March 6, 2018
Summary: Temperatures as of 1:00pm were in the upper 60s to even the lower 70s. a few locations, especially in Kern County, will zip right up into the mid 70s not only today, but through Friday. Short term, upper level high pressure is anchored off shore and extends inland over California. The surface low we’ve been talking about is weakening now and will no longer be a factor after tonight.
It’s later this week where models are just a complete mess. We want to revert Thursday back to a dry forecast but increase the chance of showers for Friday as models are now depicting a low moving through north/central California, possibly spreading showers over the valley, mainly north of Kern County. Beyond Friday, a very moist westerly flow will continue. Embedded within this flow are weak waves which will give us at least a chance of showers Saturday, as well.
In the meantime, for Saturday night and Sunday a subtropical low will move in from the eastern Pacific, mainly into southern California. For the most part, models show showers spreading as far north as Fresno County, but the main dynamics will be from Kern County southward.
Sunday into Monday, a deep trough of low pressure will extend from off the British Columbia coast to the northern half of the Golden State. This seems to be a good pattern for moving moisture around the bottom side of the low and into northern and central California.
Models are very inconsistent on the pattern for Monday night through Wednesday. Some show the storm track moving a bit further north with dry weather in our region. Others point to precipitation moving into our neck of the woods.
The two week model out this afternoon is very aggressive in calling for well below average temperatures with a good chance of rain.
Forecast: Mostly clear tonight with occasional high clouds. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday through Wednesday night. Variable cloudiness Thursday and Thursday night. Increasing cloudiness Friday leading to a chance of rain, especially during the afternoon. The chance of showers will continue Friday night and Saturday. Rain will become likely late Saturday night through Sunday night with partly cloudy skies Monday through Tuesday.
Short Term:
Madera 37/72/38/73 | Reedley 39/73/39/73 | Dinuba 36/72/38/73 | |
Porterville 38/74/41/74 | Lindsay 37/74/38/74 | Delano 41/74/42/75 | |
Bakersfield 44/75/46/75 | Arvin 40/75/41/76 | Taft 44/74/47/75 | |
Lamont 41/74/44/75 | Pixley 38/74/39/74 | Tulare 36/72/39/73 | |
Woodlake 37/73/39/74 | Hanford 40/74/42/74 | Orosi 36/73/38/73 |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 12 MPH through Friday with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours.
Rain: Expect dry weather to continue through Thursday and possibly Thursday night. Waves of low pressure caught up in a strong westerly flow aloft will result in a chance of showers Friday. By the time we get into Saturday night through Monday night, two individual storm systems will affect us. The first has subtropical characteristics with the main dose of energy moving into southern California and showers possibly as far north as Fresno. A deep trough of low pressure will dig southward from British Columbia to northern California. With some luck, we may see abundant moisture move in around the bottom side of the low, increasing the chance of rain for central California through Sunday night. For now, anyway, Monday through Wednesday of next week look dry. However, models are doing the flip flop routine for this time frame so my confidence isn’t the best for early to mid next week. For late next week and beyond, models do show a good chance of precipitation along with below average temperatures.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above 32 tonight.
Next report: Wednesday, March 7