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Forecast

February 26, 2018/pm report

February 26, 2018

Summary:  The center of circulation of a relatively cold upper low is just west of the Golden Gate this afternoon.  The associated cold front continues to move steadily down the valley.  As of the time of this writing, rain had reached into much of Fresno County and it will move into the south valley, probably reaching Kern County before sunset.  The area of rain is about 75 to 100 miles wide but is light so a tenth or two still seems plausible at many locations.  The low will slide slowly down the coast tonight and will be west of Santa Maria later tonight.  This will keep the chance of scattered showers through tonight, though they should start tapering off, if not ending, by sunrise or so.

 

The air mass swinging in behind this system is cold but at least marginally warmer than previous systems over the past week or so.  Instead of snow falling almost to the valley floor, snow levels this time around should be about 2,000 to 3,000 feet.  Skies will clear Tuesday with the possible exception of upslope clouds banking up against the Kern County mountains.  Those clouds should last through much of Tuesday.  Even where sunshine abounds, it will be chilly with readings only in the low to mid 50s.  It still looks like frost will be a challenge Wednesday morning, but not as bad as it has been.  More is discussed below.

 

The next Pacific storm is a horse of a different color.  A low pressure system will stretch from British Columbia through central California.  Since we will be on the southern flank of the low, the winds aloft will be out of the west, perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada.  That means a lot of lift will occur along the mountains for some substantial areas of rain.  Rain shadows will occur along the west side and in Kern County, but elsewhere quarter inch plus totals are possible.  This system will pull off to the northeast later Friday night and Saturday, ending the rain.  Upper level high pressure will then build in from the west and dominate the weekend and at least through the middle of next week.  A westerly flow will prevail so by Monday temperatures should be near average.

 

Forecast: Light rain spreading down the valley this afternoon, breaking off into scattered showers tonight.  Partly to mostly cloudy Tuesday morning.  Clearing during the afternoon.   Mostly clear Tuesday night through Wednesday night.  Increasing cloudiness Thursday morning.  Rain becoming likely during the mid to late afternoon.  Periods of rain Thursday night and Friday.  Mostly to partly cloudy Friday night with a chance of showers.  Partly cloudy Saturday morning, becoming mostly clear Saturday afternoon through Monday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 34/52/28/60 Reedley 35/53/28/59 Dinuba 34/52/27/58
Porterville 35/53/28/60 Lindsay 34/53/27/60 Delano 36/53/29/61
Bakersfield 38/52/32/61 Arvin 38/52/29/61 Taft 39/53/37/61
Lamont 36/52/29/60 Pixley 35/53/28/60 Tulare 34/53/27/58
Woodlake 34/54/28/61 Hanford 35/53/29/60 Orosi 34/53/28/59

 

Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest tonight at ten to fifteen MPH with locally stronger gusts, especially along the west side.  Winds Tuesday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, diminishing by evening.  Winds Tuesday night through Wednesday night will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.  Winds Thursday will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH.

 

Rain: As of the time of this writing, light rain was overspreading Fresno County and it will move over the south valley as the afternoon progresses.  The rain will break off into scattered showers tonight, ending by sunrise Tuesday.  Rainfall amounts should end up by being a tenth or two with locally more, mainly along the east side north of Kern County.  Dry weather will prevail Tuesday, probably into Thursday morning.  Rain will spread in from the northwest Thursday afternoon, continuing on and off through Friday with a chance of showers Friday night.  This system has greater potential for fairly substantial amounts of precipitation along the Sierra Nevada and even on the valley floor, one-quarter plus amounts are likely with the possible exception of the west side and Kern County where rain shadows will be more pronounced.  Dry weather will return Saturday and continue through at least the middle of next week.

 

Frost Discussion: Most locations will be above freezing tonight with the possible exception of some lower 30s, mainly in Fresno and Madera Counties where clearing will occur first.  Of more concern is Wednesday morning when  most, if  not all, locations will have clear skies.  The air mass moving into the valley is quite cold, but fortunately not quite as cold as earlier air masses.  Even so, coldest locations could dip down to 26 to 27 degrees Wednesday morning with many other locations between 28 and 33.  Thursday morning’s temperatures will depend in large part on the arrival of cloud cover ahead of the next storm that will spread rain in here.  If it remains clear Wednesday night, most locations will be between 28 and 34 with above freezing conditions Friday morning.  Low to mid 30s are possible Saturday and Sunday mornings, at least in the colder locations.  Modification will take place over the next week for above freezing conditions, at least through the middle of next week.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

AF

Porterville

AF

Ivanhoe

AF

Woodlake

AF

Strathmore

AF

McFarland

AF

Ducor

AF

Tea Pot Dome

AF

Lindsay

32

Exeter

32

Famoso

AF

Madera

32

Belridge

AF

Delano

AF

North Bakersfield

AF

Orosi

32

Orange Cove

31

Lindcove

32

Lindcove Hillside

AF

Sanger River Bottom

30

Root Creek

31

Venice Hill

32

Rosedale

AF

Jasmine

AF

Arvin

AF

Lamont

AF

Plainview

AF

Mettler

AF

Edison

AF

Maricopa

AF

Holland Creek

AF

Tivy Valley

AF

Kite Road South

AF

Kite Road North

AF

Next Report: Tuesday, February 27