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Forecast

January 28, 2018/report

 

January 28, 2018

Summary:  Most of the fog this morning is up in western Merced County with some pockets of fog down into western Fresno County.  Just patchy fog is found elsewhere.  Otherwise, skies are mostly clear.

 

The high at the upper levels of the atmosphere is now pretty much overhead.  This has created a warm bubble of subsiding air above the valley floor.  The freezing level is now at 12,300 feet which is quite high for a winter reading.  At the surface, weak high pressure is building over the Great Basin and will generate an off shore flow through tomorrow.  However, the only impact of this flow will be over the higher peaks of the Sierra Nevada and the Tehachapi Mountains.  This high will remain as is through Monday then flatten out some Tuesday in response to a low pressure system moving through the Northwest.

 

The high will not only rebound Wednesday, but will build a ridge far to the north into the Gulf of Alaska.  This is an ideal pattern for well above average temperatures for central California with no chance of precipitation.  This also is ideal for polar air masses to move into the Rockies and the Midwest, fortunately well to our east.

 

There are some tricky forecasts coming up later this week in terms of frost forecasting.  They are discussed below.

 

The only tricky part to the current forecast is morning fog and/or low clouds.  The potential fog will  have its own personality each morning, but at the very least we’re almost to the point where the fog and low clouds will burn off earlier due to a slowly rising sun angle.

 

Forecast: Pockets of fog this morning, mainly north of Kern County, otherwise it will be mostly clear through tonight.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday through Tuesday with areas of morning fog possible.  Mostly clear and hazy with areas of night and morning fog Wednesday through Sunday with occasional  high clouds.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 63/33/64/36/63 Reedley 63/34/62/36/65 Dinuba 62/32/63/35/65
Porterville 64/34/62/36/66 Lindsay 64/32/62/35/65 Delano 65/35/66/37/66
Bakersfield 66/39/67/43/68 Arvin 66/38/67/39/69 Taft 66/42/67/45/68
Lamont 65/37/67/39/69 Pixley 64/34/65/37/65 Tulare 62/32/64/35/65
Woodlake 63/33/64/36/65 Hanford 64/34/62/38/66 Orosi 62/32/64/35/65

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Wednesday

AM fog/PM sun

38/65

Thursday

AM fog/PM sun

38/66

Friday

AM fog/PM sun

38/68

Saturday

AM fog/PM sun

41/68

Sunday

AM fog/PM sun

41/68

 

Two Week Outlook:  February 3 through February 9:  This model now indicates a blocking ridge of upper level high pressure will be over and off the west coast.  This pattern would drive the storm track well north.  Temperatures would rise to marginally above average values, assuming the fog doesn’t take over, with very little chance of precipitation.

 

February:  This model doesn’t really grasp at any particular pattern through the month.  In fact, central California, if you believe this model, should have temperatures close to seasonal values with near average precipitation, as well.

 

February, March, April:  This model goes all the way through April and it is calling for a ridge of upper level high pressure off the southern California coast to be the most dominant, but not the only, feature during the spring months.  If this model has any credence at all, temperatures should be marginally above average with below average precipitation.

 

Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Wednesday with near calm conditions nights and mornings.

 

Rain: Expect dry weather for the next week and possibly ten days.

 

Frost:  On the average, temperatures were around 2 degrees milder at most locations overnight as  the air mass begins its slow modification process.  Under mostly clear skies today, temperatures will warm into the low to mid 60s and dew points will climb into the mid to upper 40s.  mostly locations tonight will be at least slightly above freezing with the exception of the colder river bottom and like locations which may slip to 29 to 30 for short durations.

 

Tuesday morning will see the continuation of this modification process with most locations lowering into the mid to upper 30s with only a chance of low 30s in those low spots.

 

Wednesday and beyond appear above freezing as upper level high pressure firms up even more and dominates our pattern for the rest of the week.

 

Temperature forecasting may be affected by night and morning fog, but we’re almost into February now which means there’s a greater chance of fog clearing in the afternoons, even if it does become widespread.

 

On yesterday afternoon’s report we mentioned that a classic freeze pattern was showing up on one model.  On this morning’s model runs, there’s an indication of a cold polar air mass sliding into the Great Basin and points eastward on February 5 and 6.  In other words, this air mass will be far enough to the east to miss the valley.  This is the first flip flop but hopefully this trend will continue.  This time frame, though, is something I will definitely need to continue watching.

 

Lows Tonight: 

Terra Bella

32

Porterville

33

Ivanhoe

33

Woodlake

33

Strathmore

32

McFarland

32

Ducor

34

Tea Pot Dome

33

Lindsay

31

Exeter

31

Famoso

33

Madera

33

Belridge

31

Delano

34

North Bakersfield

34

Orosi

31

Orange Cove

31

Lindcove

30

Lindcove Hillside

AF

Sanger River Bottom

30

Root Creek

30

Venice Hill

31

Rosedale

34

Jasmine

32

Arvin

36

Lamont

35

Plainview

32

Mettler

AF

Edison

AF

Maricopa

33

Holland Creek

35

Tivy Valley

31

Kite Road South

34

Kite Road North

31

AF=Above Freezing

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Mid to upper 40s.

Humidity: Visalia, 55%/95%  Bakersfield, 50/80%

Actual Humidity January 26, 2018: Porterville, 96%/48%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 90% tomorrow 70%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 70%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days January 26, 2018: Stratford .44, Parlier .42, Blackwell, .NA Lindcove .37, Arvin .37, Orange Cove .45, Porterville .36, Delano .35., Madera Two 35.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 50, Blackwell 55, Lindcove, 55, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 48, Porterville 50, Delano 49, Madera Two 51

7.2

Record Temperatures: 70/25. Average Temperatures: 57/37

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1218, -436 Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for January so far, 51.3 +6.4

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since October 1, 2017  Fresno: 1.64 season. or -3.66.  Month to Date: 1.23

Since October 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  1.10, or -1.82,  Month to Date: 1.03

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 634, Parlier, 664, Arvin, 637, Shafter, 733, Stratford, 657, Madera two, 1068, Lindcove, 787, Porterville, 1041.  Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 7:04 am  Sunset: 5:20 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:13

 

Yesterday’s Weather:

 

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  58 /  33 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  59 /  37 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  60 /  32 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  60 /  32 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  58 /  37 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1500 /  57 /  33 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1600 /  58 /  36 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  60 /  32 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1557 /  55 /  40 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                                                       Season     %        Last y.   %           Ave.       Annual Ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    3.99    56   12.49   176     7.09    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    3.55    56   10.55   167     6.33    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    2.29    39    9.84   166     5.91    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    1.55    26    9.24   155     5.98    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    1.64    31   10.06   187     5.37    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    1.78    35    6.24   124     5.02    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    1.10    37    5.79   196     2.96     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.20     8    5.59   218     2.57     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    2.51    41    9.86   160     6.15    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    2.30    38   10.59   175     6.05    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    2.02    32   10.64   166     6.41    13.95

 

 

Next Report: Monday morning, January 29