth or two in Kings and Tulare Counties, sloping to less than a tenth of an inch in Kern County.
Dry weather will return Thursday night and will more than likely we’ll remain dry through the end of the month. If this does indeed pan out, January’s precipitation totals will again be pitiful, following last month’s nearly dry totals.
Frost: There were two distinct personalities in temperatures last night. In Madera County and parts of Fresno Counties, a few locations are still in the mid to upper 40s while in Tulare and Kern Counties, most locations are in the lower 30s. a low cloud deck covers Fresno County and northern Tulare County while skies are generally clear south of that line. I do anticipate these clouds will slowly mix out during the afternoon with mostly clear skies tonight. This should allow widespread low to mid 30s and a slight chance of typical cold spots briefly dipping into the upper 20s. The upper 20s would certainly be more the exception than the rule.
A Pacific storm will be moving through Thursday morning for above freezing conditions. Upslope clouds will bank up against the Sierra Nevada foothills and the Tehachapi Mountains for slow clearing Friday morning, however the air mass swinging in behind the Thursday event is cold and may allow some locations which clear to dip into the upper 20s to lower 30s. there is a better chance of this occurring Saturday and Sunday mornings as high pressure again caps the valley for mostly clear skies and generally low to mid 30s again.
By Saturday, but more so Sunday and Monday, conditions will be favorable for fog and low clouds which should play a greater role in maintaining above freezing temperatures. If the fog turns out to be just patchy, readings would fall into the 30s each night, but certainly nothing to write home about.
Longer range models through the end of the month show a persistent high over and off the coast for dry weather and no chance of a particularly cold air mass invading.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
30 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
31 |
| Arvin
32 |
Lamont
32 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
34 |
| Edison
33 |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid 40s to near 50. Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Visalia, 70%/100% Bakersfield, 60%.95%
Actual Humidity January 21, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 98%/48%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 40% tomorrow 10%, Bakersfield: Today 60% tomorrow 30%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days January 21, 2018: Stratford .21, Parlier .NA, Blackwell, .34 Lindcove .NA, Arvin .21, Orange Cove .29, Porterville .18, Delano .NA., Madera Two 23. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 53, Blackwell 55, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 50, Porterville 53, Delano NA, Madera Two 53
7.2
Record Temperatures: 70/25. Average Temperatures: 36/36
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1135, -424 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for January so far, 52.0 +7.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.36 season. or -3.61. Month to Date: .95
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.03, or -1.71, Month to Date: .96
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 583, Parlier, 606, Arvin, 575, Shafter, 674, Stratford, 616, Madera two, 1004, Alpaugh, NA, Lindcove, 695, Porterville, 954. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:07 am Sunset: 5:15 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:05
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 62 / 38 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 61 / 37 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 59 / 31 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 60 / 31 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 60 / 37 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 58 / 33 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 60 / m / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 61 / 33 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1558 / 60 / 38 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 44 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.07 3.73 56 12.39 187 6.64 14.06
MODESTO 0.03 3.41 58 10.54 178 5.91 13.11
MERCED 0.01 2.17 38 9.76 173 5.64 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.43 25 8.67 151 5.74 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.36 27 9.96 198 5.03 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.72 35 6.21 128 4.85 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.03 37 5.66 204 2.77 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 8 5.45 222 2.45 5.18
SALINAS 0.02 2.24 39 9.74 170 5.73 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.20 39 10.33 184 5.61 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.97 33 10.35 173 5.97 13.95
Next Report: Tuesday afternoon/January 23