February 12, 2018
Summary: It seems in dry years you cannot buy a raindrop. Considering we’re only at 20% to 25% of seasonal average, it’s pretty discouraging. The current upper level low is centered near the Kings/Fresno County line and is moving southwestward. The northern half of the San Joaquin Valley has cleared out, but variable amounts of cloud cover remain from roughly Merced southward through Kern County. The only precipitation occurring is light snow showers over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. The freezing level taken earlier this morning over Oakland had dropped to 3,900 feet as that cold pool of air moves overhead. The center of this feature will move off the southcentral California coast by Tuesday morning, far enough off shore to ensure no precipitation occurs after tonight. By Wednesday, what is left of this system will journey through southern California and then into the Desert Southwest by Thursday. With a relatively cold air mass now in place, there will be local areas of frost over the next couple of nights as skies clear and winds settle down. More in the frost discussion below.
From Friday through Sunday, we will be on the eastern flank of the eastern Pacific high. This will maintain a north to northwest flow, keeping temperatures fairly seasonal. The high will again shift further west off shore from the early to mid part of the week next week, allowing a series of impulses to move rapidly from north to south into California. This will again cause temperatures to dip below average with possible local frost concerns by Tuesday or Wednesday. Models are still indicating a north to northeast flow will be at hand about the 21 or 22, keeping temperatures below average with possible frost. Unfortunately, even with all these weather changes, no legitimate chance of precipitation is in sight.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness tonight with a slight chance of isolated light showers. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday and Tuesday night. mostly clear Wednesday through Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 31/61/31/64 | Reedley 32/62/31/63 | Dinuba 30/60/31/63 | |
| Porterville 32/62/32/64 | Lindsay 30/61/31/63 | Delano 33/62/33/65 | |
| Bakersfield 38/62/37/65 | Arvin 37/61/36/65 | Taft 41/62/40/64 | |
| Lamont 36/61/35/65 | Pixley 32/62/32/64 | Tulare 30/61/32/63 | |
| Woodlake 32/62/32/63 | Hanford 31/62/32/64 | Orosi 31/61/31/63 | |
Winds: Winds tonight will be mainly out of the northwest at around 5 to 10 MPH, becoming light after midnight. Winds Tuesday through Thursday will be at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: There remains a slight chance of an isolated sprinkle or light shower over the valley floor tonight, but the vast majority of locations will remain dry. Expect dry weather Tuesday and on through the remainder of the week. It is extremely doubtful precipitation will occur next week, either.
Frost Discussion: Tonight will be quite variable. The center of a cold upper level low is near the Kings/Fresno County line this afternoon and so is a pool of cold, unstable air aloft. Earlier today, the freezing level over Oakland was down to 3,900 feet which one would assume would be similar to the level over the valley floor. Skies have generally cleared from Merced northward, but variable cloudiness remains over the rest of the valley. This will continue through at least the late evening hours. It’s possible that clear sector will move slowly southward during the course of the night with the possibility of mostly clear skies during the early morning hours. The key to tonight’s forecast will be cloud cover, or possibly the lack thereof, and mixing as the low moves off to our southwest.
Coldest readings tonight in those areas with little to no wind and clear skies could drop to 28 to 30 degrees with most locations in the low to mid 30s. Upper 30s are even possible in areas where clouds are more dominant.
Looking ahead to Tuesday and Wednesday, similar conditions will prevail before moderation occurs by Friday morning as the stronger February sun nudges temperatures upwards.
The pattern for next week appears cold, especially after Tuesday. A north to south flow out of western Canada will be evident, which may pump cold Canadian air into California. I noted in particular about the 21 to the 22 a possible northeast flow may develop aloft, which is a semi-freeze configuration. That sounds a bit scary, but we’re late enough into February now where low to mid 20s will not occur but it is something we’ll have to watch and report on as the week goes by.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
30 |
McFarland
30 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
AF |
| Kite Road South
AF |
Kite Road North
AF |
Next Report: Tuesday morning, February 13