March 4, 2018
Summary: After a day of showers and thunderstorms, conditions settled down overnight, returning mostly clear skies north of Tulare County. The usual upslope clouds banked up against the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada and the valley facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains. Currently, Porterville is reporting overcast conditions with the base of the cloud deck at 3,500 feet. Bakersfield is also overcast and is reporting some fog with a visibility down to three quarters of a mile. Portions of Kern County and southeastern Tulare County may remain cloudy for a good deal of the day before drier air aloft begins to erode the cloud deck by this evening. With quiet conditions and relatively little cloud cover tonight, many locations will drop below freezing. More below in the frost section.
The broad picture shows upper level high pressure beginning to build in from the west while yesterday’s active system is now in the Great Basin. The upper high will dominate our pattern through mid week with a warming trend beginning Monday. By Wednesday, daytime highs will be approaching the 70 degree mark, possibly into the low to mid 70s in Kern County.
From Friday through Monday of next week, the pattern is still quite unclear. A milder low pressure system will be approaching the Oregon coast by Wednesday night, possibly moving a cold front into northern and central California Friday and Saturday. Models are simply inconclusive on this so we’ll continue to use the word chance as far as any precipitation is concerned. Another low may possibly, this time moving out of the Gulf of Alaska Sunday and Monday of next week, could also result in precipitation. Later next week also looks active and with the desperate need for more rain, let’s hope these systems come to pass.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy today except remaining mostly cloudy in Kern County and southeastern Tulare County through much of the day. Mostly clear tonight through Tuesday night with a warming trend. Partly cloudy Wednesday through Thursday night. Mostly cloudy Friday through Sunday with a chance of showers each day.
Short Term:
| Madera 58/30/62/33/69 | Reedley 58/31/63/34/70 | Dinuba 57/29/61/33/68 | |
| Porterville 56/30/63/34/71 | Lindsay 58/30/63/34/71 | Delano 57/31/65/37/72 | |
| Bakersfield 55/33/66/38/73 | Arvin 56/32/66/37/74 | Taft 57/37/66/41/72 | |
| Lamont 57/31/67/37/73 | Pixley 58/30/65/36/72 | Tulare 56/29/62/36/69 | |
| Woodlake 57/30/62/34/69 | Hanford 58/31/63/35/70 | Orosi 58/29/62/34/70 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Partly cloudy 40/71 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 44/71 |
Friday
Chance of showers 49/70 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 48/67 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 50/69 |
Two Week Outlook: March 11 through March 17: This model has reverted back to a pattern which would result in below average temperatures. It indicates a possibly significant trough of low pressure along the west coast so the chance of precipitation will be relatively high.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 12 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours through Wednesday.
Rain: The following are a few rainfall totals from the three day storm that ended yesterday: Parlier .89, Blackwell .14, Lindcove .97, Arvin .26, Orange Cove 1.40, Porterville .85, Delano .65, Madera 1.56.
Obviously, this was a huge impact storm. Now we return to dry weather through at least Thursday. On Friday through Tuesday, we may enjoy a wet period of time. A milder Pacific storm will affect northern California Friday and Saturday, possibly affecting central California. Models portray this system as having lots of subtropical moisture off shore during this time frame, which could raise the ante. However, some models just show the precip remaining to our north, leaving most of central California dry.
There is also a big cold trough of low pressure showing up for Sunday through Tuesday with central California on its southern flank. If this model were today’s forecast, we would receive precipitation, so a fairly decent chance of rain seems plausible for Sunday through Tuesday at times.
Frost: The coldest overnight low as of 6:00am was 30 degrees at Navelentia with just about everybody else near 32 to the mid 30s. The cloud deck over Kern County and portions of Tulare County will slowly erode from the northwest, but some may remain through much of the day. That means relatively clear skies will prevail tonight with a cold air mass remaining in place. This will allow good radiational cooling with generally upper 20s to low 30s in the riverbottoms or traditionally cold low spots and low to mid 30s elsewhere.
Fortunately, we’re into the time of year where durations are much shorter, partially due to the longer days, and air masses which typically modify quickly. That will be the case here. Daytime highs Monday will already bounce into the low to mid 60s and upper 60s to the mid 70s are likely Tuesday through Friday. Tonight, obviously, will be the main concern.
Longer term, there doesn’t appear to be anything out there that would result in unseasonal cold weather. A couple of models show a strong cold trough of low pressure moving down the west coast Monday or Tuesday of next week. We would be on the southern flank of this storm, so winds aloft would either be westerly or northwesterly, maintaining acceptable temperatures.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
30 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
33 |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
31 |
| Arvin
32 |
Lamont
31 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
34 |
| Edison
32 |
Maricopa
30 |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
30 |
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s Kern: Low to mid 30s
Humidity: Visalia: 50%-95% Bakersfield: 40%-75%
Actual Humidity March 2 2018: Delano, 90%/56%. Porterville, 96%/53%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70% 90% tomorrow Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days March 2, 2018: Stratford .66, Parlier .44, Blackwell .64 Lindcove .46, Arvin .70, Orange Cove .46, Porterville .47, Delano .57., Madera Two .48. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 52, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 50, Porterville 52, Delano 52, Madera Two 52
Record Temperatures: 80/26. Average Temperatures: 65/41
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1696, -482 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for February so far, 51.8 -1.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 2.90 season. or -4.93. Month to Date: 1.00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.47, or -2.98, Month to Date: .15
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 952, Parlier, 977, Arvin, 851, Shafter, 1007, Stratford, 965, Madera two, 1480, Lindcove, 1105, Porterville, 1433. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:25 am Sunset: 5:56 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:28
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 56 / 42 / 0.20 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 57 / 43 / 0.34 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 57 / 46 / 0.05 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 57 / 46 / 0.05 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 56 / 48 / 0.08 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 57 / 44 / 0.07 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1554 / 56 / 44 / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 53 / 45 / 0.29 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1556 / 51 / 46 / 0.00 /
STOCKTON 0.04 5.55 54 17.64 172 10.27 14.06
MODESTO T 4.34 47 14.03 151 9.32 13.11
MERCED 0.12 3.81 44 13.35 153 8.75 12.50
MADERA 0.17 3.28 38 13.09 152 8.61 12.02
FRESNO 0.31 3.21 41 12.58 159 7.90 11.50
HANFORD 0.04 2.48 35 9.10 127 7.15 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.08 1.55 35 7.25 161 4.49 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 6 7.80 217 3.59 5.18
SALINAS 0.07 3.53 38 14.29 154 9.26 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.16 4.09 44 14.48 156 9.30 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.10 2.53 25 16.08 159 10.09 13.95
Next Report: Sunday, March 4/PM