February 17, 2018
Summary: This will be the last day of relatively mild afternoons as we continue to be on the far eastern flank of a strong upper high which covers the bulk of the eastern Pacific Ocean. The high will begin to move westward later today and tonight, farther out to sea, and will build a strong ridge way up into Alaska. This will set the stage for a possible dangerous freeze Tuesday through Thursday mornings. You will begin to notice significant changes as early as tomorrow as winds pick up out of the northwest with a cold front moving through late tomorrow or tomorrow night. Models all along have portrayed this system as a dry one with the exception of some possible light snow showers over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. For now, it doesn’t look like there will be enough moisture to produce precipitation over the valley floor.
What will follow will be what could be the coldest air mass of the season. We should be fine Monday morning as clouds and wind conditions keep temperatures up, but Tuesday through Thursday will see the combination of low dew points along with a cold air mass, sending temperatures into the mid to upper 20s with the coldest locations possibly in the low 20s. more in the frost discussion below.
The remainder of next week will be governed by a generally north to northwest flow with weak waves of low pressure originating in western Canada. This will maintain below average temperatures through next weekend.
Models continue to suggest the possibility of rain about the 26 and 27 of the month and the two week model this morning is calling for a better than even chance of rain once we get into early March.
Forecast: Mostly clear and mild today. Mostly clear tonight through Sunday morning. Becoming partly cloudy and windy Sunday afternoon. Variable cloudiness Sunday night and Monday, becoming much colder. Mostly clear and cold Tuesday and on through Saturday of next week.
Short Term:
| Madera 70/34/64/36/52 | Reedley 70/33/64/35/53 | Dinuba 70/32/63/34/52 | |
| Porterville 71/34/65/35/53 | Lindsay 71/33/65/35/52` | Delano 72/35/66/35/54 | |
| Bakersfield 72/52/66/37/53 | Arvin 72/37/66/36/52 | Taft 71/43/66/39/53 | |
| Lamont 70/38/66/38/53 | Pixley 70/35/66/38/52 | Tulare 69/32/64/34/53 | |
| Woodlake 71/33/65/35/52 | Hanford 71/36/65/35/54 | Orosi 70/33/64/36/53 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 26/53 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 26/59 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 28/60 |
Friday
Mostly clear 30/63 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 32/65 |
Two Week Outlook: February 20 through February 27 This model indicates a possibly broad area of low pressure will be over and along the west coast. There is a chance that Pacific storms may move into California from the Gulf of Alaska. Temperatures should range somewhat below seasonal norms.
February: This model doesn’t really grasp at any particular pattern through the month. In fact, central California, if you believe this model, should have temperatures close to seasonal values with near average precipitation, as well.
February, March, April: This model goes all the way through April and it is calling for a ridge of upper level high pressure off the southern California coast to be the most dominant, but not the only, feature during the spring months. If this model has any credence at all, temperatures should be marginally above average with below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or below 10 MPH through tonight. Winds Sunday, especially during the afternoon, will be out of the northwest at 15 to 25 MPH at times with gusts to near 40 MPH possible along the west side. Winds Sunday night and Monday will continue out of the northwest at 15 to 25 MPH with stronger gusts, diminishing Monday evening and becoming generally light later Monday night and Tuesday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight, but possibly near 32 in low lying spots. For Monday morning, there should be enough cloud cover and wind conditions to keep temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.
Now we get to Tuesday morning. What we have is a significant freeze pattern developing as a strong off shore ridge builds northward clear into Alaska. This creates a north to south flow through western Canada and into California. The first phase of this will actually begin tomorrow as a moisture starved but strong low moves through. A cold front will move down the valley late Sunday or Sunday night, issuing in modified Arctic air. By the time we get to Tuesday morning, skies should be relatively clear. The possible exception may be some upslope clouds in Kern County, but with this dry of an air mass, even that appears doubtful.
Coldest locations Tuesday morning may get dangerously cold, possibly down to 22 to 24 in river bottom and like locations and generally from 25 to 29 elsewhere.
Wednesday and Thursday will also be no picnic as I do anticipate mid to upper 20s, especially Wednesday.
The air mass will finally begin to modify by Friday as readings should warm into the upper 20s to the mid 30s. I believe that will be the case over the weekend, as well, as dry air continues to move into the region in the form of waves of upper level low pressure from western Canada.
Temperatures next week will remain below average, but at this point I don’t see anything critical on the medium range horizon, so we’ll just concentrate on the Tuesday through Thursday time frame and pray this comes in a bit milder than expected. That is possible, but the model information I’m looking at suggests a dangerous freeze.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
AF |
Porterville
AF |
Ivanhoe
AF |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
AF |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
AF |
Tea Pot Dome
AF |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
AF |
Madera
AF |
| Belridge
AF |
Delano
AF |
North Bakersfield
AF |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
AF |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
32 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
AF |
Jasmine
AF |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
AF |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
AF |
| Kite Road South
AF |
Kite Road North
AF |
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern, Low to mid 30s.
Humidity: Visalia, 25%/90% Bakersfield, 25%/80%
Actual Humidity February 15, 2018: Delano, 81%/39%. Porterville, 88%/34%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 80%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 90%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days February 15, 2018: Stratford .76, Parlier .61, Blackwell .72 Lindcove .58, Arvin .75, Orange Cove .69, Porterville .62, Delano .67., Madera Two NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 55, Blackwell 57, Lindcove, 57, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 55, Delano 54, Madera Two 54
7.2
Record Temperatures: 80/27. Average Temperatures: 62/39
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1457, -558 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for February so far, 55.7 +6.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.64 season. or -5.10. Month to Date: .00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.10, or -2.68, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 782, Parlier, 806, Arvin, 705, Shafter, 863, Stratford, 804, Madera two, 1303, Lindcove, 932, Porterville, 1256. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:45 am Sunset: 5:41 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:54
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 65 / 36 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 64 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 66 / 39 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 66 / 38 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 63 / 40 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 64 / 36 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 64 / 40 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 64 / 34 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1552 / 59 / 44 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 63 / 41 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.99 45 15.53 175 8.86 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.55 44 12.52 157 7.99 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.29 31 12.21 167 7.30 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.55 22 11.74 163 7.20 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.64 24 11.11 165 6.74 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.78 30 7.76 129 6.02 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 29 6.59 174 3.78 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 6 6.65 214 3.11 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 2.51 32 11.31 144 7.84 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.30 30 12.84 166 7.74 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.02 24 12.88 154 8.36 13.95
Next Report: Saturday, February 17/pm