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Forecast

January 27, 2018/pm report

January 27, 2018

Summary:  The air mass is now very stable as that big upper high off shore has now moved on shore with much warmer air aloft now in place.  This will continue to build a warm air inversion above the valley floor.  This will be favorable for increasing amounts of night and morning fog beginning Sunday morning.  Visible satellite imagery indicates there are few high clouds moving into central California and that will be the case tonight and Sunday.  With generally clear skies tonight and a relatively cool and shallow layer of air on the valley floor, many locations will fall to below freezing with a handful coming in at just below the freezing mark.  More  in the frost discussion below.

 

An off shore flow is now developing, as well.  This could dry out the extreme south valley, lowering dew points, but I don’t really see much of an impact north of Kern County.  Storm systems will continue to ride over the top of the high and into the Pacific Northwest through Tuesday.  Once we get into Wednesday and beyond, the high will start expanding northward into western Canada with a complete blockade of any Pacific storms.  Polar air will slide south/southeastward east of the Rockies as winter returns with a vengeance back there.

 

There is one interesting configuration showing up on one model this afternoon, so go ahead down to the frost discussion where this is detailed.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies with occasional periods of high clouds through Tuesday with increasing amounts of night and morning fog and low clouds.  Mostly clear Wednesday through Saturday with extensive night and morning fog and afternoon clearing.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 30/62/32/63 Reedley 31/63/33/64 Dinuba 29/61/31/64
Porterville 30/64/32/64 Lindsay 29/63/31/65 Delano 32/64/34/65
Bakersfield 36/65/38/67 Arvin 32/66/34/67 Taft 38/65/41/68
Lamont 32/64/35/67 Pixley 31/64/34/64 Tulare 29/62/32/63
Woodlake 30/62/32/64 Hanford 31/64/34/65 Orosi 30/62/33/65

 

Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods near calm conditions.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next seven to possibly ten days.

 

Frost Information:  Skies are hazy but still generally clear throughout the valley this afternoon as is the southern 2/3 of California.  The off shore high is beginning to build inland, tightening up the warm air inversion above the valley floor in the process.  Fog, theoretically, should become more extensive each morning with that typical cap over the valley.  This may or may not have an impact on temperatures as we move forward the next several days.  It just depends on how widespread the fog eventually becomes.

 

Coldest locations tonight will chill down to 27 to 28 degrees with most locations ranging from 29 to 33.  The inversion tonight should shape up pretty nicely with temperatures at 34 feet from 4 to 7 degrees warmer.  Slow moderations will begin Monday morning as that warm high actually begins to slowly warm up the valley, especially during the day.  By Tuesday and Wednesday we may see readings in the mid to upper 30s at most locations and perhaps upper 30s to lower 40s by the end of the work week.

 

Of much more interest to me is one model showing a classic freeze pattern developing about the fifth or sixth of February.  This is one of those types of patterns where a huge upper high builds into Alaska and northwest Canada with the development of a strong low over the interior west.  This creates a strong northeast flow both at the surface and aloft which, historically, is one of the more dangerous patterns we see.  The good news is that this is only the 27th of January and this is only one model, so hopefully no trends develop.  Just thought I’d pique your interest and give you a heads up on a potential problem late next week.

 

Lows Tonight: 

Terra Bella

29

Porterville

30

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

30

Strathmore

29

McFarland

29

Ducor

31

Tea Pot Dome

30

Lindsay

29

Exeter

28

Famoso

31

Madera

30

Belridge

30

Delano

31

North Bakersfield

33

Orosi

30

Orange Cove

30

Lindcove

29

Lindcove Hillside

AF

Sanger River Bottom

26

Root Creek

28

Venice Hill

29

Rosedale

32

Jasmine

30

Arvin

33

Lamont

32

Plainview

30

Mettler

AF

Edison

33

Maricopa

31

Holland Creek

33

Tivy Valley

29

Kite Road South

32

Kite Road North

29

AF=Above Freezing

 

 

Next report:  Sunday morning, January 28