February 15, 2018
Summary: There is a distinct difference in pressure between northern and southern California due to a literally invisible trough that moved through before dawn this morning. Winds are generally light in the central, southern, and eastern sectors of the valley but are averaging between 15 and 20 MPH on the western side, especially along the Interstate 5 corridor. Dew points are a bit higher this afternoon over much of the valley with the exception of the far west side where dew points have fallen below 30 degrees. Most dew points elsewhere are in the mid to upper 30s at this hour. Air temperatures are averaging 4 to 6 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago as a slightly colder air mass invades the region. With clear skies tonight, no doubt there will be areas of frost. This is discussed below.
The eastern Pacific high will briefly bulge inland Friday through Saturday night, allowing for a brief warming trend. Some of the warmer locations on Saturday may eclipse the 70 degree mark. On Sunday, a low pressure system from western Canada will dive southward into the Pacific Northwest and northern California then into central California Sunday night and Monday. Models seem to be pointing to two possible solutions. The first is the bulk of the energy will move into the Great Basin Monday. Solution two is the main low will move right into California Sunday night and Monday. Either of these solutions would result in a chance of light showers over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the Kern County mountains with a very slight chance of a few light showers over the valley floor. In either case, Monday through Wednesday will be much colder as a pool of modified Arctic air settles in to central California. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings could be quite chilly.
Slow moderation will occur later next week, but even so temperatures will remain below average. There is some good news as far as the chance of rain goes for later next week and the following weekend. There is a possibility of a big low developing off the central coast, possibly swinging some showers into the central valley about Friday. one model has this storm tapping the subtropics, but with the moisture moving in through Baja and southern California.
The two week model going out through the first of March is indicating a possibility of above average precipitation with below average temperatures continuing.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday. Variable cloudiness at times Sunday night through Tuesday. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 31/66/34/69 | Reedley 32/67/34/70 | Dinuba 30/65/33/69 | |
| Porterville 31/67/34/71 | Lindsay 30/67/33/71 | Delano 32/66/35/71 | |
| Bakersfield 37/67/39/71 | Arvin 34/68/36/71 | Taft 40/68/42/70 | |
| Lamont 34/67/36/71 | Pixley 31/66/35/70 | Tulare 30/66/34/69 | |
| Woodlake 30/66/33/70 | Hanford 32/66/34/70 | Orosi 30/65/33/68 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH tonight with periods of near calm conditions, especially after midnight. The exception will be winds out of the north to northwest at 10 to 15 MPH along the far west side through the evening hours, diminishing after midnight. Winds Friday through Sunday morning will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. From late Sunday afternoon through Monday, winds will be out of the northwest at 15 to 25 MPH with stronger gusts along the west side and 10 to 15 MPH elsewhere.
Rain: There will be a slight chance of isolated light showers Sunday night and Monday as a cold upper level low moves overhead. There’s a better chance that most locations will remain dry. Expect dry weather Monday night through Thursday or next week. After Thursday, models are very inconsistent. Some suggest a big low will develop off the central coast, possibly rotating some showers inland. We’ll put that in the low chance category for now. The two week model is now indicating an increasing chance of rain exists for late February or early March. We’ll see if this pans out.
Frost Discussion: Temperatures this afternoon are generally 4 to 6 degrees cooler than yesterday at this time. Fortunately, dew points are not excessively low and range in the mid to upper 30s. we will observe clear skies tonight which will allow good radiational cooling to occur. Drier air has moved down the west side of the valley but so far has not invaded the central and eastern sections. Coldest locations tonight could dip down to 27 to 29 degrees in riverbottom and like locations with flat terrain ranging from 29 to 34. It will be just slightly warmer in Kern County but some locations should remain at least slight above freezing there. Two or three degrees of moderation should occur for Saturday morning as high pressure builds overhead with most locations being above freezing Sunday morning with the possibility of low spots coming in in the lower 30s. a cold upper low will be moving overhead Monday with hopefully enough cloud cover for above freezing conditions, though most locations should fall at least into the mid to upper 30s. Tuesday and Wednesday will be the main challenge with a north/northeast flow both at the surface and aloft, coldest locations could dip down to 27 to 29 degrees each day with most locations between 29 and 32. Slow moderation will occur after Wednesday but even so, colder locations, assuming it’s relatively clear, could very well dip down into the lower 30s.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
29 |
McFarland
30 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
30 |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
33 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
32 |
Maricopa
31 |
Holland Creek
34 |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
30 |
Next Report: Friday morning/February 16