Summary: This is the night we’ve been pointing to for the past week or so. Strong upper level high pressure covers the off shore waters and ridges northward into Alaska while an Arctic trough of low pressure covers the interior western United States. We remain sandwiched between these two features. The combination of features has created a north to south flow aloft, pumping in unusually cold air. There have been several reports of snow over portions of the Coast Range with light snow showers over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. A few isolated showers have even occurred over the valley floor, mainly in Kern County.
The potential for a dangerous freeze is certainly there for tonight and again Tuesday night. I won’t get into the details here, but will in the frost discussion below.
The north/south trajectory of the upper winds will continue from the Yukon Territory then southward into California through Friday. The next embedded low pressure system in this flow will arrive Thursday night and Friday with at least a chance of light showers and snow again well down into the foothills.
Low temperatures Thursday night and Friday will hopefully be above freezing due to cloud cover from this system. Even Saturday, though, appears chilly now with lows possibly down into the upper 20s and lower 30s. For now it looks like the awaited warmed up will begin Sunday and last well into next week as the flow aloft becomes west/northwest, bringing in milder air.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy this evening with a slight chance of isolated showers near the foothills. Becoming mostly clear and cold tonight through Thursday night. Increasing cloudiness late Thursday leading to a chance of light showers Thursday night and Friday. Partly cloudy Friday night and Saturday morning. Becoming mostly clear Saturday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 25/55/26/58 | Reedley 26/54/27/57 | Dinuba 24/54/26/57 | |
| Porterville 26/55/27/58 | Lindsay 24/54/26/58 | Delano 27/54/28/58 | |
| Bakersfield 30/55/32/58 | Arvin 27/54/29/58 | Taft 29/55/33/57 | |
| Lamont 27/56/29/59 | Pixley 25/54/26/57 | Tulare 24/54/26/58 | |
| Woodlake 26/54/27/57 | Hanford 25/54/26/57 | Orosi 25/54/26/57 | |
Winds: Winds this evening will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, decreasing to 5 to 10 MPH during the early morning hours with possible near calm conditions. Winds Tuesday through Thursday will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: As of the time of this writing, there were isolated showers in Kern County, mainly over the southwest corner of the valley. Light snow showers were also falling over the mountains surrounding the valley. This activity will come to an end after sunset with dry weather returning tonight through Thursday. The next Arctic low pressure system will dive southward into central California Thursday night and Friday. For now, it looks like this system will be partially over water which would increase somewhat the chance of light showers Thursday night and Friday with snow again down to very low elevations. Dry weather will return Friday night and continue through at least the middle of next week.
Frost Discussion: Dew points, as of the time of this writing, are down into the mid 20s with air temperatures generally in the low 50s. there is a considerable amount of wind blowing down the valley which will have a drying affect on the atmosphere, setting the stage for very strong radiational cooling. Freezing levels will be as low as 2,500 feet. That’s a reminder of how cold the air aloft is.
Where it is somewhat cloudy now they will see clear skies later this evening. It’s possible that upslope clouds could cling to the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains, but with the air mass continuing to become more and more dry, that may be a stretch.
There’s one possible saving grace tonight and that will be wind conditions. I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least a light breeze blowing down the west side of the valley and it’s possible mixing could take place to help out elsewhere. That is not, however, in my official forecast as far as numbers go tonight.
One model places Porterville at 28, another at 24, with others between 25 and 28. That would put river bottom and other low type spots down into the 22 to 24 degree range with most locations ranging from 25 to 29.
The inversion tonight will sadly be weak with temperatures at 34 feet probably no more than 2 to 4 degrees warmer. Durations under 28 degrees in unprotected river bottom and like locations could be about 8 hours and won’t really warm to above freezing until after 8:30 Tuesday morning.
Looking ahead to Wednesday morning, widespread mid to upper 20s are again likely with perhaps a degree or two of warming, if we’re lucky. Thursday morning, assuming clouds do not arrive in time, should range between about 27 to 32. With a little luck, we’ll manage to be above freezing Friday morning as clouds and the possibility of light showers move through.
The air mass behind the Friday storm is also cold, so it’s possible we could get back down into the upper 20s to the lower 30s Saturday morning. Finally, on Sunday morning the winds aloft will be out of the west/northwest, pumping in milder air aloft. Temperatures recover more quickly now that we’re into the latter part of February, so hopefully above freezing conditions will be the norm next week.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
25 |
Porterville
26 |
Ivanhoe
25 |
Woodlake
26 |
| Strathmore
24 |
McFarland
25 |
Ducor
26 |
Tea Pot Dome
26 |
| Lindsay
24 |
Exeter
24 |
Famoso
26 |
Madera
25 |
| Belridge
27 |
Delano
27 |
North Bakersfield
27 |
Orosi
25 |
| Orange Cove
25 |
Lindcove
24 |
Lindcove Hillside
30 |
Sanger River Bottom
22 |
| Root creek
23 |
Venice Hill
25 |
Rosedale
26 |
Jasmine
25 |
| Arvin
27 |
Lamont
27 |
Plainview
25 |
Mettler
29 |
| Edison
27 |
Maricopa
29 |
Holland Creek
29 |
Tivy Valley
26 |
| Kite Road South
28 |
Kite Road North
25 |
Next Report: Approximately 10:00pm