February 10, 2018
Summary: The change in the overall pattern we’ve been discussing has occurred as the high has backed up off shore, allowing the first wave of weak upper level low pressure to move through. This little feature is marked only by a band of high clouds which are currently moving through with the vast majority of energy from this system swinging through the Great Basin.
Temperatures this afternoon will be anywhere from 5 to 7 degrees cooler than yesterday’s readings. Additional cooling will take place Sunday and more especially Monday as a stronger low pressure system dives southward from western Canada with some models indicating the center of the low will be right over central California by Tuesday morning. Models also agree that this system will be extremely moisture starved. Nevertheless, there will be a chance of light showers and snow showers over the Sierra Nevada with a small chance of precipitation over the valley floor Monday night through Tuesday night.
models show the low off the southern California coast Wednesday, but further off shore than earlier models had indicated. Some of these models still hold onto the idea of the low moving moisture in from the south, possibly spreading light showers over southern California Thursday and Friday. there’s a slight chance that this activity could move as far north as Kern County, but as of now the remainder of the growing area should remain dry.
The low will then race eastward late Friday and Friday night, ending any additional chances of precipitation even for southern California. As this occurs, another massive high at the upper levels of the atmosphere will build over the eastern Pacific and will begin to extend into about the western one-third of the U.S., meaning the dry pattern will continue from next weekend and, for now, beyond.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Monday morning. Becoming partly cloudy Monday afternoon with variable cloudiness at times Monday night through Tuesday night with a small chance of light showers. Partly cloudy Wednesday through Friday with a slight chance of showers Thursday and Friday, mainly from Kern County southward. Mostly clear Friday night and Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 70/35/67/34/61 | Reedley 70/36/67/35/60 | Dinuba 69/33/67/33/60 | |
| Porterville 70/35/67/33/61 | Lindsay 70/34/67/33/61 | Delano 71/38/67/36/61 | |
| Bakersfield 71/41/68/40/62 | Arvin 71/39/68/36/62 | Taft 71/46/68/42/61 | |
| Lamont 71/39/68/36/62 | Pixley 70/39/68/36/70 | Tulare 69/36/67/34/61 | |
| Woodlake 69/37/68/34/61 | Hanford 71/37/67/34/60 | Orosi 69/35/67/33/60 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Slight chance of showers 43/62 |
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy 44/65 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 40/67 |
Friday
Mostly clear 41/68 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 40/71 |
Two Week Outlook: February 17 through February 23: For a change, this model is indicating temperatures will actually hover close to seasonal values as a northwest flow aloft prevails. If you’re hoping for precipitation, this model is not helpful as it indicates the chance of rain will remain low.
February: This model doesn’t really grasp at any particular pattern through the month. In fact, central California, if you believe this model, should have temperatures close to seasonal values with near average precipitation, as well.
February, March, April: This model goes all the way through April and it is calling for a ridge of upper level high pressure off the southern California coast to be the most dominant, but not the only, feature during the spring months. If this model has any credence at all, temperatures should be marginally above average with below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH at times today and tonight with stronger gusts possible along the west side. Winds Sunday will continue to favor a northwesterly direction at no more than 5 to 10 MPH at times. Winds Sunday night through Tuesday will be generally in the 5 to 15 MPH range but with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Conditions will remain dry through Monday. By Monday night and Tuesday, a weak and moisture starved low will move through. There could be enough dynamics for scattered light showers, mainly over the mountains, but a small chance over the valley floor. By Wednesday, the low will be off the southern California coast. Models still indicate that there’s a chance of moisture moving northward along the eastern flank of the low, possibly spreading light showers into southern California. There’s a slight chance a few showers could spread as far north as Kern County Thursday into Friday then all precipitations will come to an end Friday afternoon. Dry weather will again take hold for next weekend and for now it looks like all of the following week.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight, but at or near 32 in river bottom and like locations is possible. Most locations will range from 34 to 40. A dry air mass will continue to move into central California through the weekend, so Monday morning will see similar conditions with possibly a marginally higher threat of lower 30s in more locations. On Tuesday through Wednesday, a great deal of cloud cover will be over the area for above freezing conditions. The air mass will have modified somewhat once we get past midweek, plus cloud cover may move into the south valley Thursday into early Friday from a system moving through southern California. Beyond Friday, above average temperatures will again be the norm as a massive upper high will be centered just off shore, so it looks like no threat of frost from next weekend and beyond.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Low to mid 40s
Humidity: Visalia, 40%/95% Bakersfield, 35/55%
Actual Humidity February 8, 2018: Delano, 85%/36%. Porterville, 91%/35%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 90%, Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 90%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days February 8, 2018: Stratford .NA, Parlier .52, Blackwell .63 Lindcove .57, Arvin .64, Orange Cove .65, Porterville .56, Delano .60., Madera Two .53. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford NA, Parlier 56, Blackwell 56, Lindcove, 57, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 55, Delano 53, Madera Two 53
7.2
Record Temperatures: 78/27. Average Temperatures: 60/37
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1350, -528 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for February so far, 57.4 +9.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.64 season. or -4.61. Month to Date: .00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.10, or -2.37, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 725, Parlier, 752, Arvin, 685, Shafter, 819, Stratford, 750, Madera two, 1224, Lindcove, 884, Porterville, 1189. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:52 am Sunset: 5:34 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:40
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 75 / 43 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 75 / 46 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 76 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 76 / 61 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 77 / 48 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 73 / 44 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 75 / 43 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 75 / 44 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1556 / 75 / 54 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 76 / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.99 48 14.92 179 8.33 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.55 47 12.01 160 7.50 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.29 34 11.86 174 6.81 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.55 23 10.58 157 6.75 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.64 26 10.58 167 6.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.78 32 7.43 132 5.64 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 31 6.14 174 3.52 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 7 6.57 225 2.92 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 2.51 34 11.29 154 7.33 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.30 32 12.57 174 7.22 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.02 26 12.22 158 7.74 13.95
Next Report: Saturday, February 10/pm