January 27, 2018
Summary: The beginning of a long period of dry weather is at hand as upper level high pressure off shore slowly builds in from the eastern Pacific. The freezing level 36 hours ago was 4,900 feet. The overnight sounding at VAFB placed the freezing level at 10,600 feet. That illustrates very well the warmer air aloft moving in from the west.
High clouds are moving over the top of this high then southeastward into northern and central California. These clouds were streaming overhead during the night but were too thin to keep temperatures from reaching the freezing (or below) mark. Many locations are in the low 30s with another spattering of upper 20s out there. More on tonight’s forecast below.
The main challenge for the foreseeable future will be to try to outguess the fog monster. With warmer air aloft and stable conditions, and available moisture on the valley floor, fog may become widespread by early next week, although the fog has its own personality and will do what it’s going to do.
A dry cold front will try to penetrate the high and move into northern California Monday night and Tuesday. Any effect on central California will be minimal with perhaps some high clouds but little else. It remains to be seen whether or not this feature will disturb the lower levels of the atmosphere. For now, I’m betting that it will not.
Beginning Wednesday, a very amplified pattern will take shape. This is similar to what we saw the first week in January when a strong high builds far north and a big polar trough of low pressure moves into the Midwest and points east. This pattern always results in well above average temperatures in California with the exception of the valley, depending on the fog. It does allow bitterly cold air to slide into the middle of the country and along the east coast. The unfortunate part of all this is the fact that there is no chance of rain with this pattern. The new two week model this morning gives little chance of a break in the overall pattern. Expect dry weather with above average temperatures next week, unless the fog takes over.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Monday with periods of high clouds at times and areas of night and morning fog with hazy conditions. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday through Tuesday night with areas of night and morning fog and partial afternoon clearing. Mostly clear Wednesday through Saturday with extensive night and morning fog and low clouds with hopefully some afternoon clearing.
Short Term:
| Madera 60/30/62/32/63 | Reedley 60/31/61/33/62 | Dinuba 59/29/61/31/62 | |
| Porterville 61/30/63/32/63 | Lindsay 60/29/61/31/63 | Delano 60/32/63/34/64 | |
| Bakersfield 61/36/63/38/67 | Arvin 60/32/63/34/66 | Taft 61/38/63/43/67 | |
| Lamont 60/32/61/34/65 | Pixley 60/30/62/31/63 | Tulare 59/29/61/31/62 | |
| Woodlake 60/30/61/31/63 | Hanford 61/30/61/32/62 | Orosi 61/30/61/31/63 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
AM fog/PM sun 37/62 |
Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 38/63 |
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 37/63 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 39/68 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 37/64 |
Two Week Outlook: February 3 through February 9: This model now indicates a blocking ridge of upper level high pressure will be over and off the west coast. This pattern would drive the storm track well north. Temperatures would rise to marginally above average values, assuming the fog doesn’t take over, with very little chance of precipitation.
February: This model doesn’t really grasp at any particular pattern through the month. In fact, central California, if you believe this model, should have temperatures close to seasonal values with near average precipitation, as well.
February, March, April: This model goes all the way through April and it is calling for a ridge of upper level high pressure off the southern California coast to be the most dominant, but not the only, feature during the spring months. If this model has any credence at all, temperatures should be marginally above average with below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Tuesday with near calm conditions nights and mornings.
Rain: Expect dry weather for the next week and possibly ten days.
Frost: We had a good radiational cooling frost last night with most locations in the low 30s but perhaps half a dozen of the usual frost stations slipped briefly into the upper 20s. tonight is shaping up to be similar as upper level high pressure slowly builds in from the eastern Pacific. To illustrate the warmer air moving in aloft, the freezing level 36 hours ago was 4.900 feet and this morning’s sounding indicated a freezing level of 10,600 feet. All this means is a warm air inversion is developing above the valley floor. With dew points mainly in the mid 30s to the lower 40s and mostly clear skies, many locations tonight will again slide into the lower 30s with coldest locales in the upper 20s for short durations.
We’re late enough in the year now where temperatures have an easier time moderating, even at night, as the marginally higher sun angle has a tendency to bring temperatures up. However, this can be a painfully slow process so Monday morning may also see temperatures in the lower 30s, but most locations should nudge out of the upper 20s.
Next week will be dry and stable with fog and low clouds being the next challenges. If the fog does not take over, mid to upper 60s are possible next week, even approaching 70 during the afternoons with lows generally in the low 30s to the lower 40s.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
30 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
34 |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
28 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
31 |
Jasmine
30 |
| Arvin
32 |
Lamont
31 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
33 |
Maricopa
30 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Upper 30s to the mid 40s.
Humidity: Visalia, 60%/95% Bakersfield, 50%.90%
Actual Humidity January 25, 2018: Porterville, 96%/45%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 70%, Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 80%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days January 25, 2018: Stratford .39, Parlier .39, Blackwell, .NA Lindcove .32, Arvin .31, Orange Cove .42, Porterville .31, Delano .NA., Madera Two 35. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 51, Blackwell 55, Lindcove, 56, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 48, Porterville 51, Delano NA, Madera Two 52
7.2
Record Temperatures: 72/24. Average Temperatures: 57/37
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1199, -436 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for January so far, 51.5 +6.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.64 season. or -3.59. Month to Date: 1.23
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.10, or -1.78, Month to Date: 1.03
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 620, Parlier, 650, Arvin, 618, Shafter, 719, Stratford, 643, Madera two, 1053, Lindcove, 772, Porterville, 1022. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:05 am Sunset: 5:18 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:11
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 59 / 31 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 59 / 36 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 60 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 58 / 31 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 58 / 37 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 56 / 31 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1559 / 55 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 59 / 31 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1556 / 59 / 34 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 58 / 38 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.99 57 12.49 178 7.00 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.55 57 10.55 169 6.25 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.29 39 9.84 168 5.87 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.55 26 9.24 156 5.94 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.64 31 10.06 190 5.30 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.78 36 6.24 125 5.00 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 38 5.79 198 2.92 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 8 5.59 219 2.55 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 2.51 41 9.86 162 6.07 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.30 39 10.59 178 5.96 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.02 32 10.64 168 6.32 13.95
Next Report: Saturday afternoon, January 27