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Forecast

February 16, 2018/report

February 16, 2018

Summary: It was again cold this morning with a few locations, especially in Madera and Fresno Counties, chilling into the upper 20s.  some  moderation will occur tonight and again Saturday night as high pressure off shore temporarily moves in.  some of the warmer locations Saturday may eclipse the 70 degree mark.

 

A deep trough of very cold low pressure will dive southward into California Sunday.  Models continue to suggest two distinct paths for this storm.  Some show most of the energy moving into the Great Basin with a dry cold front moving through central California Sunday night.  Other models show the low swinging right through California which would result in a chance of light showers over the mountains and even a slight chance of isolated showers or sprinkles over the valley floor.

 

I’m getting more concerned about overnight low temperatures for Tuesday through Thursday of next week.  The eastern Pacific high will build a ridge far to the north into southern Alaska.  This would create a north to south flow right into California which may set up a freeze situation, especially Tuesday and Wednesday but possibly even Thursday.  More in the frost discussion.

 

On Wednesday, a low will take shape off the central California coast, but it appears it will be too far to the west to have much of an impact on our weather.  Once we get into Friday through the early part of next week, it appears more waves of low pressure will move from generally north to south into California.  For now it does not look like any of these systems will have the potential for precipitation.  There is hope for rain, though, around the 25 through the 26 of this month.  Models show a potentially strong low moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and at least into northern California and possibly further south.  So, we’ll keep our fingers crossed.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday night.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday.  Variable cloudiness Sunday night through Monday night with an isolated chance of light showers.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Friday with well below average temperatures.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 67/31/70/35/67` Reedley 68/32/70/36/67 Dinuba 66/30/69/34/66
Porterville 68/32/71/35/68 Lindsay 67/31/71/35/68 Delano 68/33/71/36/68
Bakersfield 68/39/71/41/69 Arvin 69/35/71/39/69 Taft 67/41/71/43/69
Lamont 68/34/71/36/69 Pixley 66/32/70/38/68 Tulare 67/32/70/36/66
Woodlake 68/32/71/35/67 Hanford 67/33/71/37/67 Orosi 68/31/70/37/67

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Slight chance of showers

34/55

Tuesday

Mostly clear

26/55

Wednesday

Mostly clear

27/59

Thursday

Mostly clear

31/61

Friday

Mostly clear

33/64

 

Two Week Outlook:  February 18 through February 24:  This model shows a considerable amount of cold air diving into the Pacific Northwest then into the interior west with some of this air spilling into California.  This would favor at least marginally below average temperatures, but with a blocking ridge off shore precipitation continues to be doubtful.

 

February:  This model doesn’t really grasp at any particular pattern through the month.  In fact, central California, if you believe this model, should have temperatures close to seasonal values with near average precipitation, as well.

 

February, March, April:  This model goes all the way through April and it is calling for a ridge of upper level high pressure off the southern California coast to be the most dominant, but not the only, feature during the spring months.  If this model has any credence at all, temperatures should be marginally above average with below average precipitation.

 

Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH through Saturday night with periods of near calm conditions.  By late Sunday, winds will be out of the northwest at 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to near 40 MPH possible along the west side, continuing at times Sunday night and Monday.

 

Rain: I want to keep a slight chance of a few light showers in the forecast for Sunday night and Monday.  A fast moving cold front will move through Sunday night.  Most models point to dry weather with a chance of light showers over the Sierra and the Kern County mountains.  But, even though this system is moisture starved, it does have strong dynamics which could squeeze a few raindrops out of those clouds.  For now, I put the chance of rain for Sunday night and Monday at around 20% or so.  From Tuesday and beyond, conditions appear dry through the next weekend and into the following week.  Models are still suggesting a possible change around the twenty fifth and twenty sixth of this month in the form of a strong low moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and possibly bringing rain.  We’ll keep an eye on this as this is the first suggestion of a possible pattern change which could be more kind to us.

 

Frost:  It was a chilly one last night with several locations in Fresno and Madera Counties and even a few in Tulare County that dipped into the upper 20s with widespread low to mid 30s elsewhere.  Tonight should be two to three degrees warmer as the off shore high begins to temporarily move over California.

 

Most locations Sunday morning will be above freezing with possibly river bottom type locations approaching the lower 30s.  On Sunday night and Monday, a pattern will set up that is quite worrisome.  A cold low from western Canada will drive southward either into the Great Basin or into California, depending on the model of choice.  Some of these models do not look good.  For example, one model spits out an overnight low for Porterville on Tuesday morning at 25 degrees and 28 degrees for Wednesday morning.  This, of course, would mean even colder temperatures in the frost pockets.  If this occurs, we will have a damaging hard freeze.  What concerns me most is there is a definite model trend which keeps lowering these temperatures from model run to model run.  There is still quite a bit of time between now and Tuesday morning and this event could turn out to be milder, but for now my suggestion would be to prepare for potentially very cold nights Tuesday and Wednesday and, to a lesser extent, Thursday.

Towards next weekend, more dry waves of low pressure will move out of western Canada and into California, maintaining below average temperatures, but milder than the Tuesday/Wednesday event.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

32

Porterville

32

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

32

Strathmore

30

McFarland

31

Ducor

33

Tea Pot Dome

32

Lindsay

31

Exeter

30

Famoso

33

Madera

31

Belridge

31

Delano

33

North Bakersfield

AF

Orosi

30

Orange Cove

31

Lindcove

30

Lindcove Hillside

AF

Sanger River Bottom

28

Root creek

30

Venice Hill

32`

Rosedale

AF

Jasmine

32

Arvin

AF

Lamont

AF

Plainview

31

Mettler

AF

Edison

AF

Maricopa

32

Holland Creek

AF

Tivy Valley

AF

Kite Road South

AF

Kite Road North

AF

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern, Low to mid 30s.

Humidity: Visalia, 25%/90%  Bakersfield, 25%/80%

Actual Humidity February 14, 2018: Delano, 72%/29%.  Porterville, 84%/27%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 80%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 90%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days February 14, 2018: Stratford .NA, Parlier .61, Blackwell .71 Lindcove .58, Arvin .75, Orange Cove .69, Porterville .62, Delano .68., Madera Two NA.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford NA, Parlier 56, Blackwell 58, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 56, Delano 54, Madera Two 54

7.2

Record Temperatures: 79/24. Average Temperatures: 62/39

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1415, -555 Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for February so far, 55.9 +7.0

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since October 1, 2017  Fresno: 1.64 season. or -5.03.  Month to Date: .00

Since October 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  1.10, or -2.63,  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 771, Parlier, 795, Arvin, 696, Shafter, 853, Stratford, 792, Madera two, 1290, Lindcove, 920, Porterville, 1244.  Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:46 am  Sunset: 5:40 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:52

 

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  65 /  36 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  64 /  42 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  66 /  39 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  66 /  38 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  63 /  40 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  64 /  36 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1555 /  64 /  40 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  64 /  34 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1552 /  59 /  44 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  63 /  41 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                                                       Season     %        Last y.   %           Ave.       Annual Ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    3.99    45   15.53   175     8.86    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    3.55    44   12.52   157     7.99    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    2.29    31   12.21   167     7.30    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    1.55    22   11.74   163     7.20    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    1.64    24   11.11   165     6.74    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    1.78    30    7.76   129     6.02    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    1.10    29    6.59   174     3.78     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.20     6    6.65   214     3.11     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    2.51    32   11.31   144     7.84    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    2.30    30   12.84   166     7.74    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    2.02    24   12.88   154     8.36    13.95

 

Next Report: Friday, February 16/pm