March 8, 2018
Summary: Upper level high pressure covers the eastern Pacific, most of California, and just off shore. There remains a considerable amount of high, thin clouds moving over the top of the high and into California, but by and large there will be plenty of sunshine today and Friday. A peculiar upper level low will approach the area between Monterey and the Bay Area Friday. This could spread some light showers into the valley north of Kern County on Friday, but if this occurs at all, it should be mainly from Fresno County north.
Over the weekend is when our weather will go rapidly downhill. A subtropical storm will approach from the west/southwest, spreading rain over the entire area sometime Saturday and continuing on and off through Sunday. This will be a very warm system so snow levels may rise to above 8,000 feet. The pattern will settle down just a little bit Monday and Tuesday as weak high pressure builds in from the west, theoretically, anyway. By Wednesday, cooler systems will be moving into California. The amount of energy moving inland is not consistent on models, but at least it’s a pattern that would favor precipitation into the weekend and perhaps beyond.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy today and tonight. Mostly cloudy Friday with a chance of light showers from mainly Fresno north. Rain will begin to spread in from the west/southwest Saturday night and will continue well into Sunday night. Partly cloudy Monday and Tuesday with a chance of rain Wednesday and Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 73/46/73/48/65 | Reedley 75/46/73/49/65 | Dinuba 73/45/72/48/65 | |
| Porterville 75/45/73/48/67 | Lindsay 75/45/73/48/67 | Delano 75/46/73/49/68 | |
| Bakersfield 75/49/74/52/69 | Arvin 76/47/74/48/70 | Taft 74/48/74/51/68 | |
| Lamont 75/46/73/48/69 | Pixley 74/46/73/49/67 | Tulare 73/45/72/48/66 | |
| Woodlake 74/45/73/47/66 | Hanford 74/45/73/48/67 | Orosi 74/45/73/48/66 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Rain likely 54/69 |
Monday
AM rain possible 52/67 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 47/71 |
Wednesday
Chance of rain 46/66 |
Thursday
Chance of rain 44/67 |
Two Week Outlook: March 14 through March 20: Once again, the two week model is pointing to below average temperatures. One thing that hasn’t changed is the fact that this model indicates the possibility of above average precipitation during this time frame.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be less than 12 MPH through Saturday with periods of near calm conditions, especially nights and early mornings.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Friday morning. There will be a chance of light showers mainly from Fresno County northward Friday afternoon and Friday night. For now, it appears the south valley will remain dry. As a subtropical low approaches the southern and central California coasts, rain will spread in from the southwest Saturday night with rain likely at times Sunday and Sunday night. Model consistency is still not what I would like as some give a pretty good chance at some significant rain while others point to lighter amounts. The road map has also been redrawn for early next week, ranging from showers likely Monday and Tuesday to no precipitation whatsoever.
For late Wednesday and beyond, however, there is some consistency which leads me to believe we will enjoy periods of precipitation from time to time from Wednesday afternoon through the weekend.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Low to mid 30s
Humidity: Visalia: 30%/95% Bakersfield: 20%/65%
Actual Humidity March 6 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 96%/31%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40% 50% tomorrow Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days March 6, 2018: Stratford .68, Parlier .54, Blackwell .70 Lindcove .55, Arvin .68, Orange Cove .59, Porterville .53, Delano .NA, Madera Two .62. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 52, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 50, Porterville 53, Delano 52, Madera Two 52
Record Temperatures: 84/30. Average Temperatures: 66/43
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1757, -465 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for February so far, 50.2 -3.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 3.22 season. or -4.90. Month to Date: 1.32
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.57, or -3.05, Month to Date: .25
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 952, Parlier, 977, Arvin, 851, Shafter, 1007, Stratford, 965, Madera two, 1480, Lindcove, 1105, Porterville, 1433. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:20 am Sunset: 6:00 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:37
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 74 / 45 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 72 / 50 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 70 / 46 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 73 / 43 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 73 / 47 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 71 / 46 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1553 / 75 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 75 / 45 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 71 / 52 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 74 / 44 / 0.00 /
Rainfall Totals:
STOCKTON 0.00 5.60 53 17.89 169 10.57 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 4.45 46 14.09 146 9.62 13.11
MERCED 0.00 3.82 42 13.51 149 9.06 12.50
MADERA 0.00 3.29 37 13.19 148 8.93 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.22 39 12.87 157 8.19 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 2.52 34 9.21 124 7.43 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.57 34 7.29 156 4.66 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 5 7.81 212 3.68 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 3.56 37 14.79 154 9.58 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 4.09 42 14.63 151 9.68 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.53 24 16.22 154 10.50 13.95
Next Report: Thursday, March 8/pm