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Forecast

February 13, 2018/pm report

February 13, 2018

Summary:  The center of circulation of a cold upper low is a bit further west this afternoon and is about 150 miles west/southwest of Santa Barbara.  The counterclockwise flow around the system is generating a few showers along the immediate south/central California coast from Santa Maria southward.  There is a swath of cloud cover extending from the Kern County mountains northwestward over the southwestern portion of the valley and a few blow off clouds are  moving off the Tehachapis and the southern Sierra Nevada.  Most of our region, though, is generally clear.

 

The only tricky part of the forecast will involve Kern County which is still on the far northeastern rim of the low.  There may be in and out cloud cover in Kern County, but it appears skies will be  mostly clear from Kings and Tulare Counties northward.  The low will weaken and move quickly across southern California Wednesday night and Thursday, returning mostly clear skies to all of central California through the weekend as the off shore high again shifts further to the east.

 

Next week appears somewhat similar to what we’re experiencing now.  By Monday, the eastern Pacific high will again move westward away from California.  A strong north to south flow will begin Monday with ripples of low pressure embedded within the low.  As of now, these features appear dry, however as  you might expect, as each wave moves through central California there will be a reinforcing shot of cold air from western Canada which means next week will be chilly, especially by the standards of the recent past. The potential will be there for at least local frost by the middle of next week.

 

Forecast: Partly cloudy tonight in Kern County with mostly clear skies elsewhere.  Possible occasional cloudiness.  Mostly clear Wednesday and on through Sunday night.  Becoming partly cloudy Monday through Tuesday and cooler.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 30/64/34/61 Reedley 31/64/35/62 Dinuba 30/63/33/61
Porterville 30/64/33/62 Lindsay 30/65/34/62 Delano 32/65/35/61
Bakersfield 38/65/39/61 Arvin 34/65/35/61 Taft 39/65/40/62
Lamont 35/64/37/61 Pixley 31/65/35/62 Tulare 30/63/33/61
Woodlake 30/65/34/61 Hanford 32/64/35/63 Orosi 30/64/34/62

 

Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next seven to ten days.

 

Frost Discussion: Last night was a chilly one with a couple of locations dipping down to 27 after issuing this morning’s report with many locations in the 29 to 32 degree range north of Kern County. Kern County will be the more difficult challenge tonight because of possible in and out cloud cover from that low southwest of Santa Barbara.  Currently it appears the remainder of the valley will be relatively clear.

 

The coldest unprotected river bottom and like locations tonight will dip down to 27 to 29 degrees with many other locations in the lower 30s.  Hillsides will be slightly above freezing.

 

For Thursday morning, coldest locations may dip down to 29 to 31 with most other locations in the low to mid 30s.  The average will be mid to upper 30s Friday through Sunday with coldest locations possibly down into the lower 30s.  models are still trending towards a cold week next week, but for now it doesn’t appear to be overly critical.  Upper 20s to lower 30s may be widespread by Wednesday of next week with the potential for the remainder of the week, including the weekend.  It appears the blocking ridge of high pressure will shift further again off shore with a north to south flow in the upper atmosphere along the far eastern side of the high.

 

The two week model going out to the 27th also points to relatively cold temperatures for this time of  year with the chance of rain remaining quite low.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

30

Porterville

30

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

31

Strathmore

29

McFarland

29

Ducor

31

Tea Pot Dome

30

Lindsay

29

Exeter

28

Famoso

31

Madera

30

Belridge

30

Delano

32

North Bakersfield

32

Orosi

29

Orange Cove

30

Lindcove

29

Lindcove Hillside

34

Sanger River Bottom

27

Root Creek

28

Venice Hill

30

Rosedale

32

Jasmine

30

Arvin

33

Lamont

33

Plainview

30

Mettler

AF

Edison

AF

Maricopa

30

Holland Creek

33

Tivy Valley

30

Kite Road South

34

Kite Road North

31

 

Next Report: Wednesday morning, February 14