March 3, 2018
Summary: As of 1:00pm, isolated thunderstorms were developing over western Fresno County and up into Merced County. Elsewhere, there were areas of showers all the way southward through Kern County. As more daytime heating and sunshine cause warm currents of air moving upwards, no doubt more isolated to scattered thunderstorms will break out. The freezing level taken early this morning over Oakland was only 3,400 feet, sloping to 4,700 feet above Vandenberg AFB. So it would seem the snow level is between 3,000 to 4,000 feet, possibly a bit lower in heavier showers.
The storm system itself is a bit behind schedule, so the chance of showers will continue deeper into the night. Where there are showers, there are clouds. They will probably help maintain slightly above freezing conditions at most locations through Monday morning. Skies will clear Sunday and continue to be mostly clear through Tuesday night as high pressure builds in from the west. A westerly flow in the upper atmosphere will become apparent from Wednesday and beyond. It will have embedded cloud cover from time to time.
There is a great deal of uncertainty about the weather for late Thursday night through Saturday. Most models this afternoon are backing off on a wet scenario, moving most of the moisture into northern California and the Pacific Northwest. However, with the flip flopping going on, I’m going to keep a chance of rain in the forecast.
Forecast: Mostly to partly cloudy tonight with scattered showers before midnight. Thunderstorms are possible during the evening hours. Showers tapering off after midnight with clearing Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night through Tuesday night. Partly cloudy Wednesday through Thursday. Increasing cloudiness Thursday night with a chance of rain Friday through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 32/56/31/62 | Reedley 33/57/32/62 | Dinuba 31/56/30/61` | |
| Porterville 34/57/31/63 | Lindsay 33/57/30/62 | Delano 34/56/33/63 | |
| Bakersfield 37/55/34/63 | Arvin 35/55/33/63 | Taft 36/57/37/63 | |
| Lamont 33/55/32/63 | Pixley 32/56/31/62 | Tulare 31/56/30/60 | |
| Woodlake 33/57/31/62 | Hanford 33/57/31/62 | Orosi 33/57/30/62 | |
Winds: Winds tonight will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 5 to 12 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH near the base of thunderstorms. Winds Sunday through Tuesday will generally be in the 5 to 12 MPH range with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours.
Rain: Areas of showers continue to move from west to east across the valley this afternoon. In addition, isolated thunderstorms are breaking out over western Fresno County northward through Merced County. This activity will likely increase for the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening hours. The low pressure system itself has lagged behind projections so it appears the chance of showers will continue deeper into the night than expected. Any showers will taper off after midnight with dry weather Sunday through at least Thursday.
From late Thursday night through Saturday, models are continuing their internal bickering. If there’s any agreement at all, it would be towards a drier forecast as most models show the rain line moving further north. Even so, a chance of rain is a good bet to keep in the forecast for Friday and Saturday.
The two week model out this afternoon continues to show a higher than normal chance of rain towards the middle of the month.
Frost: The weather remains very active this afternoon with areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The low pressure system is running several hours behind schedule, meaning showers and cloud cover will go much deeper into the night, with cloud cover probably remaining on at least the southern and eastern flanks of the valley. It appears this will be a low to mid 30s kind of night in most locations. Even upper 30s are possible where cloud cover remains locked in. It’s possible areas primarily along the west side that isolated pockets could fall down to 29 to 31 for short durations.
The risk factor will go up Monday as mostly clear skies will prevail Sunday night and Monday morning. Two different models peg Porterville at 33 Monday morning, putting low pockets down to 28 to 29. My feeling is most locations will remain in the low to mid 30s. the longer days and higher sun angle will begin to rapidly moderate temperatures Tuesday and beyond. We could see a few river bottom and like locations in the lower 30s Tuesday morning with most locations above freezing. From Wednesday and beyond, readings will be above freezing as a mild westerly flow gives us some pleasant days from mid week through the weekend, despite a chance of rain for Friday and Saturday.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
AF |
Porterville
AF |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
AF |
| Strathmore
AF |
McFarland
AF |
Ducor
AF |
Tea Pot Dome
AF |
| Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
AF |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
AF |
Delano
AF |
North Bakersfield
AF |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
AF |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
AF |
Jasmine
AF |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
AF |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
AF |
| Kite Road South
AF |
Kite Road North
AF |
Next report: Sunday, March 4