March 5, 2018
Summary: The air aloft is significantly warmer than it was 24 hours ago. Yesterday, the freezing level was between 3,000 and 4,000 feet. Today, over Oakland the freezing level was 6,000 feet and 6,800 feet over Vandenberg. This is all indicative of upper level high pressure building in from the eastern Pacific. Surface high pressure has also set up shop over the Great Basin, generating a weak off shore flow. All of this will mean relatively clear skies with perhaps a few high clouds at times for interest through Tuesday night.
On Wednesday, clouds will begin to increase ahead of a cold front which will move into northern California Thursday. Models do show a chance of light showers as far south as Fresno County, but even there amounts will be light and scattered in nature.
In the meantime, a new high will build in from the west Friday and Saturday. The winds aloft this whole week will generally be out of the west which is typically a mild pattern this time of year. Temperatures will shoot up possibly into the mid 70s as early as Wednesday, but cloud cover will result in slightly cooler temperatures Thursday.
The latest model runs are similar to previous runs which indicated a mild subtropical low will move into central California Sunday. Rainfall estimates are quite significant on the valley floor, even more so over the mountains where snow levels will be very high. Right behind it, a trough of low pressure will head southward out of the Gulf of Alaska, spreading more rain and mountain snow into central California Monday and Monday night. Indications are that between Tuesday and Thursday of next week, northern California will have active weather. For now, it’s too early to discern if central California will become involved in this activity. If not, at least the northern portions of the state should have a wet week next week. Of course, this is excellent for water supplies.
Forecast: Mostly clear with occasional high clouds and patchy night and morning fog through Tuesday night. Partly cloudy Wednesday then mostly cloudy late Wednesday night and Thursday with a chance of showers from Fresno County north. Variable cloudiness at times Friday through Saturday with increasing clouds Saturday night. Rain becoming likely at times Sunday through Monday night.
Short Term:
| Madera 30/69/36/75 | Reedley 33/70/36/75 | Dinuba 30/69/35/74 | |
| Porterville 32/72/36/76 | Lindsay 30/70/35/75 | Delano 33/72/38/76 | |
| Bakersfield 37/73/43/75 | Arvin 35/74/40/77 | Taft 44/72/46/75 | |
| Lamont 34/73/40/76 | Pixley 32/70/37/76 | Tulare 31/69/37/75 | |
| Woodlake 31/70/36/74 | Hanford 33/71/38/75 | Orosi 31/70/37/74 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 12 MPH through Thursday with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours.
Rain: Expect dry weather through Wednesday. Late Wednesday night and Thursday, a weakening cold front will move through northern California, possibly stalling out in north central California then dying a terrible death. It’s possible it may hold together long enough for a few light showers as far south as Madera and Fresno Counties. If rain falls at all, amounts would generally be less a tenth of an inch.
It now appears Friday and Saturday will be dry as a weak ridge builds in from the west. There is now a definite trend on models for Sunday and Monday of next week. On Sunday, a subtropical low will move in from the west/southwest, leading to an increasing chance of rain. Models vary a great deal on possible amounts, but some indicate this could be a significant event with good rainfall amounts, especially over the mountains. Just as this storm exits the premises, a deep trough will dig southward from the Gulf of Alaska, spreading more precipitation over the area.
Looking even farther down the road to Tuesday through Thursday of next week, models indicate there will be an active pattern for the Pacific Northwest and northern California. The southern limit of the precipitation is a bit blurry at this time due to expected model differences, but at least northern California could do pretty well next week. If we cross our fingers, maybe we can tug the rain line further south.
Frost: Dew points this afternoon are averaging in the mid 30s and with relatively clear skies tonight, many locations will drop into the low to mid 30s. I can’t rule out low spots in the upper 20s for short durations, but that would certainly be the exception rather than the rule. Rapid modification of the atmosphere will continue Tuesday and Wednesday as daytime highs move into the low to possibly even mid 70s by mid week. Overnight lows Wednesday morning will range in the mid 30s to the lower 40s. As more and more cloud cover moves in Wednesday night through Thursday night, readings will be well above freezing with even warmer overnight lows over the weekend and into next week. The longer term outlook does not indicate a pattern that would produce frost, so looking ahead everything looks fine.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
AF |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
AF |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
AF |
North Bakersfield
AF |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
AF |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
AF |
| Kite Road South
AF |
Kite Road North
AF |
Next report: Tuesday, March 6