March 10, 2018
Summary: Heavy mid and high level clouds are streaming into California from the subtropics. A low pressure system associated with this cloud cover will move closer to the coast this afternoon. Already this morning, Doppler radar has been indicating isolated light showers over the valley. However, the deeper moisture is just off shore and will arrive this afternoon. Rain will continue tonight but it now appears Sunday and Monday will be dry days.
A much colder and stronger low pressure system will dig southward Tuesday along the west coast. A low will form off the Oregon coast and move southward parallel to the coast. It will be off the northern California coast later Tuesday and Wednesday. Models show this system to be a complex, slow mover. By late Wednesday, the low will be approaching the central California coast. Models also show a strong difference in pressure between the low and southern California. Strong winds, especially in Kern County, are possible mainly Thursday and Friday. This is something we’ll have to detail as we get closer to the event. Periods of rain will continue Wednesday night through Sunday. The timing of all this is a bit difficult to discern at this time as bands of moisture rotating around low pressure tough to nail down.
The two week outlook for later next week and the following week is still calling for a good chance of rain and well below average temperatures.
Forecast: Cloudy today with a chance of light showers this morning. Rain will spread in from the west/southwest this afternoon. Rain tonight. Partly cloudy Sunday through Monday. Increasing cloudiness again Tuesday with rain becoming likely in the afternoon. Rain will continue on and off Wednesday through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 65/52/69/50/74 | Reedley 66/51/71/49/73 | Dinuba 65/50/72/47/72 | |
| Porterville 66/53/72/47/75 | Lindsay 67/52/72/46/73 | Delano 67/53/73/51/76 | |
| Bakersfield 68/54/74/54/76 | Arvin 67/53/73/52/75 | Taft 67/56/74/54/75 | |
| Lamont 68/53/74/53/75 | Pixley 66/52/72/50/74 | Tulare 66/51/72/46/73 | |
| Woodlake 65/51/71/49/74 | Hanford 65/53/72/50/73 | Orosi 66/53/72/50/73 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
PM rain 55/68 |
Wednesday
Rain likely 50/61 |
Thursday
Chance of rain 38/66 |
Friday
Chance of rain 41/68 |
Saturday
Chance of rain 39/62 |
Two Week Outlook: March 17 through March 23: Once again, the two week model is pointing to below average temperatures. One thing that hasn’t changed is the fact that this model indicates the possibility of above average precipitation during this time frame.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be less than 12 MPH through Monday with periods of near calm conditions, especially nights and early mornings.
Rain: A huge plume of subtropical moisture will move on shore this afternoon, resulting in the likelihood of rain. Models vary a great deal on rainfall amounts, but somewhere between a quarter and one-half inch seems plausible at this time. Snow levels will be very high with this system and will average around 8,500 feet. The backside of this system will clear the area by late Saturday night.
It now appears Sunday and Monday will be dry, but precipitation will begin again by Tuesday afternoon. This storm is much stronger and much colder. It has the potential to drop significant rain on the valley floor with heavy precipitation over the Sierra Nevada.
A strong low will drift slowly down the coast Wednesday and Thursday with periods of rain at times. Even though the low will no longer be on the weather map Friday through Sunday, showers will continue to be possible during this time frame.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s Kern: Low to mid 50s
Humidity: Visalia: 60%/95% Bakersfield: 60%/95%
Actual Humidity March 8, 2018: Delano, 81%/27%, Porterville, 78%/25%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0% tomorrow 50% Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days March 8, 2018: Stratford .73, Parlier .62, Blackwell .73 Lindcove .63, Arvin .71, Orange Cove .68, Porterville .62, Delano .61, Madera Two .61. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 53, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 55, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 50, Porterville 53, Delano 53, Madera Two 52
Record Temperatures: 86/32. Average Temperatures: 67/44
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1471, -473 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for February so far, 52.0 -2.05
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 3.22 season. or -5.04. Month to Date: 1.32
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.57, or -3.13, Month to Date: .25
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 952, Parlier, 977, Arvin, 851, Shafter, 1007, Stratford, 965, Madera two, 1480, Lindcove, 1105, Porterville, 1433. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:17 am Sunset: 6:02 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:42
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 70 / 50 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 73 / 50 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 75 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 75 / 51 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 76 / 49 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 78 / 51 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 74 / 50 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 75 / 52 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 76 / 47 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1554 / 75 / 53 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 69 / 52 / 0.00 /
Rainfall Totals:
STOCKTON 0.00 5.60 52 17.89 167 10.73 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 4.45 46 14.09 144 9.77 13.11
MERCED 0.00 3.82 41 13.51 146 9.24 12.50
MADERA 0.00 3.29 36 13.19 145 9.08 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.22 39 12.87 155 8.33 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 2.52 33 9.21 122 7.57 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.57 33 7.29 154 4.74 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 5 7.81 210 3.72 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 3.56 37 14.79 152 9.74 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 4.09 41 14.63 148 9.87 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.53 24 16.22 152 10.69 13.95
Next Report: Saturday, March 10/PM