February 25, 2018
Summary: yet another very cold morning by the standards of late February. Some locations dipped below the 30 degree mark yet again. There were actually isolated pockets in the mid 20s. This is discussed below in the frost section.
Skies are mostly clear this morning over central California. Now it’s time to pay attention to the next low pressure system which is currently spreading showers over the Pacific Northwest. This low will begin to enter northern California early Monday and central California Monday afternoon and night. Models and satellite imagery depict half of the circulation pattern over land and the other half over water. This should give this system enough of a moisture field for a greater potential for light showers later Monday into early Tuesday.
Snow will fall down into the foothills again as the low forms a new circulation pattern west of Santa Maria by Tuesday morning. Even though this system is quite cold, it won’t be quite as cold as its predecessors. Skies will begin to clear Tuesday morning as weak high pressure sandwiches in between the exiting low and another low pressure system which will dive southward along the west coast Wednesday and Thursday. Models continue to indicate a greater moisture content with this storm with a greater potential for relatively greater rainfall amounts.
Interestingly enough, an elongated low will form from western Canada into California. Along the bottom side of the low, more of a west/northwest flow will develop, resulting in somewhat milder temperatures as we head towards next weekend with even a chance of showers continuing Friday into early Saturday.
The remainder of next weekend and well into the following week appears to be drier. With a westerly flow aloft, seasonal temperatures should prevail.
Forecast: Mostly clear today. Mostly clear skies will prevail tonight, possibly becoming partly cloudy after midnight. Mostly cloudy Monday and Monday night with light showers likely Monday afternoon through Monday night. Clearing Tuesday morning. Mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday with the exception of Kern County which will remain partly cloudy for a time. Mostly cloudy late Wednesday night through Friday with showers becoming likely Thursday with a chance of showers lasting through early Saturday. Partly cloudy Saturday night and Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 59/29/56/35/55 | Reedley 60/29/56/34/55 | Dinuba 58/28/56/34/54 | |
| Porterville 60/29/56/35/55 | Lindsay 59/28/58/35/54 | Delano 61/30/58/36/55 | |
| Bakersfield 60/35/57/37/53 | Arvin 61/31/60/37/53 | Taft 61/39/59/39/53 | |
| Lamont 60/30/59/36/53 | Pixley 60/29/58/35/52 | Tulare 58/28/56/34/53 | |
| Woodlake 58/29/56/35/54 | Hanford 60/30/56/36/55 | Orosi 60/29/55/34/54 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Partly cloudy 30/61 |
Thursday
Showers likely 39/56 |
Friday
Chance of showers 43/58 |
Saturday
AM showers possible 35/59 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 34/63 |
Two Week Outlook: March 2 through March 8: If you’re looking for a milder weather regime, this model is not what you want to look at as well below average temperatures are likely. The good news, however, is this model is also projecting at least a better than even chance of rain.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through tonight. Winds Monday and Monday night will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times with stronger gusts, especially along the west side. Winds Tuesday will decrease to around 5 to 12 MPH, becoming generally light and variable Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Rain: There does seem to be a legitimate chance of showers coming up Monday and Monday night. A low pressure system currently moving into the Pacific Northwest will race southward to a position off of Santa Maria by Monday night. Light showers will spread over the area Monday and Monday night with most areas potentially recording a few hundredths upwards to around fifteen hundredths. Dry weather will return by mid morning Tuesday and continue through Wednesday night.
The next system upstream will drop southward late Wednesday night and Thursday, eventually forming an elongated trough of low pressure from western Canada to southern California. The winds aloft over the southern portion of this low will be west/northwest and somewhat unstable. For now, showers seem likely Thursday and Thursday night with possibly a few showers lasting into early Saturday.
Rainfall amounts with this system should be higher, possibly as much as a quarter of an inch in some areas. Dry weather will return Saturday and continue well into next week.
Frost: As of 6:30 this morning, most locations were reporting low temperatures between 28 and 31. There were isolated pockets that were colder. Sanger and Orange Cove dropped to 25 degrees, but at least overnight the colder locations were not as widespread as previous nights.
Tonight should see a bit more modification. We have a low pressure system currently moving through the Pacific Northwest which will dive southward into northern and central California Monday and Monday night. The cloud deck ahead of the low has moved into northernmost California and will nudge steadily southward through tonight. Some models show cloud cover moving over the area after midnight while others hold off on the clouds until Monday morning. For tonight’s forecast, we’ll go with the slow moderation process with the colder locations in the upper 20s and most locations between 30 and 34. If the clouds do arrive in a timely manner, we could actually see all locations in the low to mid 30s.
Tuesday morning is also somewhat of a difficult forecast and also involves cloud cover. It’s possible some of the cloud cover will have exited our region, allowing temperatures in the upper 20s to the lower 30s in the colder spots. My gut feeling is cloud cover and wind conditions will probably hold temperatures in the 30s.
Wednesday morning’s readings could again fall into the upper 20s to the lower 30s as skies will be relatively clear with a cold air mass in place, but not quite as cold as recent standards. From Thursday morning through the weekend, lows will be above freezing due to cloud cover and showers Thursday and Friday. A milder westerly flow will develop over the weekend and into next week.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
29 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
31 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
30 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
28 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
31 |
Lamont
30 |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
31 |
Maricopa
30 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 20s. Kern, Mid to upper 20s.
Humidity: Visalia, 25%/90% Bakersfield, 25%/80%
Actual Humidity February 22, 2018: Delano, 79%/27%. Porterville, 86%/26%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 80%, Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 90%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days February 22, 2018: Stratford .84, Parlier .72, Blackwell .86 Lindcove .67, Arvin .83, Orange Cove .78, Porterville .70, Delano .73., Madera Two .73. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 53, Blackwell 55, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 50, Porterville 53, Delano 51, Madera Two 51
7.2
Record Temperatures: 79/30. Average Temperatures: 64/40
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1552, -528 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for February so far, 52.9 +3.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.64 season. or -5.61. Month to Date: .00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.10, or -3.00, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 870, Parlier, 893, Arvin, 775, Shafter, 938, Stratford, 885, Madera two, 1395, Lindcove, 1020, Porterville, 1343. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:36 am Sunset: 5:48 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:09
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 60 / 28 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 60 / 31 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 61 / 28 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 62 / 25 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 59 / 32 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 59 / 28 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1534 / 59 / 28 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 58 / 28 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1552 / 58 / 36 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.99 41 17.64 182 9.67 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.56 41 14.03 161 8.74 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.30 28 13.35 165 8.11 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.58 20 13.09 164 7.97 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.65 22 12.58 170 7.41 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.78 27 9.10 137 6.64 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 26 7.25 173 4.19 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 6 7.80 229 3.40 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 2.51 29 14.20 164 8.65 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.30 27 14.43 168 8.61 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.02 22 15.95 170 9.37 13.95
Next Report: Monday morning/February 26