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Forecast

February 7, 2018/report

February 7, 2018

Summary:  There is a very subtle change that has taken place over the past 24 hours.  The off shore flow due to a weak disturbance that raced through the Great Basin yesterday spilled some drier air onto the valley floor.  Satellite imagery indicates there’s no fog in the valley, although it is possible that there are some patches out there.  Very strong upper level high pressure continues unabated over the eastern Pacific Ocean with a ridge extending far to the north into southern Alaska.  The freezing level  taken overnight was 13,600 feet, which is pushing summertime readings.  The high is not going anywhere.  The only challenge is the weather from Saturday through Tuesday as two waves of low pressure will move through the high with most of the energy moving into the Great Basin, generating a strong off shore flow.  This will bring somewhat cooler temperatures, although even with this change temperatures will still run a bit above average.

 

A second system will arrive Tuesday.   Models are all over the place on this feature, ranging from a slight chance of showers to nothing.  For now, it’s best to keep the forecast dry as each set of models seems to want to push the dynamics of all this further east.

 

Beginning Wednesday, the semi-permanent high of this winter will regain its positioni, dominating the situation for the remainder of next week.  The two week model is not encouraging as it is predicting the chance of rain to be very low with the usual above average temperatures.

 

Forecast: Clear skies through Friday night with patchy morning fog.  Mostly clear to possibly occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Monday.  Partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday.  Mostly clear Tuesday night and Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 74/42/74/43/73 Reedley 74/41/73/42/73 Dinuba 73/40/73/41/73
Porterville 75/41/75/42/74 Lindsay 75/40/74/41/73 Delano 75/44/74/44/72
Bakersfield 76/47/75/47/73 Arvin 76/43/75/43/72 Taft 75/54/75/53/72
Lamont 75/44/75/43/73 Pixley 74/42/74/42/72 Tulare 73/41/73/42/72
Woodlake 74/42/74/42/73 Hanford 75/42/74/42/71 Orosi 73/41/73/42/73

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Mostly clear

42/70

Sunday

Partly cloudy

43/70

Monday

Partly cloudy

40/69

Tuesday

Partly cloudy

36/65

Wednesday

Mostly clear

36/68

 

Two Week Outlook:  February 13 through February 19:  This model continues to show a blocking ridge of upper level high pressure over and off the west coast.  This pattern would drive the storm track well north.  Temperatures would rise to marginally above average values, assuming the fog doesn’t take over, with very little chance of precipitation.

 

February:  This model doesn’t really grasp at any particular pattern through the month.  In fact, central California, if you believe this model, should have temperatures close to seasonal values with near average precipitation, as well.

 

February, March, April:  This model goes all the way through April and it is calling for a ridge of upper level high pressure off the southern California coast to be the most dominant, but not the only, feature during the spring months.  If this model has any credence at all, temperatures should be marginally above average with below average precipitation.

 

Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of calm conditions through Friday night.  Winds Saturday will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH along the west side.

 

Rain: Expect dry weather for at least the next week to ten days.

 

Frost:  Models continue to be in a state of war with one another in trying to figure out a pattern for Saturday through Tuesday.  Two waves of low pressure will move through: one on Saturday…which appears very dry…and another Monday night and Tuesday, which is a little stronger.  Most of the models still show dry weather.  The main challenge Saturday through Tuesday will be a minor cooling trend, but a possibly drier air mass will settle on the valley floor, lowering dew points.  For now, it does not appear serious with temperatures in the mid 30s to the lower 40s with a chance of a few locations in the lower 30s.  Another shot of moderately colder air will arrive Monday night and Tuesday.  At this point, I’ll stick with a mid to upper 30s regime with a chance of lower 30s in the usual cold spots.  By Wednesday, upper level  high pressure will be building again, nudging any potential storminess to our east and sealing in the valley’s fate with above average temperatures during the latter part of next week.

 

Lows Tonight: 

All locations will be above freezing tonight.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Mid 30s to the lower 40s.

Humidity: Visalia, 40%/95%  Bakersfield, 40/75%

Actual Humidity February 5, 2018: Delano, 89%/44%.  Porterville, 96%/40%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 100%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days February 5, 2018: Stratford .NA, Parlier .43, Blackwell .50 Lindcove .51, Arvin .55, Orange Cove .57, Porterville .48, Delano .52., Madera Two .49.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford NA, Parlier 55, Blackwell 55, Lindcove, 56, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 54, Delano 52, Madera Two 53

7.2

Record Temperatures: 74/24. Average Temperatures: 59/37

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1333, -496 Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for February so far, 56.4 +8.4

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since October 1, 2017  Fresno: 1.64 season. or -4.39.  Month to Date: .00

Since October 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  1.10, or -2.24,  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 713, Parlier, 741, Arvin, 683, Shafter, 807, Stratford, 734, Madera two, 1194, Lindcove, 870, Porterville, 1167.  Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:55 am  Sunset: 5:31 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:33

 

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  71 /  42 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  72 /  48 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  74 /  41 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  73 /  42 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  75 /  46 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  71 /  43 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1557 /  71 /  44 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  74 /  44 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1554 /  72 /  55 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  70 /  47 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                                                       Season     %        Last y.   %           Ave.       Annual Ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    3.99    50   13.60   169     8.05    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    3.55    49   11.38   157     7.24    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    2.29    35   10.80   165     6.56    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    1.55    24    9.95   152     6.54    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    1.64    27   10.46   171     6.11    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    1.78    33    7.19   132     5.46    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    1.10    32    6.08   179     3.39     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.20     7    5.69   200     2.84     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    2.51    36   10.42   147     7.07    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    2.30    33   11.99   172     6.96    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    2.02    27   11.81   159     7.42    13.95

 

Next Report: Wednesday, February 7/pm