February 26, 2018
Summary: A relatively cold low has now dropped southward into northern California. The associated cold front is draped across the lower Sacramento Valley and is moving steadily southward. There is a solid area of rain as far south as Santa Cruz along the coast and Modesto inland with snow showers now spreading almost to Yosemite.
The front, followed by the low, will continue its southward progression today, spreading showers over the area, especially this afternoon and tonight. This may actually be the first fairly significant rain event we’ve seen this month with possibly a tenth or two before this one’s over.
The low will drop into southern California by Tuesday afternoon, far enough to the south so that showers should be over by Tuesday morning. This storm is relatively cold, but not quite as cold as its predecessors. Even so, it’s possible snow may fall as low as 2,000 to 3,000 feet in the mountains on all sides of the valley. A weak ridge will temporarily fill in Tuesday night through Wednesday evening for generally clear skies. The good news is an even wetter system will arrive Thursday afternoon through Friday. This low will stretch from western Canada southward into central California. The winds aloft will be out of the west/northwest which should allow for good lift along the Sierra Nevada, but it may zap rainfall amounts along the west side and in Kern County due to rain shadows. Showers could last into early Saturday as the low will take its time moving off to the east.
The weekend looks dry as upper level high pressure builds in which should keep the weather dry through the middle of next week along with a moderate warming trend. Temperatures should recover to near average values by possibly as early as Monday.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness this morning. Showers this afternoon and tonight. Clearing late tonight leading to partly cloudy conditions Tuesday. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Increasing cloudiness Thursday with an increasing chance of showers Thursday afternoon. Showers becoming likely Thursday night through Friday night. Clearing Saturday. Becoming mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 55/33/53/29/59 | Reedley 54/34/53/29/60 | Dinuba 54/32/55/28/58 | |
| Porterville 58/34/53/39/61 | Lindsay 58/34/52/28/60 | Delano 59/35/55/30/60 | |
| Bakersfield 61/38/52/33/61 | Arvin 61/36/52/30/60 | Taft 60/40/52/37/61 | |
| Lamont 60/35/52/31/61 | Pixley 59/34/53/28/59 | Tulare 55/33/53/28/58 | |
| Woodlake 54/34/55/29/60 | Hanford 54/34/53/29/59 | Orosi 56/34/53/28/59 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Pm showers 41/63 |
Friday
Periods of rain 43/59 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 33/59 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 35/61 |
Monday
Mostly clear 37/66 |
Two Week Outlook: March 2 through March 8: If you’re looking for a milder weather regime, this model is not what you want to look at as well below average temperatures are likely. The good news, however, is this model is also projecting at least a better than even chance of rain.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be generally in the 5 to 10 MPH range today through Sunday night. The exception will be this afternoon where local gusts to 20 MPH are possible along the west side. Winds Monday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH possible along the west side. Winds will decrease Monday night to around 5 to 10 MPH with light winds Tuesday.
Rain: Showers are on the way. Rain has moved southward almost to Monterey along the coast and will be moving into Merced County over the next hour or two. It will spread into our neck of the woods during the late morning to early afternoon hours, and with any luck showers will continue on and off throughout the night. Rainfall amounts, especially north of Kern County, could average a tenth or two. That’s not much, but we’ll take it. Dry weather will return Tuesday through Wednesday night. Another somewhat juicier storm system will stretch from British Columbia to southern California. Since we will be on the southern flank of the low, the winds aloft will be out of the west. This is ideal for heavier precipitation over the Sierra Nevada, but on the flip side, it means less rain on the west side and in Kern County due to rain shadows. Even so, a quarter inch plus totals are possible from Thursday afternoon through Friday night north of Kern County and away from the Coast Range with lesser amounts in those two regions. Dry weather will return by later Friday night and continue through the weekend and probably through at least the middle of next week.
Frost: We should have plenty of clouds along with possible shower activity tonight to hold temperatures probably in the low to mid 30s at most locations. It’s possible that if clearing occurs, especially during the predawn hours, isolated spots could dip down into the lower 30s with even a small chance of upper 20s in the coldest locations. Below freezing temperatures are again likely Wednesday morning. Even though the air mass which will begin digging southward into the area later today through Tuesday, it’s not quite as cold as previous air masses which ravaged the area. Even so, coldest locations Wednesday morning could dip down to 26 to 27 with many locations ranging from 28 to 32. Fortunately, this appears to be a one night stand as clouds will increase ahead of the next Pacific storm later Wednesday night, probably keeping temperatures at all locations above freezing. Thursday and Friday mornings will be above freezing, but it’s possible we could see some low to mid 30s Saturday morning. However, the flow behind the Thursday/Friday system will be out of the west/northwest which is considerably milder with above freezing temperatures likely Sunday and beyond.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
AF |
Ivanhoe
AF |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
AF |
McFarland
AF |
Ducor
AF |
Tea Pot Dome
AF |
| Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
AF |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
AF |
Delano
AF |
North Bakersfield
AF |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
AF |
Jasmine
AF |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
AF |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
AF |
| Kite Road South
AF |
Kite Road North
AF |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern, Mid to upper 30s.
Humidity: Visalia, 55%/95% Bakersfield, 40%/90%
Actual Humidity February 24, 2018: Delano, 82%/22%. Porterville, 94%/24%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 20% tomorrow 70%, Bakersfield: Today 20% tomorrow 50%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days February 24, 2018: Stratford .85, Parlier .73, Blackwell .87 Lindcove .65, Arvin .78, Orange Cove .78, Porterville .70, Delano .73., Madera Two .73. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 52, Blackwell 55, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 50, Porterville 52, Delano 50, Madera Two 51
7.2
Record Temperatures: 80/30. Average Temperatures: 64/40
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1592, -514 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for February so far, 52.3 +2.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.65 season. or -5.74. Month to Date: .01
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.10, or -3.09, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 896, Parlier, 921, Arvin, 801, Shafter, 964, Stratford, 913, Madera two, 1422, Lindcove, 1051, Porterville, 1372. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:33 am Sunset: 5:50 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:14
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 62 / 31 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 62 / 34 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 62 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 63 / 32 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 63 / 34 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 61 / 30 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1548 / 60 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 62 / 30 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1554 / 59 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.99 41 17.64 181 9.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.56 40 14.03 159 8.83 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.30 28 13.35 163 8.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.58 20 13.09 162 8.06 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.65 22 12.58 168 7.48 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.78 26 9.10 135 6.72 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 26 7.25 171 4.23 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 6 7.80 227 3.43 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 2.51 29 14.20 162 8.74 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.30 26 14.43 166 8.71 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.02 21 15.95 168 9.48 13.95
Next Report: Monday, February 26/pm