February 11, 2018
Summary: Skies are relatively clear throughout central California at this hour with the exception of a few high clouds. Most locations were down into the 30s this morning, pretty much as expected. More on that in the frost discussion below.
As we look to our north, we see a well defined low pressure system off the central Oregon coast. The low will move inland through northwest California this afternoon then will slide south/southeast right over central California later Monday. Interestingly enough now, the forecast pretty much shows the low moving very little Tuesday night and Wednesday before it finally drops to a position off the northern Baja/southern California coast. In this position, there would be no chance of showers from Wednesday afternoon on. By Friday, this system will be rapidly moving into Arizona. This is a relatively cold system so it is possible snow levels could drop down to 3,000 to 4,000 feet late tonight and Monday. All the models continue to portray this system as being very moisture starved. However, on satellite imagery it actually is rather impressive looking so we’ll keep a chance of showers in the forecast for Monday through Tuesday night.
By the time we get to the weekend, our old nemesis the eastern Pacific high will again build over the eastern Pacific Ocean with California flanked on its eastern rim. That will result in a northwest flow, maintaining moderate temperatures but still a few degrees above average.
Next week also looks dry as the high shifts a bit eastward. The bottom line is, after this little rain chance that will set up tomorrow, a continuation of the dry regime will be at hand.
Forecast: Occasional high clouds, otherwise it will be mostly clear through this morning. High clouds will begin to increase by late afternoon. Variable cloudiness tonight through Wednesday. There will be a small chance of showers Monday through Tuesday night. partly cloudy Wednesday. Mostly clear Wednesday night through Sunday with a few patches of night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 68/40/58/35/61 | Reedley 67/39/58/35/60 | Dinuba 68/37/58/33/60 | |
| Porterville 69/39/58/34/61 | Lindsay 69/37/58/33/61 | Delano 69/41/58/36/61 | |
| Bakersfield 71/43/58/41/62 | Arvin 71/38/57/40/60 | Taft 70/44/59/42/61 | |
| Lamont 70/39/58/38/62 | Pixley 69/39/58/35/62 | Tulare 69/37/58/35/60 | |
| Woodlake 69/37/58/34/61 | Hanford 68/37/58/36/61 | Orosi 69/37/58/34/60 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Partly cloudy 35/62 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 36/62 |
Friday
Mostly clear 34/65 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 38/70 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 39/71 |
Two Week Outlook: February 18 through February 24: This model indicates cold air will dive into the Rocky Mountain region, however the eastern side of our blocking ridge will be over California during this time frame. This will result in at least marginally above average temperatures will precipitation chances remaining very low.
February: This model doesn’t really grasp at any particular pattern through the month. In fact, central California, if you believe this model, should have temperatures close to seasonal values with near average precipitation, as well.
February, March, April: This model goes all the way through April and it is calling for a ridge of upper level high pressure off the southern California coast to be the most dominant, but not the only, feature during the spring months. If this model has any credence at all, temperatures should be marginally above average with below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH today. Winds tonight will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH but with local gusts to 25 MPH and possibly 30 MPH along the west side. Winds Monday night will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with generally light winds Tuesday through Wednesday.
Rain: There will be a chance of light showers beginning later Monday and lasting through Tuesday night. a low will move inland through northwest California this afternoon and by late tonight and Monday will be centered somewhere over central California. These models also continue to portray this system as moisture starved, so theoretically the chance of light showers will be fairly small. If they do occur, though, it would be no surprise. Rainfall amounts on the valley floor will generally range at a tenth of an inch or less. The chance of precipitation will end late Tuesday night with dry weather Wednesday through the rest of the week and quite possibly through the remainder of next week.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and again Monday night. clouds will begin to increase tonight ahead of a fast moving and relatively cold system. Heavy cloud cover and a chance of showers will continue through Tuesday night with clearing skies Wednesday. The air mass behind this system is fairly cold, but nothing serious. Anytime from Wednesday morning through the remainder of the week, widespread mid to upper 30s are likely with some locations dipping briefly into the lower 30s. by Saturday and Sunday, the air mass will have modified with most locations in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. longer range models indicate the possibility of a cold air mass moving into California is unlikely.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Low to mid 30s.
Humidity: Visalia, 40%/95% Bakersfield, 35/55%
Actual Humidity February 9, 2018: Delano, 85%/34%. Porterville, 93%/34%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 20%, Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 20%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days February 9, 2018: Stratford .NA, Parlier .55, Blackwell .65 Lindcove .59, Arvin .67, Orange Cove .65, Porterville .59, Delano .63., Madera Two .54. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford NA, Parlier 56, Blackwell 57, Lindcove, 57, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 56, Delano 54, Madera Two 54
7.2
Record Temperatures: 75/29. Average Temperatures: 61/38
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1356, -538 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for February so far, 57.6 +9.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.64 season. or -4.68. Month to Date: .00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.10, or -2.42, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 730, Parlier, 756, Arvin, 685, Shafter, 825, Stratford, 754, Madera two, 1233, Lindcove, 888, Porterville, 1196. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:51 am Sunset: 5:35 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:42
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 73 / 44 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 74 / 49 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 75 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 76 / 39 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 75 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 73 / 45 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1557 / 73 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 73 / 44 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / 72 / 56 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.99 47 15.53 184 8.42 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.55 47 12.52 165 7.58 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.29 33 12.21 177 6.89 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.55 23 11.74 172 6.82 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.64 26 11.11 174 6.39 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.78 31 7.76 136 5.70 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 31 6.52 183 3.56 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 7 6.65 225 2.95 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 2.51 34 11.31 152 7.42 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.30 31 12.84 176 7.31 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.02 26 12.81 163 7.84 13.95
Next Report: Monday, February 12/am