February 15, 2018
Summary: You couldn’t tell, but a weak wave of low pressure moving from north to south went through during the early morning hours. Satellite imagery indicates that all of central California is enjoying clear skies this morning. It will be somewhat cooler today as the air aloft chills a bit. I noted the freezing level taken last night over Oakland was down to 6,400 feet and will no doubt drop further today.
There are some gusty winds along the far west side of the valley with a few locations along the Interstate 5 corridor registering gusts between 15 and 25 MPH. excessive wind conditions will not prevail today for the last day of the Ag Expo except along the west side where gusts to 20 to 25 MPH could occur.
Tonight has the potential of being a bit colder as dew points drop into the upper 20s to the mid 30s. that, combined with a slightly colder air mass, could result in readings in the upper 20s to the lower 30s. More on this below.
The eastern Pacific high will nudge inland tonight through Saturday, resulting in a brief warming trend for the weekend. A cold low will drop from north to south Sunday night and Monday and into California. Most model information shows dry weather continuing as, per usual, this will be a moisture starved system. It could generate some light showers over the Sierras and the Kern County mountains with just a small chance over the valley floor.
On paper, a semi freeze pattern will develop Tuesday through Thursday as a southeast to northwest oriented high ridges northeastward into Canada then wraps around a cold low to our east. This is an ideal pattern for pumping modified Arctic air into the western United States, so the Tuesday through Thursday time frame will have to be carefully watched. Models will be studied to see if there is actually any danger.
Medium range models continue to show generally dry weather through the end of the month, although there is some indication of a change as we head towards the first of March. For now, there’s just not enough to go on to be certain.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday with a slight chance of showers, mainly in the mountains. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 61/30/64/32/67 | Reedley 61/31/63/33/66 | Dinuba 60/30/63/32/68 | |
| Porterville 62/31/64/32/68 | Lindsay 62/30/64/32/68 | Delano 61/32/65/33/69 | |
| Bakersfield 62/36/64/38/69 | Arvin 61/34/64/36/69 | Taft 61/38/64/40/69 | |
| Lamont 61/33/64/36/70 | Pixley 62/31/64/34/68 | Tulare 61/30/63/33/67 | |
| Woodlake 62/31/64/34/67 | Hanford 62/31/64/34/68 | Orosi 61/30/64/33/67 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 37/69 |
Monday
Slight chance of showers 37/58 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 29/57 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 30/60 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 30/61 |
Two Week Outlook: February 18 through February 24: This model shows a considerable amount of cold air diving into the Pacific Northwest then into the interior west with some of this air spilling into California. This would favor at least marginally below average temperatures, but with a blocking ridge off shore precipitation continues to be doubtful.
February: This model doesn’t really grasp at any particular pattern through the month. In fact, central California, if you believe this model, should have temperatures close to seasonal values with near average precipitation, as well.
February, March, April: This model goes all the way through April and it is calling for a ridge of upper level high pressure off the southern California coast to be the most dominant, but not the only, feature during the spring months. If this model has any credence at all, temperatures should be marginally above average with below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest later today at 5 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH along the west side. Winds tonight through Saturday night will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds by later Sunday afternoon will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH along the west side.
Rain: By far, the vast majority of models this morning do not show a hope for precipitation any time soon. However, as a cold and moisture starved low dives overhead Sunday night and Monday, light showers will be possible over the mountains with a very slight chance over the valley floor. I would put the chance of measurable rain Monday at any given location at about 20% or so. From Tuesday and beyond, we can expect a continuation of dry weather. Medium range models are stirring a bit as far as a pattern change for the end of the month, but there’s just not enough to go on at the present to add any chance of precipitation to the forecast.
Frost: An invisible wave of low pressure moving from north to south moved through the valley during the early morning hours. Locally gusty northwest winds occurred along the west side with light northwest winds from Tulare County northward. Some model projections indicate dew points will fall into the mid 20s to the lower 30s this afternoon. The combination of a marginally colder air mass and a drier air mass on the valley floor should allow colder locations tonight to dip down to 27 to 29 or so with most other locations from 29 to 32. Some locations in Kern County will remain above freezing. Mixing will be the main forecast challenge for tonight as a rather robust north/northwest flow aloft is now in place. Saturday morning will be a tad milder, generally in the low to mid 30s, with coldest locations near 30. Sunday morning, with a little bit of luck, will see all locations above freezing due to possible increased cloud cover and wind conditions. There should be enough wind and clouds Monday to keep temperatures in the 30s, however where winds die off and clouds are sparse, lower 30s will be possible. It’s a Tuesday through Thursday time frame which is of most concern. A semi freeze pattern shows up on paper with a southwest to a northeast oriented upper high ridging into the Gulf of Alaska and possibly the northwest Yukon Territory while a big trough of low pressure covers the intermountain west. This pattern does an efficient job of moving modified Arctic air into the west, including California. For now, I’ll just suggest upper 20s to lower 30s Tuesday through Thursday, but this pattern will have to be studied closely as there is the possibility of readings coming in colder or even milder, depending on the players and where they decide to set up shop.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
30 |
McFarland
30 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
31 |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
33 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
30 |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Road South
AF |
Kite Road North
31 |
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid 20s to the lower 30s. Kern, Mid 20s to the lower 30s.
Humidity: Visalia, 30%/90% Bakersfield, 30%/80%
Actual Humidity February 13, 2018: Delano, 87%/34%. Porterville, 96%/33%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days February 13, 2018: Stratford .NA, Parlier .60, Blackwell .72 Lindcove .58, Arvin .75, Orange Cove .69, Porterville .61, Delano .68., Madera Two NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford NA, Parlier 56, Blackwell 57, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 56, Delano 54, Madera Two 54
7.2
Record Temperatures: 79/25. Average Temperatures: 61/38
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1407, -548 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for February so far, 55.8 +7.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.64 season. or -4.96. Month to Date: .00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.10, or -2.59, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 761, Parlier, 786, Arvin, 696, Shafter, 851, Stratford, 788, Madera two, 1280, Lindcove, 911, Porterville, 1233. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:47 am Sunset: 5:38 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:49
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 69 / 39 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 69 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 69 / 45 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 70 / 43 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 67 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 66 / 40 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1553 / 66 / 43 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 68 / 39 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1555 / 64 / 45 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 66 / 40 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.99 45 15.53 177 8.77 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.55 45 12.52 158 7.91 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.29 32 12.21 169 7.22 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.55 22 11.74 165 7.12 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.64 25 11.11 167 6.67 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.78 30 7.76 130 5.95 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 29 6.59 177 3.73 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 7 6.65 217 3.07 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 2.51 32 11.31 146 7.76 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.30 30 12.84 168 7.65 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.02 24 12.88 156 8.25 13.95
Next Report: Thursday, February 15/pm