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Forecast

February 13, 2018/report

February 13, 2018

Summary:  it was cold last night, especially in Fresno and Madera Counties where cloud cover was less evident.  Madera, Sanger, and Fowler, as of 6:00am, were reporting a low of 29 degrees.  More in the frost discussion below.

 

The center of circulation of our cold upper low has now moved just to the southwest of Santa Barbara and will continue to drift westward for a while.  It’s still close enough to rotate some cloud cover in from the southeast, mainly in Kern County.  Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear not only today, but through the weekend.  The low will finally move through southern California Thursday then into the Desert Southwest Thursday night.  This will allow the eastern Pacific high to nudge eastward again, putting California in a northwest flow aloft.

 

As of now, there is no precipitation in the forecast even long term.  However, models are indicating the high will once again drift farther off shore by Monday, allowing a cold northerly flow to develop with several waves of low pressure moving through this flow.  Like the current system, models are portraying these systems as dry with maybe a small chance of showers over the high Sierra.  This is a cold pattern and may lead to frost concerns again by the middle of next week.  Even the two week model is indicating a high probability of below average temperatures with the chance of precipitation remaining very low.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear with occasionally cloudiness  north of Kern County today and partly cloudy in Kern County.  Mostly clear tonight through Sunday night.  Partly cloudy Monday and Tuesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 61/31/63/34/62 Reedley 62/31/64/34/62 Dinuba 61/30/64/33/63
Porterville 63/31/64/33/63 Lindsay 62/30/64/34/62 Delano 63/32/64/35/61
Bakersfield 62/37/63/40/61 Arvin 61/34/63/37/6 Taft 62/40/63/41/61
Lamont 63/34/63/39/62 Pixley 61/31/64/34/61 Tulare 61/29/64/33/62
Woodlake 61/30/63/33/62 Hanford 62/32/64/35/62 Orosi 62/30/64/32/62

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Friday

Mostly clear

35/64

Saturday

Mostly clear

35/67

Sunday

Mostly clear

39/68

Monday

Partly cloudy

42/66

Tuesday

Partly cloudy

38/62

 

Two Week Outlook:  February 18 through February 24:  This model shows a considerable amount of cold air diving into the Pacific Northwest then into the interior west with some of this air spilling into California.  This would favor at least marginally below average temperatures, but with a blocking ridge off shore precipitation continues to be doubtful.

 

February:  This model doesn’t really grasp at any particular pattern through the month.  In fact, central California, if you believe this model, should have temperatures close to seasonal values with near average precipitation, as well.

 

February, March, April:  This model goes all the way through April and it is calling for a ridge of upper level high pressure off the southern California coast to be the most dominant, but not the only, feature during the spring months.  If this model has any credence at all, temperatures should be marginally above average with below average precipitation.

 

Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions to continue indefinitely, but I do want to hedge a bit.  Beginning Monday, a cold north to south flow will begin aloft with possibly a series of weak waves of low pressure moving rapidly through the area.  All the models suggest these systems will be dry, but we will have to watch this closely as we are still a week away and a lot could change between now and then.

 

Frost:  This was the coldest morning we’ve seen for a while, at least  north of Kern County.  As of 6:00am, Madera, Sanger, and Fowler reported lows of 29 degrees with numerous locations in the lower 30s.  Kern County had more cloud cover so most locations remained above freezing.

 

Tonight will be similar with possibly colder temperatures in Kern County due to reduced cloud cover.  That upper low which actually produced a sprinkle or two yesterday is now just to the southwest of  Santa Barbara and is pulling off to the south/southwest.  With generally clear skies and little to no wind, good radiational cooling will occur tonight.

 

Coldest low lying areas will drop to between 27 and 29 degrees with most flatland terrain generally from 30 to 32 with hillsides remaining above freezing.  Temperatures should remain slightly warmer over portions of Kern County.

 

The air mass will begin to moderate, pulling overnight lows up slight, Thursday and Friday although colder locations may drop to 30 to 32.  Mid to upper 30s are likely Saturday and Sunday with isolated lower 30s.

 

Longer term, Monday and Tuesday may have enough cloud cover to moderate temperatures somewhat.  However, the overall outlook for next week appears colder than average as a north to south flow sets up.  By the middle of next week we could see temperatures similar to what are occurring now and possibly even slightly colder.  That is certainly not set in stone, but it is definitely a pattern associated with at least local areas of frost.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

31

Porterville

30

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

30

Strathmore

30

McFarland

30

Ducor

32

Tea Pot dome

30

Lindsay

30

Exeter

29

Famoso

32

Madera

29

Belridge

30

Delano

32

North Bakersfield

32

Orosi

30

Orange Cove

31

Lindcove

30`

Lindcove Hillside

AF

Sanger River Bottom

27

Root Creek

28

Venice Hill

30

Rosedale

32

Jasmine

30

Arvin

33

Lamont

30

Plainview

30

Mettler

34

Edison

33

Maricopa

30

Holland Creek

33

Tivy Valley

29

Kite Road South

33

Kite Road North

30

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern, Mid to upper 30s

Humidity: Visalia, 35%/100%  Bakersfield, 40%/85%

Actual Humidity February 11, 2018: Delano, 81%/18%.  Porterville, 91%/23%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 90%, Bakersfield: Today 50% tomorrow 80%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days February 11, 2018: Stratford .NA, Parlier .61, Blackwell .74 Lindcove .61, Arvin .73, Orange Cove .71, Porterville .62, Delano .67., Madera Two NA.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford NA, Parlier 57, Blackwell 58, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 57, Delano 55, Madera Two 54

7.2

Record Temperatures: 76/27. Average Temperatures: 61/38

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1373, -552 Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for February so far, 57.3 +8.8

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since October 1, 2017  Fresno: 1.64 season. or -4.82.  Month to Date: .00

Since October 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  1.10, or -2.50,  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 740, Parlier, 764, Arvin, 690, Shafter, 833, Stratford, 768, Madera two, 1254, Lindcove, 894, Porterville, 1211.  Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:49 am  Sunset: 5:37 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:46

 

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  60 /  36 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  59 /  40 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  57 /  36 /    T /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  55 /  35 /    M /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  61 /  41 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  56 /  36 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1552 /  54 /  36 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  60 /  35 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1555 /  58 /  45 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  59 /  46 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                                                       Season     %        Last y.   %           Ave.       Annual Ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    3.99    46   15.53   181     8.60    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    3.55    46   12.52   162     7.74    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    2.29    32   12.21   173     7.05    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    1.55    22   11.74   168     6.97    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    1.64    25   11.11   170     6.53    11.50

HANFORD                          T    1.78    31    7.76   133     5.83    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    1.10    30    6.59   181     3.65     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.20     7    6.65   221     3.01     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    2.51    33   11.31   149     7.58    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    2.30    31   12.84   172     7.47    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    2.02    25   12.88   160     8.04    13.95

 

Next Report: Tuesday, February 13/pm