March 6, 2018
Summary: Upper level high pressure continues to build into central California via the eastern Pacific Ocean. Rapid warming will continue through mid week as highs eclipse the 70 degree mark as early as this afternoon. There are high clouds overrunning the high which will be visible from time to time. Nevertheless, abundant sunshine should prevail through Wednesday. From Thursday through Saturday, a moist westerly flow will set up with weak embedded low pressure systems which will move inland from time to time. This will bring a small chance of showers at any given time from Thursday through Saturday. By Saturday night, models continue to indicate a subtropical low will approach the central and southern California coast. Some of the models this morning are not as bullish on the possibility of a significant precipitation event for central California. We’ll just have to wait and see if the model information shows this system being nudged a little farther north, increasing rainfall amounts.
From Sunday into Monday, another system will be digging southward from the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Central California would be flanked on the southern rim of the low, creating a mild and moist westerly flow into central California for a good chance at more rain. In fact, models are holding onto the idea that the pattern for next week will be an active one which hopefully will result in precipitation from time to time. Even the two week outlook out this morning is indicating a fairly high probability of decent rainfall amounts.
Forecast: Other than high clouds at times, it will be mostly clear through Wednesday. Partly cloudy Wednesday night. Variable cloudiness Thursday through Saturday with a small chance of showers at any given time. Rain will become likely later Saturday night through Sunday night. A chance of showers Monday through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 69/39/73/40/73 | Reedley 70/39/73/40/73 | Dinuba 69/38/72/41/72 | |
| Porterville 72/39/74/41/74 | Lindsay 72/39/73/40/75 | Delano 73/41/74/42/75 | |
| Bakersfield 75/45/75/46/76` | Arvin 75/42/74/44/76 | Taft 73/48/74/48/75 | |
| Lamont 74/43/74/45/76 | Pixley 73/38/74/41/74 | Tulare 71/39/72/40/73 | |
| Woodlake 72/38/73/40/73 | Hanford 71/39/73/40/73 | Orosi 71/38/73/40/73 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Chance of showers 53/70 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 50/66 |
Sunday
Periods of rain 50/70 |
Monday
Chance of showers 53/73 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 51/71 |
Two Week Outlook: March 13 through March 19: for the first time in a couple of weeks, this model is not calling for below average temperatures, but rather near to marginally above average temperatures. One thing that hasn’t changed is the fact that this model indicates the possibility of above average precipitation during this time frame.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 12 MPH through Wednesday night with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Thursday through Friday will be periodically out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH.
Rain: It is a rather complicated mess on models as far as the potential for rain goes anytime from Thursday through Tuesday of next week. A moist westerly flow will begin to increase cloud cover Thursday with even a chance of light showers. Weak ripples of low pressure will move through Friday through Saturday for a chance of light showers at any given time, although no doubt there will be plenty of dry slots in there.
A subtropical low will approach the central and southern California coast late Saturday through Sunday. Models are not pointing to the rainfall amounts they had been as the main dynamics will be from Kern County southward. Still, a decent chance of at least some rain is there.
From Sunday through Monday, a deep trough of low pressure will extend from off the British Columbia coast to off the central coast. A strong westerly component to the upper atmosphere will be in place for the likelihood of rain from time to time. Even the longer range outlooks going out from later next week and beyond are indicating an active pattern with the chance of precipitation any given day.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Low to mid 30s
Humidity: Visalia: 40%/90% Bakersfield: 20%/65%
Actual Humidity March 4 2018: Delano, 94%/41%. Porterville, 98%/45%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80% 60% tomorrow Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days March 4, 2018: Stratford .59, Parlier .38, Blackwell .58 Lindcove .40, Arvin .60, Orange Cove .42, Porterville .40, Delano .47., Madera Two .47. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 52, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 50, Porterville 53, Delano 52, Madera Two 52
Record Temperatures: 84/31. Average Temperatures: 66/42
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1730, -470 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for February so far, 49.8 -4.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 3.22 season. or -4.76. Month to Date: 1.32
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.57, or -2.96, Month to Date: .25
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 952, Parlier, 977, Arvin, 851, Shafter, 1007, Stratford, 965, Madera two, 1480, Lindcove, 1105, Porterville, 1433. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:23 am Sunset: 5:58 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:32
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 62 / 32 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 63 / 37 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 63 / 34 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 63 / 31 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 63 / 37 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 61 / 33 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1549 / 61 / 37 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 62 / 32 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1554 / 58 / 40 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 61 / 37 / 0.00 /
STOCKTON 0.00 5.60 54 17.88 172 10.42 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 4.45 47 14.09 149 9.47 13.11
MERCED 0.00 3.82 43 13.51 152 8.91 12.50
MADERA 0.00 3.29 37 13.19 150 8.78 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.22 40 12.87 160 8.05 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 2.52 35 9.21 126 7.30 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.57 34 7.29 160 4.57 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 6 7.81 215 3.63 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 3.56 38 14.79 157 9.42 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 4.09 43 14.63 154 9.49 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.53 25 16.22 157 10.30 13.95
Next Report: Tuesday, March 6/pm