February 21, 2018
Summary: In my nearly 30 years as a meteorologist, this is by far the worse freeze I’ve seen at this time of year. I talked with one grower earlier this morning and his operation has been devastated. No doubt many of you have also suffered great losses. Sadly, this isn’t over yet as dew points remain extremely low and for tonight it does not seem cloud cover will help us out. Clouds did help last night, but then skies cleared and temperatures plummeted with widespread mid to upper 20s and even a few 23-24 degree readings.
The overall pattern is still a massive upper high over the eastern Pacific with that big ridge actually moving as far north as Alaska. A semi Arctic low pressure system is parked over the Great Basin with the jet stream running north to south from western Canada and into California.
The next system in the pipeline in this flow will begin to increase cloud cover Thursday with at least a chance of light showers over the valley floor. The vast majority of the precipitation will be over the mountain areas with snow falling as low as 1,000 to 2,000 feet. Clearing will be rapid late Thursday night and Friday as another shot of semi Arctic air moves in behind this system for more possible freeze conditions Friday and Saturday mornings.
The flow aloft will become northwesterly Sunday and Monday, moving a weather system in from the Gulf of Alaska. Ultimately, this system will be over water, increasing the chance of showers Tuesday. This will be another cold one with snow down to the foothills once again. As much as I hate to say it, a northerly flow will again set up behind this system, possibly…just possibly…setting up another cold weather episode with the chance of below freezing temperatures again Wednesday morning and maybe Thursday morning. How cold is up for speculation. Some models are going with mid to upper 20s while others show milder readings.
Even the two week model does not show temperatures coming up. In fact, this model is portraying well below average temperatures. But there is a piece of good news as it’s showing the possibility of above average precipitation.
Forecast: Mostly clear today and tonight. Increasing cloudiness Thursday with a chance of a few light showers late Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Partly cloudy Friday morning. Becoming mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Monday. Increasing cloudiness Monday night leading to a chance of showers Tuesday. Partly cloudy Tuesday night. Becoming mostly clear and colder Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 57/26/55/29/56 | Reedley 57/26/55/30/56 | Dinuba 58/25/54/29/55 | |
| Porterville 59/27/57/27/53 | Lindsay 58/26/58/30/53 | Delano 59/28/57/29/54 | |
| Bakersfield 59/33/58/34/53 | Arvin 60/27/58/31/53 | Taft 59/32/58/35/54 | |
| Lamont 59/28/58/32/53 | Pixley 58/27/58/30/54 | Tulare 57/26/57/30/53 | |
| Woodlake 58/26/58/29/54 | Hanford 59/28/56/31/53 | Orosi 57/26/56/29/53 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 27/56 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 28/60 |
Monday
Increasing clouds 31/62 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 37/60 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 29/58 |
Two Week Outlook: February 28 through March 6: If you’re looking for a milder weather regime, this model is not what you want to look at as well below average temperatures are likely. The good news, however, is this model is also projecting at least a better than even chance of rain.
February: This model doesn’t really grasp at any particular pattern through the month. In fact, central California, if you believe this model, should have temperatures close to seasonal values with near average precipitation, as well.
February, March, April: This model goes all the way through April and it is calling for a ridge of upper level high pressure off the southern California coast to be the most dominant, but not the only, feature during the spring months. If this model has any credence at all, temperatures should be marginally above average with below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through tonight with periods of near calm conditions. By late Thursday, winds will increase out of the northwest to 15 to 25 MPH at times with stronger gusts along the west side. Winds will diminish by Friday morning with generally light winds Friday night through Sunday.
Rain: Don’t hold your breath if you’re looking for a big rain event late Thursday and Thursday night. Models for Thursday indicate there’s just a chance of scattered light showers with the lion’s share of activity over the mountain areas where snow will fall down to 1,000 to 2,000 feet. Dry weather will return Friday and continue through Monday. The next shot of precipitation will arrive Tuesday. This system will be out of the Gulf of Alaska, giving a greater possibility of showers. This storm will also be a cold one with snow down into the foothills once again. Expect dry weather Wednesday through Friday with the possibility of showers beyond.
Frost: This damaging freeze event is not over. There is very little cloud cover to our north so generally clear skies are anticipated again tonight. Even though the sun will try to modify the air mass some, dew points remain in the mid to upper 20s which is extremely low for this time of year. This will allow for strong radiational cooling.
Coolest temperatures this morning, by the way, as of 6:00 am were down to 23 to 25 with widespread mid to upper 20s. similar conditions can be expected for Thursday morning.
Coldest locations tonight will drop to 23 to 25 degrees with widespread mid to upper 20s. durations in unprotected low spots could be as much as 8 to 10 hours.
The inversion tonight may be a little better with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 3 to 6 degrees warmer.
Friday morning is actually a tough call at this time as a relatively moisture starved Arctic low will move through late Thursday and Thursday night. The exit strategy of this storm varies from model to model, but if skies clear after midnight, temperatures again could fall into at least the 26 to 30 degree range. The air mass behind this system is modified Arctic air.
Mid 20s to low 30s are likely Saturday morning with upper 20s to lower 30s Sunday morning. Temperatures Tuesday morning will hopefully be above freezing dew to an increase in cloud cover and a chance of showers. The bad news is some models are picking up on another weather pattern similar to the current one. Of course, this would put us back to square one. It’s far too early to tell, but from my chair, for now, it is something to worry about. We’ll keep you posted.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
26 |
Porterville
26 |
Ivanhoe
26 |
Woodlake
27 |
| Strathmore
27 |
McFarland
27 |
Ducor
27 |
Tea Pot Dome
26 |
| Lindsay
25 |
Exeter
25 |
Famoso
28 |
Madera
26 |
| Belridge
26 |
Delano
27 |
North Bakersfield
27 |
Orosi
25 |
| Orange Cove
25 |
Lindcove
25 |
Lindcove Hillside
31 |
Sanger River Bottom
21 |
| Root Creek
25 |
Venice Hill
26 |
Rosedale
27 |
Jasmine
26 |
| Arvin
27 |
Lamont
28 |
Plainview
26 |
Mettler
29 |
| Edison
27 |
Maricopa
26 |
Holland Creek
30 |
Tivy Valley
27 |
| Kite Road South
30 |
Kite Road North
26 |
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 20s. Kern, Low to mid 20s.
Humidity: Visalia, 25%/85% Bakersfield, 20%/75%
Actual Humidity February 19, 2018: Delano, 75%/28%. Porterville, 85%/32%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 80%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 80%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days February 19, 2018: Stratford .88, Parlier .73, Blackwell .82 Lindcove .67, Arvin .79, Orange Cove .79, Porterville .70, Delano .72., Madera Two NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 54, Blackwell 56, Lindcove, 56, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 54, Delano 53, Madera Two 53
7.2
Record Temperatures: 80/28. Average Temperatures: 63/39
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1489, -552 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for February so far, 54.8 +5.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.64 season. or -5.40. Month to Date: .00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.10, or -2.86, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 825, Parlier, 849, Arvin, 740, Shafter, 900, Stratford, 846, Madera two, 1351, Lindcove, 976, Porterville, 1300. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:40 am Sunset: 5:46 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:03+
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 55 / 26 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 55 / 31 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 56 / 27 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 56 / 26 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 55 / 32 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 54 / 26 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1551 / 53 / 29 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 54 / 24 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1554 / 53 / 35 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 56 / 33 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.99 43 17.06 183 9.32 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.55 42 14.03 167 8.41 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.29 30 13.34 173 7.73 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.55 20 13.01 171 7.61 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.64 23 12.52 176 7.11 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.78 28 9.07 143 6.36 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 27 7.25 181 4.01 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 6 7.80 239 3.27 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 2.51 30 14.16 171 8.30 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.30 28 14.34 175 8.21 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.02 23 15.65 175 8.92 13.95
Next Report: Wednesday, February 21/pm