February 8, 2018
Summary: Visibilities south of Fresno are not the greatest, but they have improved a bit by recent standards. Most locations are reporting a visibility of 5 to 8 miles with the best visibility being in eastern Tulare County and much of Kern County. A weak off shore surface flow is adding a bit of mixing to the atmosphere, temporarily weakening the cap over the valley. Temperatures by 1:00pm were already in the mid 70s in the warmer locations, so no doubt a few locations, especially in Kern County, will once again eclipse the 80 degree mark.
The massive high which has just dominated the situation for much of January and so far through February will hold on through Friday night. on Saturday, a weak wave of upper level low pressure will move rapidly through with no real impact other than to start a cooling trend. On Monday through Wednesday of next week, we’ll have a bit of a challenge, especially since models are once again in conflict on how to handle a low pressure system which will move through here Monday into early Tuesday. One model indicates the center of circulation will be just west of San Luis Obispo Monday night. This means a good part of this system would be over water so it’s possible this system could generate a few light showers, mainly over the mountains. By Wednesday, it will go into a transformation into a closed low off the southern California coast. There are a couple of models which continue to suggest this system will pick up subtropical moisture from off the Baja coast and transport it into southern California and possibly into the southern portion of central California, mainly from Kern County south.
The newest models indicate the low will move to a position of Baja by Thursday and Friday, pulling any potential shower activity well to our south. The main effect of all of this will be to lower temperatures to near seasonal values. We should see temperatures in the mid 60s by Monday and possibly the low to mid 60s Tuesday through Thursday of next week.
Forecast: Clear skies through Saturday night. mostly clear Saturday night and Sunday with occasional high clouds. Variable cloudiness Monday through Tuesday night with a slight chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers, mainly near the Sierra Nevada and the Tehachapi Mountains. Partly cloudy Wednesday. Becoming mostly clear Wednesday night and Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 41/73/42/68 | Reedley 42/73/41/68 | Dinuba 40/72/41/67 | |
| Porterville 41/73/42/69 | Lindsay 40/74/41/69 | Delano 44/73/43/68 | |
| Bakersfield 49/74/47/70 | Arvin 45/75/44/69 | Taft 54/74/51/70 | |
| Lamont 44/74/43/69 | Pixley 41/73/42/70 | Tulare 40/72/41/68 | |
| Woodlake 42/73/42/68 | Hanford 42/73/41/69 | Orosi 41/73/41/69 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday night. winds Saturday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH but with local gusts to 20 MPH, mainly along the far west side. Winds Saturday night and Sunday will be generally out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH.
Rain: Expect dry weather at least through Sunday night and possibly indefinitely. There is certainly a wild card to deal with, however, in the form of a rapidly moving low pressure system which some models predict will have the center of circulation just off the central coast Monday afternoon through early Tuesday. Since some of the circulation around the low would be over water, it is possible sprinkles or isolated light showers could occur Monday afternoon into early Tuesday before the low positions itself off the southern California coast. There may be a complex patter Wednesday and Thursday. This same low could possibly tap into the subtropics and transport moisture northward around its eastern flank into southern California and even south/central California. There is wide disparity on models on what exactly will eventually evolve, but for now we’ll keep Wednesday through Friday dry but may need to make amendments to the forecast in future forecasts based on Mother Nature’s behavior.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees through Saturday morning and quite possibly beyond. Cooler air will arrive Saturday behind a weak upper trough which will zoom through the area. It’s possible mid to upper 30s could occur Sunday morning but for now we’ll keep the threat of frost out of the forecast. A stronger but fairly dry weather system will dive southward from western Canada through central California by Monday. Cloud cover and wind conditions will no doubt keep readings above freezing. For Wednesday and beyond, mid to upper 30s are certainly possible in the colder locations, but at this point I still want to go with above freezing conditions. We will be closely watching the nature of the air mass that will be settling in here in case changes need to be made to the forecast, but I don’t anticipate anything extreme at this point.
Next Report: Friday morning, February 9