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Forecast

February 21, 2018/pm report

February 21, 2018

Summary:  The first piece of weather information that really stuck out in preparing this report was dew points.  They are generally in the upper teens to the lower twenties.  We’ll discuss this in the frost discussion.  The freezing level over Vandenberg taken earlier this morning was 4,400 feet and 3,500 feet up at Oakland.  Looking to our north, the next semi Arctic low pressure system is centered in southwest British Columbia and is racing due south.  There are some high clouds well ahead of this system and they’re entering northern California.  However, these clouds are looking pretty thin.  Even though they could arrive late tonight, they just may dissipate.

 

The low itself will race through here Thursday night and early Friday.  The chance of light showers seems to be pretty minimal over the valley floor, but the mountain areas should see some light snow showers with the snow level down to 1,000 to 2,000 feet.

 

The basic pattern which has caused this disastrous freeze is still in place.  The big high just off shore with a ridge which has built far to the north and a big semi Arctic trough of low pressure just to the east of the Sierra Nevada have within this flow weak waves of upper level low pressure.  These waves continue to move rapidly down the west coast.  The Thursday night system will move quickly into southern California by midday Friday.  The pool of air associated with this storm is again very cold and will leave a very cold air mass in its wake for Saturday and, to a lesser extent, Sunday.

 

By Sunday, at least daytime temperatures will begin to recover, though they’ll still be below average.  Clouds should increase ahead of the next low pressure system due in Monday which will lead to a chance of showers Tuesday.  The flow behind this system, on paper anyway, is becoming more north to south rather than northwest to southeast.  This could drop another pool of cold air into California, in theory causing temperatures to fall to below freezing Wednesday and Thursday of next week.  Some models, thankfully, are pointing to milder conditions.  Crossing my fingers that the latter prevails.

 

Models are still suggesting a much stronger low will arrive about the first of March, potentially result ing in a more significant precipitation event.  Crossing my fingers about this, too.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies tonight and cold.  Increasing cloudiness later Thursday with at least a small chance of scattered light showers Thursday night and Friday morning.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Sunday night.  Increasing cloudiness by Monday afternoon and night with a chance of showers late Monday night and Tuesday.  A slight chance of showers Tuesday night.  Becoming partly cloudy Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 25/58/28/55 Reedley 25/59/29/53 Dinuba 24/57/28/53
Porterville 26/59/30/54 Lindsay 25/58/30/53 Delano 26/58/31/54
Bakersfield 30/59/35/52 Arvin 27/59/31/53 Taft 33/60/36/54
Lamont 27/59/32/53 Pixley 25/58/29/53 Tulare 24/57/29/53
Woodlake 26/58/30/52 Hanford 27/58/32/53 Orosi 25/58/31/53

 

Winds: Winds tonight will be less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.  Later Thursday, winds will increase out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH, mainly along the west side.  Winds Thursday night will continue out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH, diminishing after midnight.  Winds Friday will be out of the northwest at 5 to 20 MPH with light winds returning Saturday and Sunday.

 

Rain: Currently, there is a low pressure system centered in southwest British Columbia which will race southward, entering central California Thursday night and early Friday.  Like its predecessors, this system is moisture starved with only a slight risk of a few light showers over the valley floor Thursday night and Friday morning.  The mountain areas ringing the valley will have a greater potential for snow showers with snow levels down to 1,000 to 2,000 feet.  Dry weather will return by Friday afternoon and continue through Monday.  The next low will drop southward into central California Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Models this afternoon do not look impressive, but this system on paper does seem to have enough dynamics for a slightly better chance of light showers.  Towards next weekend and into the first week of March, models show the pattern changing to theoretically allow stronger storms to move in.  they would be of a cold variety, germinating in the Gulf of Alaska.

 

Frost Discussion: Dew points, as of 1:00pm, are extremely low.  This does not bode well for tonight’s forecast.  The dew point at Bakersfield was 18, Porterville 19, Visalia 22, Hanford 17, and Fresno 16.  These are the lowest dew points so far in this terrible freeze.  I keep looking northward to try to find something that would be helpful.  Some high clouds are entering the northern one-fourth of California, but satellite imagery shows they are very thin even up there and may dissipate before reaching central California.

 

Assuming skies remain mostly clear tonight, widespread mid to upper 20s are again likely with the very coldest unprotected low lying regions down to 22 to 24 and most flat terrain locations will range between 25 and 28.  Hillsides will generally be in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

 

Durations tonight have the potential of temperatures at or below 28 as long as 7 to 10 hours, worse case scenario.

 

The inversion will be a bit better tonight with temperatures at 34 feet generally 3 to 6 degrees warmer.

 

There is at least a chance that readings will be milder Friday morning as yet another moisture starved low pressure system races through.  Models even show a light chance of showers for the valley floor Thursday night through Friday morning, so theoretically most locations would be in the upper 20s to the mid 30s, but stay tuned.  This system, like its predecessors, is extremely cold with snow levels down to 1,000 to 2,000 feet.  As you might expect, the air mass behind this system is very cold and could lead to mid to upper 20s again Saturday morning and possibly  upper 20s to lower 30s Sunday morning.

 

Monday morning’s conditions are a big iffy now as they will depend on the timing of cloud cover advancing ahead of the next storm.  For now, Tuesday morning should be above freezing at most locations as the next weather system  moves through.  Models vary quite a bit for Wednesday and beyond.  Some are now suggesting yet another push of modified Arctic air behind this system which could mean a cold air mass might follow.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

25

Porterville

25

Ivanhoe

26

Woodlake

26

Strathmore

26

McFarland

26

Ducor

26

Tea Pot Dome

25

Lindsay

25

Exeter

24

Famoso

26

Madera

25

Belridge

25

Delano

27

North Bakersfield

26

Orosi

25

Orange Cove

25

Lindcove

24

Lindcove Hillside

31

Sanger River Bottom

21

Root Creek

24

Venice Hill

26

Rosedale

26

Jasmine

26

Arvin

26

Lamont

26

Plainview

25

Mettler

29

Edison

26

Maricopa

26

Holland Creek

29

Tivy Valley

25

Kite Road South

28

Kite Road North

25

 

Next Report: Approximately 10:00pm, if warranted