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Forecast

February 16, 2018/pm report

February 16, 2018

Summary:  Some moderation is occurring in the upper atmosphere this afternoon.  The freezing level has nudged up to 10,000 feet as opposed to 6,900 feet yesterday.  That massive eastern Pacific high has moved a bit further east, putting California under its umbrella.  Saturday will be the warmest day we’ll potentially see for quit a while.  Warmer locations could possibly rise into the lower 70s.  that, however, will be very short lived as a strong low both at the surface and aloft moves rapidly southward into central California Sunday night.

 

This will be an unusually cold system for this time of year and could spread light snow showers over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains.  However, it still appears it won’t have enough moisture to produce precipitation over the valley floor.  Even this late, models are still uncertain of the exact path.  One model shows most of the energy shifting into the Great Basin while another brings the low right down the spine of the Sierra Nevada.  At any rate, a cold front will move through Sunday night accompanied by gusty northwesterly winds and much colder air.

 

That cold air will be in place Tuesday and may create a damaging freeze situation.  All of this is discussed below.

 

From Wednesday through Sunday of next week, there will be ripples of cold waves of low pressure moving from north to south into California.  None of these waves will be accompanied by precipitation as they’ll be taking generally overland trajectories.  The bottom line is, we’ll see below average temperatures for quite some time with very little chance of rain.  Even the model encompassing late February and early March is not quite as encourating this afternoon as it had been.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear through Sunday.  Variable cloudiness, breezy and  much cooler Sunday night and Monday.  Mostly clear Tuesday through Friday with periods of  high clouds at times.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 31/69/35/66 Reedley 32/71/35/66 Dinuba 31/70/34/67
Porterville 32/71/35/68 Lindsay 31/70/35/67 Delano 33/70/36/68
Bakersfield 39/72/42/69 Arvin 36/72/39/69 Taft 45/71/46/68
Lamont 35/71/39/69 Pixley 32/69/36/68 Tulare 31/69/36/66
Woodlake 32/70/36/67 Hanford 33/71/37/67 Orosi 31/70/35/66

 

Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH through Saturday night.  By Sunday afternoon, winds will increase to 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to near 40 MPH possible along the west side through Monday.  Winds will rapidly decrease Monday night with generally light winds Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

Rain: I have taken the chance of light showers out of the forecast for Sunday night and Monday.  On paper, anyway, this system is just too moisture starved to result in any showers with the exception of the Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains, and even there the chance if fairly low.  Dry weather will prevail Monday night and for the remainder of the week.  It’s pretty sad, but I still don’t see any chance of precipitation until about the end of the month, and even there models are in conflict on a particular weather pattern.

 

Frost Discussion: Temperatures tonight should moderate by about 2 to 3 degrees at most locations.  This still puts frost pockets in the 29 to 32 degree range.  Most locations, however, will be in the mid to upper 30s with lower 30s possible in some flat terrain.  The pattern for early next week continues to disturb me as a strong but moisture starved low pressure system moves through Sunday night and early Monday.  The cold front will be marked by gusty northwesterly winds Sunday night and occasionally through Monday which should efficiently lower dew points.  Freezing levels will plummet by early Monday.  Any showers that do occur over the mountains will be in the form of snow down to about 2,000 feet or so.  Models for Tuesday morning are still a bit frightening.  The model that showed Porterville at 25 this morning is up to 26 this afternoon with only slight moderation for Wednesday but more so Thursday.  For now, for Tuesday morning I’m going to call for readings possibly in the 23 to 26 degree range in river bottom and like locations and 26 to 30 elsewhere.  Beyond Wednesday, the forecast remains dry as a series of waves of cold low pressure moves from north to south overhead from time to time.  Even though it will not be as cold as Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures will still remain below average.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

31

Porterville

32

Ivanhoe

32

Woodlake

31

Strathmore

30

McFarland

31

Ducor

33

Tea Pot Dome

32

Lindsay

31

Exeter

30

Famoso

AF

Madera

30

Belridge

31

Delano

33

North Bakersfield

AF

Orosi

31

Orange Cove

31

Lindcove

30

Lindcove Hillside

AF

Sanger River Bottom

28

Root Creek

30

Venice Hill

31

Rosedale

AF

Jasmine

32

Arvin

AF

Lamont

AF

Plainview

31

Mettler

AF

Edison

AF

Maricopa

AF

Holland Creek

AF

Tivy Valley

AF

Kite Road South

AF

Kite Road North

AF

 

Next Report: Saturday morning, February 17