February 5, 2018
Summary: Any changes for the next five days will be subtle as that cement wall along the eastern Pacific continues to ridge into the Pacific Northwest and southern British Columbia, driving temperatures in some cases to near record values. A weak upper air disturbance will quickly move southeastward through the Great Basin Tuesday. It may lower temperatures by two to three degrees, but that’s it. The high will bounce back once we get to mid week with near record highs possible again as early as Wednesday. Through Friday night, the only fly in the ointment will be areas of fog mainly up the center of the valley late nights and early mornings. Occasional high clouds will drift overhead from time to time, as well.
An upper low will race southward Saturday just to the east of the Sierra Nevada. At this juncture, it appears there’s no chance of rain from this system, although it’s possible temperatures could drop into the mid to upper 60s Sunday and Monday.
By Tuesday of next week, a closed low will drop southward, ending up in central California about Monday night or Tuesday and southern California next Wednesday. These types of systems rarely bring significant precipitation and more often than not they are completely drop with the possible exception of the high Sierra.
Medium range models through the 18th of February are indicating the chance of precipitation remains very low with above average temperatures continuing.
Forecast: Other than areas of late night and early morning fog north of Kern County and up the center of the valley, it will be mostly clear and hazy through Friday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 74/42/70/41/73 | Reedley 75/42/71/41/74 | Dinuba 73/41/70/42/72 | |
| Porterville 75/42/72/42/75 | Lindsay 75/40/71/41/75 | Delano 76/44/72/44/73 | |
| Bakersfield 77/48/75/47/76 | Arvin 77/45/75/44/77 | Taft 75/53/73/52/75 | |
| Lamont 76/44/75/44/76 | Pixley 76/43/74/43/75 | Tulare 74/41/71/40/74 | |
| Woodlake 75/42/72/42/72 | Hanford 75/41/72/41/74 | Orosi 75/41/71/41/74 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 43/71 |
Friday
Mostly clear 42/71 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 44/70 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 41/66 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 42/67 |
Two Week Outlook: February 11 through February 17: This model now indicates a blocking ridge of upper level high pressure will be over and off the west coast. This pattern would drive the storm track well north. Temperatures would rise to marginally above average values, assuming the fog doesn’t take over, with very little chance of precipitation.
February: This model doesn’t really grasp at any particular pattern through the month. In fact, central California, if you believe this model, should have temperatures close to seasonal values with near average precipitation, as well.
February, March, April: This model goes all the way through April and it is calling for a ridge of upper level high pressure off the southern California coast to be the most dominant, but not the only, feature during the spring months. If this model has any credence at all, temperatures should be marginally above average with below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Thursday with near calm conditions nights and mornings.
Rain: Expect dry weather for the next week and possibly ten days.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. A colder low will drop into the interior west over the weekend which could conceivably spill some drier and marginally cooler air into the valley. It could possibly mean mid to upper 30s with a slight chance of lower 30s, especially Sunday. Another low will drop into central California about Monday night or Tuesday. It also appears dry but has the potential of dropping a cooler air mass into the valley. For now, we’ll go frost free with this pattern but if they do carry enough relatively colder air, some lower 30s will be possible Sunday through Tuesday of next week. We’ll tweak the forecast as necessary.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity, Visalia, 40%/95% Bakersfield, 35/85%
Actual Humidity February 3, 2018: Delano, 97%/54%. Porterville, 90%/48%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 80%, Bakersfield: Today 90% tomorrow 90%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days February 3, 2018: Stratford .NA, Parlier .42, Blackwell .49 Lindcove .48, Arvin .50, Orange Cove .54, Porterville .44, Delano .47., Madera Two .46. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 54, Blackwell 55, Lindcove, 56, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 53, Delano 52, Madera Two 52
7.2
Record Temperatures: 77/28. Average Temperatures: 59/37
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1320, -475 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for February so far, 55.2 +7.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.64 season. or -4.24. Month to Date: .00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.10, or -2.15, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 708, Parlier, 734, Arvin, 681, Shafter, 800, Stratford, 723, Madera two, 1173, Lindcove, 864, Porterville, 1149. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:57 am Sunset: 5:29 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:29
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 73 / 43 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 75 / 47 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 74 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 75 / 37 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 76 / 46 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 72 / 42 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1553 / 76 / 42 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 74 / 43 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 73 / 53 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.99 51 12.91 164 7.86 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.55 50 10.99 156 7.06 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.29 36 10.40 163 6.40 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.55 24 9.76 153 6.40 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.64 28 10.23 172 5.96 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.78 33 6.68 125 5.35 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 33 5.88 179 3.29 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 7 5.63 203 2.78 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 2.51 36 10.21 148 6.88 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.30 34 11.26 166 6.77 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.02 28 10.94 152 7.21 13.95
Next Report: Monday, February 5/pm